To see why Hockey East is rated low this year, let's look back 1
season. I calculated last year's results (just before the NCAA tourney)
using the current algorithm. This will be slightly different than the
version of TCHCR that I distributed at that time because I have changed
the rules by modifying the game outcome measure and adding the basis
team.
 
                          Division I          Schedule Schedule
Rank Team                   Record    Rating  Strength   Rank
 
1990-91:
  3  Maine                 30  8  2    77.36    56.11     19
  6  Boston University     25 10  2    76.07    58.19     11
  7  Boston College        27 10  0    74.65    56.96     17
  9  Providence            20 10  2    68.94    56.48     18
 12  New Hampshire         22 11  2    63.93    52.41     24
 28  Merrimack             13 18  1    46.02    53.28     23
 30  Lowell                10 23  1    42.90    58.10     12
 33  Northeastern           8 25  2    40.17    58.56      8
 
1991-92:
  4  Maine                 23  3  1    75.38    45.72     27
  9  Boston University     20  5  3    66.55    47.43     24
 11  Providence            20  9  1    61.84    47.52     23
 23  New Hampshire         17 11  1    56.02    46.89     26
 29  UMass-Lowell           8 15  4    45.48    56.04     19
 31  Boston College        10 16  3    43.66    52.22     20
 33  Northeastern          10 17  0    38.77    49.66     21
 36  Merrimack             11 17  0    35.42    43.92     30
 
Notice that HEA had 5 teams in the top 15 least season. Boston College
is the only team with a dramatically different record. Also note that
eastern teams can indeed have decent schedules: all HEA schedules are
below 25th and 3 are in the top 15. Four HEA teams made the NCAA
tournament last season, by the way.
 
Below is a table comparing the league's performance versus the other
leagues/independents over the past 2 seasons. For each, games played
and winning percentage are listed.
 
          CCHA     WCHA     ECAC     Indep     Total
90-91    16 .563  11 .818  42 .667  27 .815   96 .708
91-92     3 .500   8 .500  33 .606  33 .788   77 .669
 
Notice that, across the board, HEA has done worse this year. The
decrease from .818 to .500 against the WCHA stands out as being
particularly noteworthy.
 
Hockey East also went through a scheduling change, as can be seen by
the shift in games played versus the different groups. The ratio
against the WCHA remained virtually the same: 11% of the league's
non-conference games were against the WCHA in 90-91, compared to 10%
this year. Likewise against the ECAC: 44% last year and 43% this
season. The big shift was away from the CCHA and toward the
independents, as has been previously noted. HEA's NC percentage dropped
from 17% to 4% for the CCHA and sky-rocketed from 28% to 43% for the
independents.
 
While Hockey East was playing those independents, the western teams
were winning against non-HEA teams. The WCHA has only improved its NLG
record from .620 to .625, but the CCHA has jumped from .615 to .750.
Against common opponents (ECAC and Independents), the West is .889 and
HEA is .697.
 
Therefore, I see two reasons for Hockey East's decline in TCHCR: 1) a
decreased performance in non-conference games, and 2) a move away from
playing western teams, coupled with an improved performance for those
western squads.