Now that my beloved Spartans have finished their regular season (Thank God)
with a somewhat-better-than-I-was-expecting-but-still-not-good-enough-to-
beat-UM-with-only-6-shots-on-goal-in-the-first-two-periods performance (and
only playing 4 defensemen), that gives me some time to look at the remaining
playoff possibilites in the CCHA.
 
The eight playoff teams are set, with UAF's loss to WMU last night.  OSU has
clinched the eighth spot and Bowling Green has clinched the fifth spot.  Miami
and Ferris State are battling it out for sixth; if Miami wins tonight, they
get sixth.  Ferris State can get sixth if they win and Miami ties, or they
at least tie and Miami loses.  An FSU loss gives Miami sixth.
 
The top four are a little tougher.  Any of the four can finish anywhere from
first through fourth, but WMU needs a weird combination to finish first.  MSU's
season, as I stated, is done.  So, there are three games left involving the
top four with 3 outcomes each (for those of you statisticians out there, that'
s 27 possibilities).  So, here they are, with the resulting standings:
 
Currently:  MSU 45, LSSU 44, UM 44, WMU 43
Two-way tiebreakers:  LSSU>MSU, LSSU>UM, LSSU>WMU, UM>MSU, WMU>UM, MSU>WMU
Three-way: LSSU>UM>MSU, LSSU>WMU>UM, LSSU>MSU>WMU, WMU>UM>MSU
Four-way: LSSU>WMU>UM>MSU
 
Possible outcomes of tonight's action (with standings):
LSSU    WMU     UM      Standings
____    ___     __      _________
  W      W       W      LSSU, UM, MSU, WMU
  W      W       T      LSSU, WMU, UM, MSU
  W      W       L      LSSU, MSU, WMU, UM
  W      T       W      LSSU, UM, MSU, WMU
  W      T       T      LSSU, UM, MSU, WMU
  W      T       L      LSSU, MSU, WMU, UM
  W      L       W      LSSU, UM, MSU, WMU
  W      L       T      LSSU, UM, MSU, WMU
  W      L       L      LSSU, MSU, UM, WMU
  T      W       W      UM, LSSU, MSU, WMU\
  T      W       T      LSSU, WMU, UM, MSU
  T      W       L      LSSU, MSU, WMU, UM
  T      T       W      UM, LSSU, MSU, WMU
  T      T       T      LSSU, UM, MSU, WMU
  T      T       L      LSSU, MSU, WMU, UM
  T      L       W      UM, LSSU, MSU, WMU
  T      L       T      LSSU, UM, MSU, WMU
  T      L       L      LSSU, MSU, UM, WMU
  L      W       W      UM, MSU, WMU, LSSU
  L      W       T      WMU, UM, MSU, LSSU
  L      W       L      MSU, WMU, LSSU, UM
  L      T       W      UM, MSU, LSSU, WMU
  L      T       T      UM, MSU, LSSU, WMU
  L      T       L      MSU, LSSU, WMU, UM
  L      L       W      UM, MSU, LSSU, WMU
  L      L       T      UM, MSU, LSSU, WMU
  L      L       L      MSU, LSSU, UM, WMU
 
Of 27 possibilites, number of chances for each team to finish:
                1st     2nd     3rd     4th
                ___     ___     ___     ___
LSSU             15       5       5       2
UM                8       8       5       6
MSU               3      11      11       2
WMU               1       3       6      17
 
It's very interesting that UM has a better chance than MSU of finishing either
1st or 4th, while the Spartans' odds are better to finish 2nd or 3rd.
 
WMU's situation is very interesting.  One would suspect offhand that they would
want to win and have both of the other teams playing tonight lose.  But, they
actually need Michigan to tie Bowling Green and have Lake Superior lose while
they win to get the CCHA #1 seed.
 
Finally, Bowling Green does have something to play for tonight, in determining
their first-round opponent.  A win over Michigan would give them the season
series over UM, LSSU, and MSU, and help them to avoid playing WMU in the first
round, a team that swept BG this year (that is, unless WMU loses to UAF, making
WMU the #4 seed anyway).
 
G. M. Finniss
Michigan State University 22-7-1, 26-10-1
Who backs into first place (literally, after a dismal end to the season) if
Michigan and Lake Superior lose.  Hockey polygamy, here I come (at least for
one night)!
 
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