And once again, it's the ECAC Playoff Permutations!  This year, the league
has more or less separated itself into three tiers.  We know who the top
two teams are going to be, as well as the bottom two.  The rest is the
usual unholy mess.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at

http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/2020/ecac.cgiframe.shtml

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
       competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
       This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
       standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
       some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
       standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
       lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
       more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Colgate wins the
       head-to-head tiebreaker against Dartmouth with a 1-0-1 record; how-
       ever, in a three-way tie involving these two and Brown, Colgate would
       actually be seeded lower than Dartmouth.  If a listed tiebreaker
       result depends on more than just those two teams being tied, it is
       marked with an asterisk:

            Colgate could win or lose* against Dartmouth

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
      tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
Remaining ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how the final weekend looks:

Cornell:
       THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up the top spot if they do not lose to Clarkson.
       BEST CASE:  First.
       WORST CASE:  Finishes second if they lose twice.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Clarkson.

Clarkson:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches first with a sweep.
       BEST CASE:  First.
       WORST CASE:  Will end up second if they do not beat Cornell.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Cornell.

Quinnipiac:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Brown, Yale.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Would take third with three points on the weekend.
       BEST CASE:  Third.
       WORST CASE:  Drops to fifth with two losses if Rensselaer wins twice
       and Harvard beats Union.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard; could win or lose against Rensselaer.

Harvard:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Rensselaer, Union.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Takes fourth if they do not lose to Rensselaer.
       BEST CASE:  Rises to third with a sweep if Quinnipiac gets no more
       than two points.
       WORST CASE:  Would finish fifth with a pair of losses.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Quinnipiac; could win or lose against
       Rensselaer.

Rensselaer:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins will guarantee fourth place.
       BEST CASE:  Finishes third with a sweep if Quinnipiac gets no more
       than one point.
       WORST CASE:  Ends up in seventh with two losses if Dartmouth also
       beats Union and Yale gets at least three points.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate; loses to Yale; could win or lose
       against Quinnipiac, Harvard, and Dartmouth.

Dartmouth:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Union, Rensselaer.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches sixth with two wins.
       BEST CASE:  Would climb to fifth with a sweep if Harvard beats
       Rensselaer.
       WORST CASE:  Falls to eighth with two losses if Yale and Colgate
       get at least one point and Brown does not sweep.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown; could win or lose against Rensselaer and
       Yale; could win* or lose against Colgate.

Yale:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Gets seventh with a sweep.
       BEST CASE:  Would finish fifth by winning twice if Rensselaer does
       not get more than one point and Dartmouth does not sweep.
       WORST CASE:  Slides to ninth with two losses if Colgate gets at
       least two points, Brown wins twice, and Rensselaer does not finish in
       the top four.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer; could win or lose against Dartmouth,
       Colgate, and Brown.

Colgate:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up eighth place with two points.
       BEST CASE:  Finishes sixth with two wins if Dartmouth does not sweep
       and Yale gets no more than two points.
       WORST CASE:  Drops to ninth if they get swept and Brown gets at
       least three points.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Rensselaer and Brown; could win or lose
       against Yale; could win or lose* against Dartmouth.

Brown:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
       ON THEIR OWN:  One point guarantees the Bears ninth place.
       BEST CASE:  Rises to seventh with a sweep if Yale loses twice,
       Colgate gets no more than one point, and Rensselaer does not finish
       in the top four.
       WORST CASE:  Would finish tenth with two losses if Union wins twice.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate; loses to Dartmouth and Union; could win
       or lose against Yale.

Union:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched tenth place and can do no better
       without help.
       BEST CASE:  Takes ninth with a sweep if Brown loses twice.
       WORST CASE:  Tenth.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown and Princeton.

Princeton:
       THIS WEEKEND:  Yale, Brown.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Gets eleventh place with one point.
       BEST CASE:  Eleventh.
       WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth if they get swept and St. Lawrence
       wins twice.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; loses to Union.

St. Lawrence:
       THIS WEEKEND:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
       ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
       BEST CASE:  Would finish eleventh with a sweep if Princeton loses
       twice.
       WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
       TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Princeton.


Bill Fenwick
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