Matt Wickey    ([log in to unmask]) wrote:
 
>I agree with Mike and Nathan that Western Michigan hasn't received
>the respect in the polls that it probably deserves.  I also thought the
>same of Bowling Green early on.  However, I'm doing something this year
>that is helping me understand the fundamentals of polls.  This year I'm
>taking part in the HOCKEY-L poll.  And I would recommend it to anyone who
>either complains about polls or otherwise has an interest.
 
>Previously, if my team had a good weekend I would scan the polls the next
>week and either celebrate their advances or be angered by the lack
>of demonstrated respect.  What I'm finding by taking part myself is that
>there are more issues involved than I had thought.  For example, if there
>is a team that has done well on any weekend, I must consider:
 
<snip>  {you can read that for yourself}
 
 
The problem I have with the approach discussed by Matt (which, I think is
the
approach used by most pollsters in almost every poll) is that it requires
thought
 only once a year, when you conceive your "gong-in position" or "pre-season
favorites" or whatever.  Then it relies on a method of making little tweaks
and
deviations as you go (e.g., Team A was swept, so they go down, but it was on
 the road vs a tough opponent, so they don't go too far down, etc).
 
That's fine and dandy if you've learned everything about each team before
they
play a game (= helluva scouting job!!).  As you can guess, I don't think
that is
possible.  Plus, teams change as players get hurt or heal, learn, or get
suspended, or coaches tweak lines.  A better approach, IMO, is to ask
yourself
the "300 games question":  if two teams played 100 games at each home, and
100 at a neutral site, who'd have the most points (POINTS, not goals)?  If
you
haven't seen a particular team, go by what you read on hockey-l or other
sources.  I know it's tough for us; my main argument is against the "profes-
sional" pollsters who supposedly have an informed opinion (at least they
supposedly have access to game tapes that we don't {with the possible
except-
ion of Mike Machnik ;^) }).
 
I agree wholehartedly that participating in the polling procedure is good
(flame
away, because I haven't; then again, I haven't complained about the rankings
either).
 
Steve G
 
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