A few weeks ago we were discussing the difference between
comparing the total Pairwise Rankings and looking only at the pairwise
comparisons among those teams.  If the season ended today, it would
make a big difference.  Here are the current pairwise comparison
results (yes, it's a third independent calculation of the same numbers
posted today):
 
    Team         PWR  RPI                  Comparisons Won
 1 Mich State     23 .621   NDBUMiNHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
 2 North Dakota   22 .621 __  BUMiNHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
 3 Boston Univ    21 .616 ____  MiNHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
 4 Michigan       20 .589 ______  NHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
 5 New Hampshire  19 .581 ________  BCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
 6 Boston Coll    17 .570 __________  Ya__OSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
 7 Yale           17 .560 ____________  CkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
 8 Clarkson       17 .559 __________BC__  OSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
 9 Ohio State     15 .548 ________________  WiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
10 Wisconsin      13 .538 __________________  CC__NESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
11 CO College     12 .544 ____________________  MmNE__MDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
12 Miami          12 .541 __________________Wi__  NE__MDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
13 Northeastern   11 .530 ________________________  SCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
14 St Cloud       10 .556 ____________________CCMm__  MDCgNt__NM__PnCrPvDa
15 Minn-Duluth     9 .519 ____________________________  CgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
16 Colgate         8 .508 ______________________________  NtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
17 Notre Dame      7 .513 ________________________________  LSNMRPPnCrPvDa
18 Lake Superior   6 .507 __________________________SC______  __RPPnCrPvDa
19 Northern Mich   5 .510 __________________________________LS  RP__CrPvDa
20 RPI             5 .504 __________________________SC__________  PnCrPvDa
21 Princeton       4 .501 ____________________________________NM__  CrPvDa
22 Cornell         2 .494 __________________________________________  PvDa
23 Providence      1 .500 ____________________________________________  Da
24 Dartmouth       0 .468 ______________________________________________
 
        Looking only at the PWR, which is the total number of
comparisons won by a team, we might conclude that the projected
tournament field would be the top twelve teams, down through Miami.
That's the way the selection committee did things in 1996, but it's
*not* the way it worked last year, and it's not the way it works now.
Instead, as explained by Joe Marsh to Adam Wodon
<http://www.uscollegehockey.com/tournament/032097.html>, the committee
uses the pairwise comparisons to identify the teams which are
obviously in the tournament, and those which are "on the bubble".
They then use the comparisons *among*the*bubble*teams* to determine
which of those make it.  Using the current numbers, the first nine
teams in the PWR win comparisons with all the others, so they're
obviously in.  A reasonable definition of "the bubble" would seem to
me to be teams 10-14.  The comparisons among those teams are as
follows:
 
   Team         lPWR RPI Comps Won
 1 Wisconsin      3 .538   SCCC__NE
 2 St Cloud       2 .556 __  CCMm__
 3 CO College     2 .544 ____  MmNE
 
 4 Miami          2 .541 Wi____  NE
 5 Northeastern   1 .530 __SC____
 
Quoting from my analysis at <http://www.cc.utah.edu/~jtw16960/pframe.html>,
 
   Wisconsin gets one bid, since they have the highest "local PWR", and
   Northeastern is out, with the lowest. Of the remaining three teams,
   SCSU and CC both win their comparisons with Miami, and thus grab the
   last two spots. Thus St. Cloud, despite having a total PWR two lower
   than Miami's, grabs the last tournament spot from the RedHawks. This
   conclusion is inescapable unless we extend the "bubble" all the way
   down to #18 Lake State or #20 RPI.
 
In other words, the current tournament selection procedure, to the
best of my knowledge, would place St. Cloud State, 14th in the PWR in
the tournament, and leave out Miami, tied for the 11th highest PWR in
the nation.  The reason is that SCSU's pairwise comparison losses with
Lake Superior and Rensselaer do not play a role here, as those teams
are not "on the bubble".
                                         John Whelan, Cornell '91
                                     Official Scorer/PA Announcer
                                        U of Utah Ice Hockey Club
                                               <[log in to unmask]>
                      <http://www.cc.utah.edu/~jtw16960/joe.html>
 
HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey;  send information to
[log in to unmask], The College Hockey Information List.