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| Date: | Tue, 25 Mar 2003 22:39:45 -0600 |
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There is a straightforward extension which adds the effects of
home-ice advantage to the Bradley-Terry method used in KRACH. The
resulting rating system is one I've taken to calling KASA (KRACH
Adjusted for Site Advantage). It's not being published anywhere yet,
but I've got some code to calculate it.
Here are the odds for each team to advance to a given round of the
NCAAs according to their KASA ratings, including the effects of home
ice advantage for Minnesota and Michigan, which make them effectively
somewhat stronger teams in the regionals than in the Frozen Four[TM]:
KASA Strength ____O d d s o f w i n n i n g____
Seed ___Team___ Rgnls Frozn4 1 game 2 games 3 games 4 games
1W Minnesota 1003.1 724.24 97.7% 66.2% 31.09% 15.47%
2W Ferris State 464.16 464.16 48.65% 16.1% 5.871% 2.297%
3W North Dakota 489.99 489.99 51.35% 17.59% 6.632% 2.678%
4W Mercyhurst 23.563 23.563 2.295% 0.108% 0.003243% 0.0001073%
1M Colorado College 1061.9 1061.9 94.39% 56.7% 35.55% 20.97%
2M Maine 670.61 670.61 47.58% 19.83% 10.23% 4.900%
3M Michigan 738.75 533.40 52.42% 23.01% 10.57% 4.482%
4M Wayne State 63.135 63.135 5.612% 0.4614% 0.04301% 0.003586%
1E Cornell 1018.9 1018.9 69.07% 44.49% 27.11% 15.52%
2E Boston College 703.96 703.96 68.49% 32.18% 16.77% 8.089%
3E Ohio State 323.89 323.89 31.51% 9.296% 3.145% 0.954%
4E MSU-Mankato 456.22 456.22 30.93% 14.03% 5.841% 2.212%
1N New Hampshire 860.83 860.83 69.7% 42.53% 22.97% 12.21%
2N Boston University 674.16 674.16 64.76% 32.44% 15.61% 7.364%
3N Harvard 366.89 366.89 35.24% 12.63% 4.293% 1.416%
4N St. Cloud State 374.31 374.31 30.3% 12.40% 4.269% 1.427%
Credits: USCHO, me, Ken Butler, Davidson & Beaver, Bradley & Terry,
Zermelo.
John Whelan, Cornell '91
[log in to unmask]
http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/
Enjoy the latest Hockey Geek tools at slack.net/hockey
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