I looked over a LOT of this stuff today, and I think I can answer some of
the questions that have been raised already.
First, let me say that after looking at everything and then hearing the
seedings, I was not at all surprised at the top 5 seeds in each region.
My questions were on the 6W (NMU) and 6E (Wis) seeds. I actually had 10 of
the 12 seeds right (down to position), although I had Wisconsin as 6W and
could not decide among five teams for the last spot. Those 5 were: NMU,
MSU, RPI, UML, and UNH. So I went on to do a little more analysis, and
here's what I found.
1) Why not UML? Sid reports that Nonni Daly thought UML was in after
beating UNH in the consolation. However, I thought they would absolutely
still lose out to UNH, which had a better SOS, record vs common opponents,
and record vs teams under consideration. In my post after last night's HE
championship, I noted that I didn't think HE would get more than 2 teams,
and that's what happened.
BTW, UNH had an argument vs RPI and MSU, two teams I thought they would win
out against. But neither of those teams got in, either. UNH does appear
to lose out to NMU and Wis, and that's what happened. I suspect the team
that lost out was indeed UNH, and that they were closest of all the teams
that didn't get in to getting a bid.
2) Why NMU 6W over Wisconsin? I think Tony (Ogre) has an excellent point
about Wis being sent to Detroit because they were actually rated higher
than NMU. Of 8 categories, the Badgers win out in 4, including head-head
(3-1-0), one is virtually even, and three go to NMU. I suspect that Tony
is absolutely right that the seeds were flipflopped to make NMU travel and
keep Wis closer to home.
However, Tony also commented that Wis was rated higher than Minnesota, and I
didn't find that to be true. Minnesota wins out in 4 categories - head-head
(2-1-2), record vs teams under consideration, win % (.625 to .613), and
common opp (.661 to .629). The other four are dead heats. To that extent,
Minnesota could have been allowed to stay home ahead of Wisconsin. THAT
is my question on Wis as 6E. I would have put Wis 5W and NMU 6W, to make
them travel, and put Minnesota 6E to keep them closer to home. However,
going strictly by rating, Wisconsin actually has a tougher draw in Miami
than either Minnesota (Clarkson) or NMU (Harvard) do.
I have to think the attendance factor was what got Wisconsin the 6E seed.
Of the three teams that could have been sent to Detroit (Minn, NMU, Wis),
Wis will bring more people.
3) Why Wis over RPI? This was an easy one. RPI had the better win %,
.621 to .613, but that was it. Wis wins out in 4 categories - rating and
three SOS categories - and three are even.
4) Did MSU get the shaft? Nope. Vs Wis, they lose in every one of 7
categories (no head-head) including rating, win%, CommOpp, and SOS. Vs
NMU, they lose in 4 including head-head (0-1-0), teams under consideration
(TUC), and SOS; they win 2 including win%, and two are even.
On Brown, I have to admit that I didn't realize until last night that they
had a VERY good chance to get in, and the numbers just backed that up.
They earned their bid.
Overall, my grading of the seedings: B+, possible A-. My only question is
NMU vs Wis, but I can see why they did it the way they did. Of the top 8
teams, four were East and four were West, and all four were allowed to stay
within their regions. Note that the 1-12 teams in the rating (re: RPICH)
all made the tourney. On top of all this, there is still a chance that the
teams ranked 1-4 in the country (by numbers, NOT by polls) can all make the
final four, and that is nice. (Maine, BU, LSSU, Michigan)
Good luck to all the teams in the tourney! I'll look forward to seeing the
games in Worcester this weekend.
---
Mike Machnik [log in to unmask] Color Voice of the Merrimack Warriors
(Any opinions expressed above are strictly those of the poster.) *HMN*
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