Hi all,
 
I just finished my finals this quarter. So here is my guess on how the
selections/seedings will go. No guarantees that I am right but it may
help people understand the complexities associated with what's going on.
 
Locks:
CCHA: 1.) LSSU 2.) Mich 3.) WMU*
ECAC: 1.) Verm 2.) Clksn
Hockey East: 1.) BU 2.) UML
WCHA: 1.) CC 2.) UMN
 
* I conjecture that WMU is already in, but I have not run the numbers.
(It's more fun this way!) The argument goes as follows. For them not to be
they need 3 teams to pass them. This can happen if BGSU, Harvard and
Providence all win their conference championships. But then MSU must lose
one game. Looking at the comparison between MSU and WMU we now have
 
    Michigan State      Western Michigan
RPI     .5859   1          .5840   0
L20  13- 6- 1   1       11- 6- 3   0
TUC   6-10- 0   0       11- 8- 1   1
H2H             2                  1
COP  22- 8- 1   0       20- 6- 3   1
============================================
PTS             4                  3
 
My guess is that 1 loss by MSU allows WMU to pass them in RPI. (Certainly
two losses will). If my guess is correct then WMU passes MSU in PWR and
MSU fails to make the tournament. There may be a gap here that I am missing.
So don't cash the check yet.
 
Bubble Teams:
1.) Michigan State -- The above scenario is the only way MSU is not in the
tournament.
 
2.) Bowling Green -- They must prevent two teams from passing them. They
are in the tournament if any of the following happens.
 
        - They win their conference championship.
        - If both Harvard and Providence lose once this weekend
        - If at least one of Harvard and Providence loses once
          this weekend and Cornell does not win the head to head
          comparison with BGSU. Currently this looks like
 
    Bowling Green       Cornell
RPI     .5641   1          .5493   0
L20  14- 6- 0   0       14- 5- 1   1
TUC   8- 9- 0   1        5- 6- 2   0
H2H             0                  0
COP   5- 2- 0   1        2- 3- 0   0
============================================
PTS             3                  1
 
 
3.) Cornell -- They must prevent one team from passing them. They are in
the tournament if any of the following happens
 
        - They win their conference championship.
        - If at least one of Harvard and Providence loses once
          this weekend and Cornell wins the head to head
          comparison with BGSU (see above comparison)
        - If both Harvard and Providence lose once this weekend and
          they do not lose there comparison to Denver. Currently this
          looks like
 
    Cornell             Denver
RPI     .5493   1          .5421   0
L20  14- 5- 1   1        7-11- 2   0
TUC   5- 6- 2   0        9- 8- 0   1
H2H             0                  0
COP   2- 2- 0   0        5- 3- 0   1
============================================
PTS             2                  2 (Win goes to Cornell based on RPI)
 
4.) Denver -- They need to pass one team. They are in the tournament
if the following happens.
 
        - If both Harvard and Providence lose once this weekend and
          they win their comparison vs Cornell. (see above comparison).
 
5.) Providence and Harvard need to win their conference tournaments.
 
Now comes the complicated part. Seedings! :-) I will list the outcome
I think is most likely to occur.
 
At Munn              At Albany
 
1.) CC               1.) BU
2.) LSSU             2.) Vermont
3.) Mich             3.) Minn
4.) UMass Lowell     4.) Clarkson
5.) Mich State       5.) West Mich
6.) Cornell          6.) Bowling Green
 
Here I let in 5 CCHA teams. As far as I can see they deserve it.
Two eastern and western teams get byes. There are no first round
matchups between teams in the same conference. The three Michigan teams
that stay west maximize $$. If Cornell makes it they must go west, since
there the lowest eastern team. Mass Lowell goes west because (I believe)
Clarkson is a better draw at Albany.
 
Lastly, each bracket matches the current ordering in PWR with the
exception of the Vermont and Minn. But as Keith Instone informed us
earlier this week, both Eastern byes will be given to eastern teams.
 
Later,
 
Tim Brule
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