One of the advantages of the KRACH rating system is that it lets you
not only say whether one teams is better than another, but quantify
that difference, in terms of a probability that one or the other would
win a head-to-head game. I've gone through the NCAA tournament and
worked out the probability for each team of advancing to the regional
finals, Frozen Four[TM], championship game, or national title, given
their potential opponents. Here they are:

                             ____O d d s   o f   w i n n i n g____
Seed ___Team___      KRACH   1 game  2 games   3 games    4 games

1M Minnesota         554.23  73.91%  43.09%    18.89%     10.33%
2M Minnesota-Duluth  503.50  70.4%   38.00%    15.82%      8.286%
3M Michigan State    211.67  29.6%   10.06%     2.429%     0.7847%
4M Notre Dame        195.67  26.09%   8.851%    2.021%     0.6198%

1E Maine             596.95  82.17%  54.12%    31.97%     15.29%
2E Ohio State        269.18  43.94%  16.51%     6.676%     2.008%
3E Wisconsin         343.45  56.06%  24.08%    11.1%       3.902%
4E Harvard           129.54  17.83%   5.283%    1.341%     0.2362%

1N Boston College    575.60  87.33%  60.95%    34.87%     16.38%
2N Michigan          274.88  55.67%  21.12%     8.387%     2.558%
3N New Hampshire     218.87  44.33%  14.73%     5.099%     1.331%
4N Niagara           83.541  12.67%   3.197%    0.5542%    0.06805%

1W North Dakota      981.84  94.59%  70.84%    48.39%     32.79%
2W Denver            397.68  64.14%  20.53%     9.704%     4.53%
3W Miami             222.32  35.86%   7.81%     2.643%     0.8811%
4W Holy Cross        56.126   5.407%  0.8198%   0.09718%   0.01132%

Credits: the KRACH ratings are based on the results of the entire
season from US College Hockey Online, and the program to calculate the
KRACH and the probabilities was written by me and run on USCHO's
server. Ken Butler first developed KRACH, which is an application to
college hockey of a method independently discovered by Zermelo and by
Bradley and Terry.

                                          John Whelan, Cornell '91
                                                 [log in to unmask]
                                     http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/