In anticipation of the most celebrated tournament in college hockey, we
present a special CHODR preview of this year's Beanpot.  The field
features four of the top 15 teams in the ratings (and 2 of the top 3)
as Boston University ranks #2, Harvard is #3, Northeastern is #12, and
Boston College is #14.  First, here are the score predictions and win
probabilities for each individual game.  (Note: results of Wednesday
night's games are included in the predictions).
 
First Round - Monday, February 7:
 
NORTHEASTERN        4.79 (54.4%)  vs  Boston College      4.46 (45.6%)
BOSTON UNIVERSITY   4.62 (57.0%)  vs  Harvard             4.12 (43.0%)
 
Championship/Consolation - Monday, February 14:
 
BOSTON UNIVERSITY   5.03 (69.4%)  vs  Boston College      3.61 (30.6%)
BOSTON UNIVERSITY   5.13 (64.7%)  vs  Northeastern        4.03 (35.3%)
HARVARD             4.88 (62.7%)  vs  Boston College      3.96 (37.3%)
HARVARD             4.97 (58.0%)  vs  Northeastern        4.38 (42.0%)
 
 
The following table summarizes the possible outcomes of the tournament.
The rating given is the latest overall CHODR rating which represents
the margin by which each team would be predicted to beat a hypothetical
average team.  Under each column labeled "1st", "2nd", "3rd" and "4th"
is the team's chances of finishing in that position.  For example, the
18.9% listed in the "2nd" column for BU means that BU has an 18.9%
chance of winning in the first round and then losing the championship
game to finish 2nd.
 
 
Rank  Team                Rating       1st     2nd     3rd     4th
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  #2  Boston University     1.97      38.1%   18.9%   28.9%   14.1%
  #3  Harvard               1.47      25.9%   17.1%   34.5%   22.5%
 #12  Northeastern          0.88      20.8%   33.7%   17.8%   27.7%
 #14  Boston College        0.55      15.3%   30.3%   18.8%   35.7%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
It's interesting to note that although Harvard is the second strongest
team in the field, and has the second-best chance of winning the
championship, the Crimson are most likely to finish 3rd, while the
Northeastern Huskies have the best chance of finishing 2nd.  Obviously
this is due to the fact that Harvard must face #2 BU in the first round
while Northeastern squares off against #14 BC.
 
We will update these numbers and post a similar message after this
weekend's games.
 
 
Timothy J. Danehy                    [log in to unmask]
Robin Lock                           [log in to unmask]