Using the 3/17/97 edition of CHODR to forecast the scoring rates in each
possible NCAA game, a joint Poisson model to convert these to
probabilities for winning each game, and keeping track across the
brackets gives the following probabilities for teams to advance to each
round of the playoffs.
 
            Qtr     Semi   Final   Champ
Michigan    100%     77%    58%     42%
Clarkson    100%     53%    30%     13%
BU          100%     60%    21%     11%
UNH          65%     34%    20%      9%
N. Dakota   100%     51%    23%      8%
Miami        64%     35%    17%      7%
Minn         60%     16%     8%      4%
Denver       56%     24%     7%      3%
CC           35%     13%     6%      2%
Cornell      36%     14%     5%      1%
Vermont      44%     16%     4%      1%
MSU          40%     14%     3%      1%
 
Notes:
These assume no fatigue, home crowd, last change, or momentum effects.
 
Michigan dominates CHODR (#1 in both offense and defense) so they have
a big effect on the calculations above.  Note how a team's chance of
surviving to the next round dives when their bracket hits Michigan.
 
Current CHODR and predicted scores for this weekend's games can be
found as always at  http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr
 
Robin Lock
St. Lawrence University
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