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| Date: | Sun, 19 Mar 1995 09:34:55 EST |
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Below are listed the final YAM2 rankings for the year based on
the two scenarios for today's CCHA championship. This has been a fun
exercise this year. Hopefully next year we will have a YAM3 which will
have a statistical basis rather than an intuitive one. Good luck
to all the tournament teams!!!
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If Michigan State defeats LSSU, the ranking will be as
follows:
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YAM2 RPI Norm. YAM2
Rank Rank W-L% Sched. Metric
1 1 Boston_University 0.797 0.963 0.768
2 3 Maine 0.800 0.928 0.742
3 2 Michigan 0.792 0.936 0.741
4 6 Colorado_College 0.726 0.922 0.670
5 5 New_Hampshire 0.686 0.957 0.656
6 7 Michigan_State 0.697 0.930 0.649
7 8 Clarkson 0.686 0.919 0.630
8 4 Minnesota 0.622 1.000 0.622
9 12 Bowling_Green 0.676 0.888 0.600
10 9 Wisconsin 0.610 0.964 0.588
11 10 Denver 0.625 0.939 0.587
12 11 Lake_Superior 0.615 0.934 0.575
13 15 Vermont 0.571 0.922 0.527
14 14 Princeton 0.561 0.929 0.521
15 13 Northeastern 0.529 0.968 0.512
16 18 RPI 0.571 0.894 0.511
17 17 Brown 0.550 0.921 0.507
18 19 Colgate 0.542 0.905 0.490
19 21 Miami 0.539 0.902 0.486
20 16 North_Dakota 0.500 0.959 0.480
21 23 Harvard 0.500 0.914 0.457
22 24 Mass_Lowell 0.475 0.928 0.441
23 20 St_Cloud 0.461 0.951 0.438
24 22 Providence 0.460 0.950 0.437
25 27 Minnesota-Duluth 0.474 0.918 0.435
26 26 Western_Michigan 0.461 0.932 0.429
27 29 Merrimack 0.456 0.918 0.419
28 25 Michigan_Tech 0.421 0.959 0.404
29 28 St_Lawrence 0.417 0.947 0.395
30 30 Cornell 0.429 0.913 0.391
31 34 Ferris_State 0.389 0.908 0.353
32 31 Dartmouth 0.370 0.922 0.342
33 33 Northern_Michigan 0.346 0.934 0.323
34 32 Boston_College 0.343 0.936 0.321
35 35 Illinois-Chicago 0.351 0.911 0.320
36 38 Union 0.357 0.876 0.313
37 37 Yale 0.339 0.902 0.306
38 36 Alaska-Anchorage 0.306 0.924 0.282
39 39 Notre_Dame 0.271 0.908 0.246
40 40 Alaska-Fairbanks 0.259 0.885 0.229
41 43 Air_Force 0.262 0.803 0.210
42 41 Ohio_State 0.194 0.916 0.178
43 42 Mass_Amherst 0.191 0.907 0.173
44 44 Army 0.091 0.749 0.068
***********************************************************************
If LSSU defeats Michigan State, the ranking will be as
follows:
***********************************************************************
YAM2 RPI Norm. YAM2
Rank Rank W-L% Sched. Metric
1 1 Boston_University 0.797 0.964 0.768
2 3 Maine 0.800 0.928 0.743
3 2 Michigan 0.792 0.937 0.741
4 6 Colorado_College 0.726 0.923 0.670
5 5 New_Hampshire 0.686 0.957 0.656
6 8 Clarkson 0.686 0.919 0.630
7 7 Michigan_State 0.671 0.931 0.625
8 4 Minnesota 0.622 1.000 0.622
9T 10 Lake_Superior 0.641 0.935 0.599
9T 12 Bowling_Green 0.676 0.887 0.599
11 9 Wisconsin 0.610 0.965 0.588
12 11 Denver 0.625 0.939 0.587
13 14 Vermont 0.571 0.923 0.528
14 15 Princeton 0.561 0.929 0.521
15 13 Northeastern 0.529 0.970 0.513
16 18 RPI 0.571 0.895 0.511
17 17 Brown 0.550 0.922 0.507
18 19 Colgate 0.542 0.906 0.491
19 20 Miami 0.539 0.903 0.486
20 16 North_Dakota 0.500 0.960 0.480
21 23 Harvard 0.500 0.915 0.457
22 24 Mass_Lowell 0.475 0.929 0.441
23 21 St_Cloud 0.461 0.951 0.438
24 22 Providence 0.460 0.951 0.437
25 27 Minnesota-Duluth 0.474 0.918 0.435
26 26 Western_Michigan 0.461 0.934 0.430
27 29 Merrimack 0.456 0.919 0.419
28 25 Michigan_Tech 0.421 0.960 0.404
29 28 St_Lawrence 0.417 0.949 0.396
30 30 Cornell 0.429 0.912 0.391
31 32 Ferris_State 0.389 0.909 0.354
32 31 Dartmouth 0.370 0.923 0.342
33 33 Northern_Michigan 0.346 0.935 0.324
34 34 Boston_College 0.343 0.937 0.321
35 35 Illinois-Chicago 0.351 0.909 0.320
36 38 Union 0.357 0.877 0.313
37 37 Yale 0.339 0.903 0.306
38 36 Alaska-Anchorage 0.306 0.925 0.283
39 39 Notre_Dame 0.271 0.908 0.246
40 40 Alaska-Fairbanks 0.259 0.884 0.228
41 43 Air_Force 0.262 0.803 0.210
42 41 Ohio_State 0.194 0.917 0.178
43 42 Mass_Amherst 0.191 0.908 0.174
44 44 Army 0.091 0.750 0.068
The YAM2 is an intuitively based simple formula which seeks to
measure accomplishment over the course of the season. It will not
identify the teams which are currently hot, but views the season as
a whole.
YAM2 differs from the Rating Percentage Index primarily in its
relationship between Win% and Strength of Schedule. In YAM2 this is a
multiplicative relationship, whereas in the RPI it is additive.
YAM2 = (Win%) x (Strength of Sched.)
Strength of schedule is quantified the same way as in RPI: namely
2 parts Opp% added to 1 part Opp-Opp%. In this implementation the strength
of schedule is normalized to the value of the stongest schedule (Minnesota
this week). Also, as in the RPI, the head to head games are subtracted
from the records before calculating the Opp% in order to prevent "inverse"
effects on the ranking metric.
YAM2 gives equal *mathematical* weight to Win% and Strength of Schedule.
However, since Strength of Schedule inherently varies less than Win%, SOS will
produce less effect than Win% upon the ranking placements (approximately
+/- five positions, maximum, from experience).
As a property of the multiplicative relationship between Win%
and Strength of Schedule, YAM2 will not produce "inverse" ranking
effects. For instance, it will not raise a ranking if a team goes
to MN and loses two games (except in *very* unusual circumstances:-).
-- Dick Tuthill
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