I'm always intrigued to see what effects one or two games in the middle
of the week have on TCHCR.  Since I distribute it at the games I go to,
Keith sent me an updated version including the two Tuesday games, in which
Yale lost at UML 4-2 and FSU lost at MSU, 8-2.  Not unexpectedly, the
four largest changes in rating among all 45 teams happened to the teams
that played.  The versions of TCHCR compared were the 1/19 and 1/21 versions.
 
                DIFF   GP (DivI)
Yale            -3.28  14
UMass-Lowell    +2.42  19
Ferris State    -0.96  21
Michigan State  +0.91  23
 
Most of the other 41 teams had ratings shift by a few tenths of a point
up or down.  Most ECAC teams have played fewer DivI games than Western
teams at this point, and it seemed to be ECAC teams that had their ratings
shift more than the other conferences.  And notice that the fewer games
played, the larger effect the result had on the ratings shift.
 
Here are the actual ratings shifts for HE and ECAC teams, listed by
conference so you can get a feel for what happened.  I thought this
would be relevant because of the questions on why the East is ranked
where they are.  I found the results very interesting and logical.
 
HOCKEY EAST
BC +0.28
BU +0.35
UM +0.37
ML +2.42
MC +0.26
NH +0.21
NU +0.22
PC +0.54
 
Notice that all eight HE teams' ratings rose after one of their own, UML,
beat Yale.  Also notice that other than Lowell, the highest ratings increase
was had by PC - which has played Lowell 4 times, more times than any
other HE team.
 
ECAC
Brown   -0.31
Clark   -0.22
Colgate -0.34
Cornell -0.45
Dart    -0.43
Harvard -0.44
Prince  -0.63
RPI     -0.31
SLU     -0.13
Union   -0.48
Vermont -0.32
Yale    -3.28
 
All ECAC ratings went down.  But two teams had their ratings decrease
less than any of the other 10 ECAC teams - Clarkson and SLU, which have
played many HE teams.  SLU's rating shift was the smallest, and they've
played 5 games with HE teams (all of whose ratings went up).  Clarkson's
was second smallest - and they've played four HE teams.
 
The six largest shifts were had by Union and five Ivies.  Not uncoin-
cidentally, these teams play only 25 or 26 games this year.  Brown was
the only Ivy not to fall into this listing - but the Bears just played
three games in Alaska which do not count towards their limit, and they'll
play 29 games this year.  Brown's 17 DivI games are more than any other
Ivy.
 
Princeton had the second largest drop in the ECAC after Yale, and the Tigers
have already played Yale twice this year unlike most ECAC teams.
 
 
- mike