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Tue, 22 Feb 2000 14:03:19 -0500 |
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UNET Technology Services |
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About a week ago, as John, Ken and I were discussing the purposes
and goals of ranking systems, John wrote, in part..
> Incidentally I'll repeat a suggest I made last year on how HEAL could
> be Quinnipiac-proofed: Instead of saying that a team's Tournament
> Index is (up to an overall factor) the weighted (by number of games
> against that opponent) sum of the Preliminary Indices of the teams
> it's beaten [counting each tie as half a win] divided by the number of
> games, why not recursively define the TI as the weighted sum of the
> TIs of the teams you've beaten, divided by your number of games?
...
Such a challenge! :-)
The ratings that follow implement John's suggestion of a "Recursive
HEAL", that I'll call RHEAL. I post it here on Hockey-L, since it is part
of Hockey-L's discussion, and because it is so radically different from
HEAL ratings, that I don't quite know what we're measuring! But it
certainly is "Quinnipiac-proofed", for better or worse.
By the way, ECAC RHEAL converges to a steady state in about 10
iterations, making only slight adjustments to HEAL. Since John has
published a Bradley-Terry ECAC ranking, I've discontinued ECAC
HEAL.
The Men's D-I ranking requires many iterations (> 10 and < 100) to
settle into a steady state. No matter what (PI) seeding I used, it
converged to the same steady state.
So here we go ... "Weak schedules" need not apply ...
RHEAL for Men's Division I College Hockey, through 2000-02-20
Compiled by Wayne T. Smith
This report includes results from 748 Division I games.
Last
Rank Week School Played Record HEAL RHEAL
1 Wisconsin 32 25- 6- 1 100.00( 1) 100.00
2 New Hampshire 32 20- 7- 5 96.38( 2) 96.59
3 Michigan 32 22- 7- 3 88.06( 8) 89.80
4 North Dakota 32 22- 7- 3 88.62( 7) 87.56
5 Boston University 33 20- 7- 6 89.97( 4) 86.97
6 Boston College 30 20- 9- 1 84.32(10) 85.17
7 Michigan State 32 21- 9- 2 78.62(11) 79.33
8 Maine 30 19- 7- 4 88.91( 6) 78.29
9 St Lawrence 26 17- 7- 2 85.97( 9) 77.46
10 Colgate 26 18- 7- 1 89.28( 5) 77.14
11 Ferris State 32 17-13- 2 72.98(14) 73.77
12 St Cloud 28 16-10- 2 71.94(15) 71.43
13 Providence 32 16-15- 1 68.53(17) 68.84
14 Minnesota 32 17-13- 2 68.74(16) 68.69
15 Northern Michigan 32 19- 9- 4 64.52(20) 68.02
16 Lake Superior 30 15-13- 2 64.84(19) 67.76
17 Northeastern 30 12-13- 5 66.97(18) 67.09
18 MSU-Mankato 28 16-11- 1 63.87(21) 62.65
19 Miami 30 13-14- 3 59.20(25) 61.60
20 Rensselaer 29 17-10- 2 74.35(12) 59.46
21 Colorado College 33 16-15- 2 60.06(23) 55.77
22 Nebraska-Omaha 32 12-15- 5 53.10(30) 54.77
23 Princeton 22 9-10- 3 60.30(22) 53.89
24 Cornell 24 11-11- 2 55.89(28) 53.51
25 Merrimack 31 11-15- 5 52.26(32) 51.01
26 Notre Dame 36 14-15- 7 49.63(34) 50.91
27 Niagara 23 16- 6- 1 90.46( 3) 50.14
28 Clarkson 27 11-13- 3 59.64(24) 48.28
29 Bowling Green 28 11-16- 1 46.44(38) 47.93
30 Western Michigan 30 10-17- 3 49.72(33) 47.92
31 Yale 24 9-11- 4 55.61(29) 46.79
32 Minnesota-Duluth 28 10-18- 0 45.28(39) 46.07
33 Alaska-Anchorage 30 12-15- 3 47.05(36) 44.37
34 Vermont 17 5- 9- 3 49.61(35) 43.71
35 Ohio State 30 8-18- 4 41.72(43) 42.28
36 Harvard 24 8-14- 2 42.63(42) 42.09
37 Dartmouth 24 8-12- 4 44.83(40) 41.82
38 Mass Amherst 30 10-16- 4 47.03(37) 41.00
39 Denver 34 11-21- 2 40.11(44) 40.06
40 Brown 24 6-16- 2 37.49(48) 34.56
41 Union 27 7-19- 1 38.63(46) 29.71
42 Mass Lowell 31 8-20- 3 34.62(49) 28.44
43 Alaska-Fairbanks 28 4-23- 1 20.31(52) 20.31
44 Michigan Tech 34 4-30- 0 13.89(53) 15.24
45 Air Force 16 7- 8- 1 43.01(41) 7.94
46 Army 19 7-10- 2 39.29(45) 5.55
47 Iona 22 11- 8- 3 56.69(27) 3.11
48 Quinnipiac 25 18- 4- 3 73.34(13) 2.51
49 Sacred Heart 24 12- 9- 3 57.57(26) 2.40
50 Canisius 21 11- 9- 1 52.43(31) 1.75
51 American Int'l 18 5-10- 3 23.61(51) 1.30
52 Connecticut 23 8-14- 1 38.37(47) 1.28
53 Holy Cross 25 6-17- 2 25.19(50) 0.88
54 Fairfield 24 1-21- 2 8.53(54) 0.46
Average ranking of each league(#teams):
This week
WCHA(10): 21.80
HEA(09): 17.33
CCHA(12): 21.33
ECAC(12): 27.75
MAAC(08): 50.50
CHA(03): 39.33
Average rating of each league(#teams):
This week
WCHA(10): 59.18
HEA(09): 67.04
CCHA(12): 58.70
ECAC(12): 50.70
MAAC(08): 1.71
CHA(03): 21.21
cheers, wayne
Wayne T. Smith mailto:[log in to unmask]
Systems Group - UNET University of Maine System
Co-owner of the College Hockey mailing lists
HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey; send information to
[log in to unmask], The College Hockey Information List.
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