> #1 Vermont vs. #8 RPI
>
> No rocket science here (no irony intended); if the Engineers can figure out
> a way to stop the Perrin-St. Louis-Ruid line, they have a shot.
 
Anyone who wants to beat Vermont has to do *two* things:  stop their top line,
and figure out how to blow goalie Tim Thomas out of the building.  Thomas is the
main reason why the Catamounts can get away with not having a lot of depth on
offense behind Perrin, St. Louis, and Ruid.  In league play, the Cats' top line
accounted for 52 goals -- an impressive total, but the rest of the team came
up with only 34, an imbalance that might be a cause for concern were it not
for Thomas' performance between the pipes.  He started all 22 ECAC games for
Vermont, and his 2.05 GAA and 0.934 saves percentage are far and away the
league's best.  His overall save percentage of 0.925 is the best in Division I,
and his 2.32 GAA is second behind CC's Judd Lambert (okay, third if you include
Canisius' Kevin Kreutzer)  (All stats from www.usatoday.com)  Sometimes you can
attribute numbers like that to a strong defense, which protects the goalie by
not forcing him to make a lot of saves, but Vermont's defense seems to have
been about average in that aspect -- Thomas faced about 31 shots a game.
 
As amazing as those numbers may be, what I find even more impressive about
Thomas' performance this year is his consistency.  In 22 league games, Thomas
gave up more than three goals only once, in a 5-1 loss to Clarkson (in which
he still made 43 or so saves).  And with the postseason tending to focus more
attention/pressure on a team's goalie, Thomas may be more of a factor in
determining whether Vermont wins the ECAC tournament than Perrin, St. Louis,
or Ruid.
 
> #3 St. Lawrence vs. #6 Harvard
 
Might there be a bit of a goaltending controversy brewing at St. Lawrence?
When Cornell scored the game-tying and game-winning goals about a minute apart
late in the third period at Appleton last Saturday, SLU coach Joe Marsh pulled
goalie Jon Bracco from the game and sent in Clint Owen.  Bracco, who did not
appear to be injured or anything, disappeared -- he was not on the bench after
being pulled.  I suspect that Marsh will be able to take care of this situation
(if indeed there is a problem) before it becomes a major distraction, but even
so, this is not the kind of thing you want to have going on right before the
playoffs.  Not that Harvard, in the midst of a nine-game losing streak, will
have much of a chance to take advantage.
 
> #4 Cornell vs. # 5 Colgate
>
> The most intriguing match-up for many reasons. The schools' proximity, for
> one. More importantly, two very different styles - Cornell plays a more
> free-wheeling, wide-open style and relies heavily on its special teams
> (league-best net +21).
 
An astonishing turnaround from last season's league-worst -14, by the way.
 
>                        Colgate has learned to play team defense, control
> the neutral zone and win at 5-on-5. Cornell is much more physical, though,
> and may wind up on the penalty kill far more often than the power play.
 
I dunno... Cornell-Colgate has developed into quite a, uh, spirited rivalry.
I suspect the power plays will wind up about even... and numerous.
 
> A hot goaltender is absolutely essential in the playoffs, and Cornell
> doesn't have one.
 
Perhaps not, but likely starter Jason Elliott is getting there.  He produced
a shutout against RPI, a 45-save effort (probably his best game of the season)
in a 2-1 loss at Clarkson, and played quite well at St. Lawrence also (two
of the goals he allowed weren't really his fault).  Elliott's had a problem
with rebounds for most of his career, but he's gotten far better at covering
them or directing them somewhere other than smack in front of the goal.  Col-
gate goalie Dan Brenzavich will be the interesting new element in this series;
when these two split their home-and-home back in January, Brenzavich was on the
shelf with a calf injury.
 
>                   Before you Big Red fans go nuts over my prediction
 
Is your prognosticating record like mine?  If so, thank you.  :-) :-)
 
I agree with Adam -- the Lynah crowd will be a BIG factor in this one.  Lynah
seems to be on the path to restoring its reputation as Death Valley for the
opposition (Cornell once went almost *six years* without losing a home game),
as the Big Red posted a 9-1-2 record at home this season.  The one loss was to
St. Lawrence, which needed overtime and a dubious penalty call (just how does
someone 5-8 "interfere" with 6-6 Joel Prpic, anyway???) to pull out the win.
 
Against Colgate this year, Cornell has played four strong periods, one accept-
able period (which they entered with a 5-0 lead), and one horrendous one, and
the last is basically why the two teams split.  If the Big Red is up for this
quarterfinal series (and knowing head coach Mike Schafer, I don't see how they
could be otherwise), Colgate is going to have an awful tough time coming up
with the three points.
 
(I picked Colgate first in the league also, and I'm still surprised they
haven't done better than they did this season; however, Lynah is not the place
you want to go to turn things around)
 
Bill Fenwick
 
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