After spending way too much time playing with John Whelan's bracket
script, here is the situation, as far as I can tell. Corrections and
clarifications are of course welcomed.
 
In order of the latest PWR:
 
1. North Dakota (WCHA) - vs. SCSU-UMD winner Friday
Assured a first-round West bye. (This is not a bye by rule, it's an "only
Michigan State can pass them" bye.)
2. Michigan State (CCHA) - vs. NMU Friday
Assured a first-round West bye. (I don't think Michigan or Ohio State can
pass them.)
 
3. Boston University (HE) - idle
Already has a berth. Will almost certainly get a bye if BC loses.
4. Michigan - (CCHA) - vs. OSU Friday
Will make the tournament. Will be in the west, because they're the host,
and will probably be placed with North Dakota to avoid a second-round
UM-MSU game.
5. Boston College - (HE) - vs. Merrimack Friday
Gets a bye if they win HE and Yale wins the ECAC. Will be in the
tournament regardless of this weekend. (I have been unable, so far, to
construct a scenario that knocks BC out.)
 
6. Clarkson (ECAC) - vs. Harvard Friday
7. Ohio State (CCHA) - vs. Michigan Friday
8. New Hampshire (HE) - idle
Clarkson can get a bye if they win the ECACs. All three of these teams
are ~90% certain of getting in. What could derail them is upsets in the
other conferences. A win on Friday or Saturday helps these teams, but may
not be necessary. If UNH gets in, I'll bet money on them being sent west.
If Ohio State gets in, I'll bet almost as much money on them being sent east.
 
9. Yale (ECAC) - vs. Cornell-Princeton winner Friday
Automatically in. Gets a bye only if they win the ECACs.
 
10. Wisconsin (WCHA) - vs. CC Friday
11. Colorado College (WCHA) - vs. UW Friday
Obviously, the winner of their game is in pretty good shape, but not a
given. (Although they are probably in if UND wins their semifinal.) If
the Friday loser also loses Saturday, they may drop out of the picture,
depening on how the other conferences shake out.
 
12. St. Cloud State (WCHA) - vs. UMD Thursday
13. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA) - vs. SCSU Thursday
Basically tied for 12th. (St. Cloud is 12th, but a UMD win will flip
their comparison with SCSU, and give them 12th place.) The loser Thursday
is done. The winner Thursday can get in with one win, if they get help
from the other conferences (no upsets.) Winning either the semifinal or
consolation game will help push them above either Wisconsin or CC in PWR.
 
14. Northern Michigan (CCHA) - vs. MSU Friday
15. Maine (HE) - vs. Mass-Lowell Friday
Almost certainly needs to win the tournament. A Friday loss is definitely
fatal, a loss Saturday probably kills them as well. I did construct a
scenario that put Maine in as an at-large team, but I could do nothing
with Northern. It may be possible for Northern to get in as an at-large
team, but it is highly unlikely.
 
16. Northeastern (HE) - idle
Can still theoretically get in, if BC wins HE and the WCHA 4-5 winner
loses the semifinal and the consolation game, and the stars align properly.
 
17. Miami (CCHA) - idle
Toast.
18. Mass-Lowell (HE) - vs. Maine Friday
Must win their tournament to get a berth.
19. Rensselaer (ECAC) - idle
Toast.
20. Princeton (ECAC) - vs Cornell Thursday
 
x. Cornell (ECAC) - vs Princeton Thursday
x. Harvard (ECAC) - vs Clarkson Friday
x. Merrimack (HE) - vs BC Friday
Each must win their tournament to get a berth.
 
Conference berths:
WCHA: From 2 to 4, depending on the number of "upset" champions in the
other conferences. (An upset here is defined as NMU in the CCHA,
Princeton, Harvard or Cornell in the ECAC and anybody but BC in HEA.)
CCHA: Three, four if NMU wins.
ECAC: Two if Yale or Clarkson wins, probably three if Harvard, Cornell or
Princeton do.
HEA: The absolute worst is two. Probably three, with four if BC doesn't
win the tournament.
 
Rules potentially coming into play:
2-team minimum: It is possible that the WCHA could be forced to take
advantage of this. (If UND wins, and every other conference has an "upset".)
The ECAC may as well, if Clarkson finishes fourth and Yale wins.
Automatic RS champion berth: I think is possible, if Yale were to crap out,
that they could end up 13th. They are the closest to being protected by
this, since UND, MSU and BU are 1-2-3 in the PWR.
Automatic bye: Yale also stands to profit from this. UND and Michigan State
are still eligible for this, but they appear to have earned byes regardless.
 
Drop the puck!
John
 
--
John Edwards - Carleton (ON) '96, Manitoba '00 - [log in to unmask]
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