Once again, it's the ECAC Tiebreaking Bonanza!  With the final weekend of
the ECAC season approaching, here's a breakdown of where each team in the
league could finish.  Now that every team in the league is guaranteed a
playoff spot, I think some of the drama has gone out of this coming
weekend's games.  Still, there's a bit of jockeying for seeds to be done.
As always, I'm greatly indebted to John Whelan's excellent playoff
possibilities script at http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2002/ecac.cgiframe.html

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than those two teams tied.  For example, Union wins the head-to-
     head tiebreaker with Clarkson with a 1-0-1 record, but in a four-way
     tie involving those two plus Brown and Colgate, Union would actually
     be seeded lower than Clarkson.

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
6. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

(Note the change to top four and eight, as opposed to top five and ten last
year, due to the new playoff format)

Though I've never seen it listed, I believe there is a seventh tiebreaker,
consisting of a coin flip between two teams or a drawing of lots among
three or more teams.  There is a potential tie between Colgate and St.
Lawrence that could require a seventh tiebreaker (although it involves,
among other things, St. Lawrence losing to Harvard by at least 13 goals).


Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Princeton, at Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  One more point wraps up first place.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes second if they lose twice and Harvard sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched second place and can do no better
     without help.
     BEST CASE:  A sweep combined with two Cornell losses would give
     Harvard first place.
     WORST CASE:  Second.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Cornell.

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Colgate, Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Locks up third place with one point.
     BEST CASE:  Third.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to fifth if they lose twice and both Dart-
     mouth and Brown sweep.  This would set up a three-way tie among Yale,
     Dartmouth, and Brown, with the tiebreakers putting the Elis fifth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Dartmouth and Brown.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fourth place with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes third with two wins if Yale loses twice.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to seventh if they get swept, Clarkson wins twice,
     Union picks up at least two points, and either Brown gets at least
     one point or Union finishes in the top four (which would require the
     Dutchmen to get at least three points).
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale and Colgate; loses to Union; could win or
     lose against Brown and Clarkson.

Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two points will give Brown fifth place.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish third with a sweep if Dartmouth does not
     sweep and Yale loses twice.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes seventh if they lose twice, Dartmouth gets at
     least one point, Union gets at least three points, and Clarkson does
     not lose to Harvard.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale and Colgate; loses to Clarkson; could win or
     lose against Dartmouth and Union.

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Vermont, Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins guarantee fifth place.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches fourth with a sweep if Brown gets no more than
     one point.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to eighth if they lose twice, Clarkson gets
     at least two points, and Colgate gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth, Vermont, and St. Lawrence; could win
     or lose against Brown, Clarkson, and Colgate.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches seventh with three points.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fourth if they sweep, Dartmouth loses twice,
     Union loses to Vermont, and Brown does not beat St. Lawrence.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to tenth if they lose twice, Vermont sweeps, St.
     Lawrence gets at least three points, and Colgate gets at least two
     points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown and Colgate; loses to St. Lawrence; could
     win or lose against Dartmouth, Union, and Vermont.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Yale, at Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points will guarantee eighth place.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches sixth with a sweep if Union gets no more than
     one point and Clarkson gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish in tenth if they lose twice and Vermont and
     St. Lawrence get at least three points each.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Dartmouth, Brown, and Clarkson; could win or
     lose against Union, Vermont, and St. Lawrence.

Vermont:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Union, at Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep will wrap up ninth place for the Catamounts.
     BEST CASE:  Would climb to seventh if they sweep, Clarkson loses
     twice, and Colgate gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to tenth if they lose twice and St. Lawrence does
     not.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; loses to Union; could win or lose
     against Clarkson and Colgate.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Brown, at Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Is guaranteed tenth place and can do no better without
     help.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches seventh with two wins if Clarkson and Colgate
     get no more than one point each and Vermont does not sweep.
     WORST CASE:  Tenth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson; loses to Union and Vermont; could win
     or lose against Colgate.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Dartmouth, Vermont.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches eleventh place with one point.
     BEST CASE:  Eleventh.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if they lose twice and Princeton
     sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Princeton.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes eleventh with a sweep if Rensselaer loses twice.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer.


Bill Fenwick                                                 DJF   5/27/94
Cornell '86 and '95                                          JCF   12/2/97
LET'S GO RED!!
My wife says I pay more attention to hockey than I do to our marriage, which
is of course ridiculous... after all, we've been together for 11 seasons...