Thanks for the encouraging resposes to the SOS (Strength of Schedule) Ratings.
Time permitting, I'll publish these around the end of week
for games through Wednesday of that week.
It was suggested that I post this to Hockey-L as well, so I have. I
probably won't each week, but we thought the Hockey-L folks
might be interested in an attempt to do a "TCHCR" or "RPICH"
type ranking for division III. Unfortunately, because we don't have
complete lists of schedules, scores, etc, we can't do many of the things
required to produce a rating system of that caliber (for example, we
don't have the data available to calculate "opponent's opponents"
records). We also don't have enough information to rate the ECAC
East or Western Conferences. Maybe next year :)
The SOS Rating is obtained by adding a team's winning percentage
to the aggregate winning percentage of opponents they have faced
(not including head-to-head contests with that opponent).
After last week's initial post, I got a suggestion to also factor in
multiple games against an opponent, so if, for example, a team
plays Plattsburgh twice, their overall strength of schedule should
have Plattsburgh's record factored in twice. This seems reasonable,
so I went back and re-calculated last week's ratings based on the
new formula. It had a minimal effect because so few teams have
played each other twice at this point in the season, but it will
probably give a more accurate representation of schedule strength
as the season progresses.
SOS ECAC West/SUNYAC Ratings
Games through 1/13/93
Ranking Team Rating Win SOS Change
Now Prev % %
1 1 Plattsburgh 1.437 .846 .591 +.027
2 2 Cansisius 1.324 .818 .506 -.007
3 4 Elmira 1.270 .727 .543 +.032
4 3 Mercyhurst 1.256 .667 .589 -.004
5 6 Cortland 1.152 .769 .382 +.059
6 5 Hobart 1.143 .556 .587 -.055
7 8 RIT 1.077 .625 .452 +.022
8 7 Oswego 0.988 .591 .397 +.004
9 9 Potsdam 0.954 .458 .496 -0.027
10 10 Fredonia 0.820 .300 .520 +.004
11 11 Brockport 0.841 .300 .541 +.003
12 12 Geneseo 0.714 .227 .487 +.006
13 13 St. Bonas 0.633 .167 .466 -.003
14 14 Scranton 0.461 .000 .461 +.026
Not a lot of movement due to the small number of games played.
Elmira moved past Mercyhurst (even though neither saw action)
because Elmira's opponents (Plattsburgh, Cortland, UMass-Boston)
had wins. Cortland's win over Hobart moved them past the
Statesman. RIT's loss to Plattsburgh didn't hurt their rating, and their
win over Potsdam helped, so they moved up a notch as well.
Based entirely on winning percentages, the standings would be
(interesting because these would have been the official
standings had the ECAC West stayed intact):
1 Plattsburgh .846
2 Cansisius .818
3 Cortland .769
4 Elmira .727
5 Mercyhurst .667
6 RIT .625
7 Hobart .556
8 Oswego .591
9 Potsdam .458
10 Brockport .300
11 Fredonia .300
12 Geneseo .227
13 St. Bonas .167
14 Scranton .000
And who's had the toughest (and easiest ) schedule to date?
Here they are, hardest to easiest:
1 Plattsburgh .591 (Opponent's winning %)
2 Mercyhurst .589
3 Hobart .587
4 Elmira .542
5 Brockport .541
6 Fredonia .520
7 Cansisius .506
8 Potsdam .496
9 Geneseo .487
10 St. Bonas .466
11 Scranton .461
12 RIT .452
13 Oswego .397
14 Cortland .382
Once again, thanks for the feedback, and keep it coming.
Chris Lerch
Xerox
RIT '84 & '91
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