Back again with the ECAC Playoff Permutation Spook-tacular! Even for the
always-messy ECAC, this season represents quite an achievement, as only
eight points separate second place from eleventh, and one team -- Clarkson
-- could potentially finish tied with any of (this has to be some sort of
record) NINE others. Quinnipiac wrapped up first place a while ago, but
there is plenty up for grabs as the league finishes its regular season.
Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish. As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2013/ecac.cgi
For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Dartmouth wins the
head-to-head tiebreaker against Union with a 1-0-1 record; however, in a
four-way tie involving those two, Rensselaer, and Yale, Dartmouth would
actually be seeded lower than Union. (This kind of thing seems to be
even
more possible than usual this year)
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins.
3. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here's how things shape up:
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: The Engineers take second place with three points on the
weekend.
BEST CASE: Second.
WORST CASE: Falls to sixth if they lose twice, Yale and Union get at
least three points, and Dartmouth gets at least two.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; loses to Union; could win or lose against St.
Lawrence, Dartmouth, and Clarkson.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEKEND: At Union, at Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches second with two wins.
BEST CASE: Second.
WORST CASE: Would finish seventh with two losses if Yale and Dartmouth
get at least one point each, and Clarkson beats Rensselaer and does not
lose to Union.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; loses to Yale and Clarkson; could win or lose
against Rensselaer, Dartmouth, and Union.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: Colgate, Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep wraps up fourth place.
BEST CASE: Climbs to second with two wins if Rensselaer gets no more
than
one point and St. Lawrence does not sweep.
WORST CASE: Drops to eighth with two losses if neither Dartmouth nor
Union loses twice, Clarkson gets at least three points, and Brown sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Lawrence and Princeton; loses to Rensselaer;
could
win or lose against Dartmouth, Union, Clarkson, Brown, and Cornell.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: Princeton, Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins will guarantee fifth place.
BEST CASE: Would take second with two wins if Yale and St. Lawrence do
not sweep and Rensselaer gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Finishes ninth if they get swept, Union and Clarkson get at
least two points each, and either Cornell wins twice or Brown gets at
least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Cornell and Princeton; could win or lose against
Rensselaer, St. Lawrence, Yale, Union, Clarkson, and Brown
Union:
THIS WEEKEND: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fifth with a pair of wins.
BEST CASE: Rises to second if they sweep, Dartmouth and Yale each get no
more than two points, St. Lawrence and Rensselaer tie, and Rensselaer
loses to Clarkson.
WORST CASE: Would finish tenth if they lose twice, Princeton gets at
least three points, and Brown and Cornell tie and each wins their other
game.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; loses to Cornell; could win or lose
against St. Lawrence, Yale, Dartmouth, Clarkson, Brown, and Princeton.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: At Rensselaer, at Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Would wrap up sixth place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Takes third with two wins if Dartmouth and Yale get no more
than one point each, and St. Lawrence loses to Rensselaer and does not
beat Union.
WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh if they lose twice, Colgate sweeps,
Princeton gets at least three points, Cornell beats Yale, and Brown does
not lose to Cornell.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Lawrence; could win or lose against Rensselaer,
Yale, Dartmouth, Union, Brown, Cornell, Princeton, and Colgate.
Brown:
THIS WEEKEND: Cornell, Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Two wins will clinch eighth.
BEST CASE: Climbs to fourth with a sweep if Dartmouth and Yale both lose
twice, Union gets no more than one point, and Clarkson does not sweep.
WORST CASE: Drops to eleventh with two losses if Princeton gets at least
two points and Colgate does not lose to Yale.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to St. Lawrence and Colgate; could win or lose
against
Yale, Dartmouth, Union, Clarkson, Cornell, and Princeton.
Princeton:
THIS WEEKEND: At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Gets ninth place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Finishes fifth if they win twice, Dartmouth also loses to
Quinnipiac, Brown gets no more than two points, and Clarkson and Union
tie
and each loses their other game.
WORST CASE: Would wind up in eleventh if they get swept, Cornell does
not
lose twice, and Colgate gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth and Cornell; loses to Yale; could win or
lose against Union, Clarkson, Brown, and Colgate.
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: At Brown, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches ninth by beating Brown and not losing to Yale.
BEST CASE: Would take fourth with a sweep if Dartmouth loses twice, Yale
also loses to Colgate, Princeton does not beat Harvard, Union does not
beat Clarkson, and Clarkson and Union both lose their other game.
WORST CASE: Slides to eleventh if they lose twice and Colgate gets at
least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union; loses to Dartmouth and Princeton; could win or
lose against Yale, Clarkson, Brown, and Colgate.
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: At Yale, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points will lock up eleventh place.
BEST CASE: Rises to seventh with a sweep if Clarkson loses twice,
Princeton gets no more than one point, Brown and Cornell tie, and Cornell
does not beat Yale.
WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if they lose twice and Harvard sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; could win or lose against Clarkson, Princeton,
Cornell, and Harvard.
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: Quinnipiac, Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than twelfth without help.
BEST CASE: Gets eleventh with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than one
point.
WORST CASE: Twelfth.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Colgate.
--
Bill Fenwick DJF 5/27/94
Cornell '86 and '95 JCF 12/2/97
LET'S GO RED!!
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