At 9:07 AM -0500 3/26/97, Bill Fenwick wrote:
> On Mar 25, 15:11, Consultant wrote:
> >Altitude Teams:  One of the CC players' parents I met during the game
> >(Peters) told me CC owned something like a 20-1 record when leading after
> >two periods.  CC weathered the storm early in the third as did DU later and
> >took the game away in the later end.  A possible explanation -- high
> >altitude practices?
>
> Maybe, but I've seen numbers like this bandied about for a number of good
> teams.
> Cornell, for example, was 17-0-1 when leading after two periods (though
>it was
> feast or famine for the Big Red, who were 0-6-1 when *trailing* after
>two).  I
> believe Clarkson and Miami, to name a couple others, had similar
>performances.
> I
> suspect it boils down to this:  if you're a good team, you *shouldn't* be
> blowing leads in the third period.
 
Based on what I've seen in the past, I would go a step further and say that
virtually everyone has a very good record when leading after two.
Merrimack, for instance, was 11-0-0 this year when leading after two.  When
they were 10-19-5 last season, they were still 9-1-0 when leading after two
(thus 1-18-5 when tied or behind).
 
What you need to look at here is not the record but the number of games
involved.  Leading half your games after two is better than leading a third
of them.  And the better teams will tend to lead more times after two.
 
You might then be able to make a case that the second period is the most
important period of a game.  I haven't looked into this enough to agree
with that yet, however.
 
---                                                                   ---
Mike Machnik                [log in to unmask]               *HMM* 11/13/93
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