Ohg, well - using the Game Outcome Metric with a least-squares fit to  
game outcome - that REALLY should do it.

On Nov 7, 2010, at 11:54 PM, Patrick E. Fleming wrote:

> I have posted computer ratings for both Men and Women Division I  
> college hockey.  I will include ratings for division III programs  
> once more data is available.  The ratings are calculated using a  
> least-squares fit to game outcomes as a measure of how much better  
> the winning team is that the losing team.  The version 4.0 GOM  
> (Game Outcome Metric) is calculated as follows:
>
> up to 4 points for margin of victory
> up to 3 points for holding the losing team below 3 goals
> a 3 point bonus for winning a game in regulation.
>
> A tie will result in a GOM of 0, indicating that the teams are even  
> for the game.  An overtime win results in a GOM of 1.  The results  
> for Division I Men's Hockey (for games through November 6, 2010)  
> are given below:
>
> TFS 4.0 - College Hockey
> NCAA Division I (Men)
>
>      School               Record               Rating        Schedule
>      ------               ------               ------        --------
>   1) Yale                 ( 4 -  0 -  0)       30.718        23.968
>   2) Nebraska-Omaha       ( 7 -  1 -  0)       30.449        25.699
>   3) Wisconsin            ( 6 -  2 -  2)       29.471        25.271
>   4) Boston University    ( 6 -  0 -  2)       29.289        25.164
>   5) Michigan             ( 5 -  2 -  3)       29.180        27.180
>   6) Miami                ( 5 -  2 -  3)       28.948        26.148
>   7) Notre Dame           ( 6 -  2 -  1)       28.616        25.727
>   8) New Hampshire        ( 4 -  1 -  2)       28.578        26.007
>   9) Maine                ( 4 -  1 -  3)       28.489        26.239
>  10) Boston College       ( 5 -  3 -  0)       28.221        25.846
>
>  11) Alaska               ( 6 -  3 -  1)       28.068        25.868
>  12) Western Michigan     ( 6 -  2 -  2)       27.932        25.732
>  13) Ferris State         ( 5 -  3 -  2)       27.777        25.977
>  14) Michigan State       ( 3 -  2 -  3)       27.606        26.606
>  15) Union                ( 6 -  1 -  3)       27.537        23.737
>  16) Harvard              ( 1 -  1 -  0)       27.165        26.665
>  17) Minnesota Duluth     ( 7 -  1 -  2)       27.113        24.213
>  18) Minnesota            ( 5 -  4 -  1)       26.805        26.505
>  19) North Dakota         ( 5 -  4 -  1)       26.748        26.048
>  20) Denver               ( 4 -  4 -  2)       26.412        26.512
>
>  21) Merrimack            ( 2 -  2 -  2)       26.091        25.758
>  22) Connecticut          ( 2 -  1 -  3)       25.967        25.801
>  23) Michigan Tech        ( 3 -  2 -  2)       25.804        25.661
>  24) Rensselaer           ( 4 -  2 -  3)       25.792        24.347
>  25) Ohio State           ( 4 -  5 -  0)       25.416        24.749
>  26) St. Cloud State      ( 4 -  5 -  1)       25.273        25.373
>  27) Canisius             ( 4 -  4 -  2)       25.227        23.627
>  28) Colorado College     ( 4 -  5 -  1)       24.725        25.525
>  29) Northern Michigan    ( 3 -  5 -  1)       24.698        26.254
>  30) Quinnipiac           ( 4 -  3 -  1)       24.688        24.938
>
>  31) Robert Morris        ( 6 -  2 -  0)       24.541        20.666
>  32) Providence           ( 3 -  4 -  2)       24.421        24.754
>  33) Lake Superior        ( 3 -  5 -  2)       24.417        26.317
>  34) Dartmouth            ( 1 -  2 -  1)       24.415        26.665
>  35) St. Lawrence         ( 2 -  4 -  3)       24.401        25.290
>  36) Niagara              ( 3 -  3 -  2)       24.320        24.570
>  37) Clarkson             ( 4 -  3 -  2)       24.278        24.055
>  38) Brown                ( 1 -  2 -  1)       24.157        25.157
>  39) Bowling Green        ( 4 -  6 -  0)       23.916        26.416
>  40) Minnesota State      ( 2 -  4 -  4)       23.435        25.535
>
>  41) Vermont              ( 0 -  3 -  3)       23.396        25.729
>  42) Bemidji State        ( 1 -  4 -  1)       23.045        26.378
>  43) Colgate              ( 2 -  3 -  1)       22.864        23.031
>  44) Mercyhurst           ( 1 -  4 -  1)       22.809        25.475
>  45) Princeton            ( 1 -  3 -  0)       22.612        25.862
>  46) Massachusetts        ( 0 -  5 -  2)       22.609        26.181
>  47) UMass Lowell         ( 2 -  6 -  2)       22.549        26.049
>  48) RIT                  ( 2 -  4 -  1)       22.475        25.475
>  49) Alaska Anchorage     ( 1 -  5 -  2)       22.296        24.796
>  50) Army                 ( 2 -  4 -  0)       22.233        23.900
>
>  51) Cornell              ( 1 -  3 -  0)       22.183        24.933
>  52) Northeastern         ( 1 -  5 -  2)       22.017        24.642
>  53) Alab-Huntsville      ( 1 -  8 -  1)       21.937        26.837
>  54) Bentley              ( 2 -  3 -  1)       21.748        23.248
>  55) Holy Cross           ( 4 -  4 -  0)       21.504        24.004
>  56) Sacred Heart         ( 1 -  5 -  1)       18.438        23.723
>  57) Air Force            ( 1 -  5 -  0)       18.260        21.593
>  58) American Int'l       ( 1 -  5 -  0)       15.924        20.924
>
> Average GOM =   5.162
> Std. Dev.   =   4.806
>
> These ratings are based on  229  games played.
>  45  of the games were upset victories.
>
>
>
> If you are interested, the ratings are available at http:// 
> minkeynet.net/~pfleming/fcfcr/ .  Enjoy!
>
> -- 
> -- Patrick E. Fleming
> -- Minkey, Inc.
> -- [log in to unmask]
>