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Subject:
From:
John T Whelan <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
John T Whelan <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 26 Mar 2004 07:24:15 -0600
Content-Type:
TEXT/PLAIN
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There is a straightforward extension which adds the effects of
home-ice advantage to the Bradley-Terry method used in KRACH.  The
resulting rating system is one I've taken to calling KASA (KRACH
Adjusted for Site Advantage).  It's not being published anywhere yet,
but I've got some code to calculate it.

Here are the odds for each team to advance to a given round of the
NCAAs according to their KASA ratings.  Since no one is playing on
home ice, the odds don't look much different from those from KRACH.

                             ____O d d s   o f   w i n n i n g____
Seed ___Team___      KASA    1 game  2 games   3 games    4 games

1M Minnesota         518.26  73.06%  42.19%    18.79%     10.10%
2M Minnesota-Duluth  483.98  71.44%  39.00%    16.76%      8.737%
3M Michigan State    193.47  28.56%  9.542%    2.322%      0.7223%
4M Notre Dame        191.07  26.94%  9.269%    2.236%      0.6897%

1E Maine             582.45  82.05%  54.61%    32.38%     15.92%
2E Ohio State        260.79  44.87%  16.80%     6.812%     2.116%
3E Wisconsin         320.37  55.13%  23.13%    10.48%      3.708%
4E Harvard           127.44  17.95%  5.461%     1.408%     0.2607%

1N Boston College    564.01  86.33%  60.76%    34.97%     16.93%
2N Michigan          259.31  55.03%  20.56%     8.061%     2.494%
3N New Hampshire     211.87  44.97%  14.93%     5.181%     1.398%
4N Niagara           89.344  13.67%  3.752%     0.7071%    0.09826%

1W North Dakota      904.94  93.32%  69.85%    47.32%     31.52%
2W Denver            364.60  63.16%  20.51%     9.536%     4.324%
3W Miami             212.69  36.84%  8.43%      2.871%     0.9500%
4W Holy Cross        64.817   6.684% 1.212%     0.1702%    0.02309%

Credits: USCHO, me, Ken Butler, Davidson & Beaver, Bradley & Terry,
Zermelo.
                                          John Whelan, Cornell '91
                                                 [log in to unmask]
                                     http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/

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