Subject: | |
From: | |
Reply To: | John T. Whelan |
Date: | Sun, 25 Mar 2001 23:07:45 -0600 |
Content-Type: | TEXT/PLAIN |
Parts/Attachments: |
|
|
Erik Biever:
> The RPI formula, like it or not, treats all games equally. That's
> not likely to change anytime soon. To alleviate the alleged bias,
> the Ice Hockey Committee could add something like 'ratio of
> home/away non-conference games' as a selection criterion. That
> seems unlikely.
RPI does lots of unfortunate things that aren't likely to change
soon. :-(
Andrew Rapoff:
> Doesn't one of the other ranking systems (HEAL???) consider home
> versus away games? What does it show with respect to rankings?
The Bradley-Terry method used to produce the KRACH ratings can also be
modified to include the effects of home. I tossed together some code,
which hasn't undergone even the most obvious of checks, but the
numbers that came out looked plausible, so here they are. The Home
Ice Bradley-Terry rating (basically KRACH with home ice taken into
account) is in the first column, the regular KRACH rating in the
second. Since the question was about strength of schedule, that's
listed in the next two columns; HISOS takes home ice into account,
KSOS does not. Each of these is just the relevant rating divided by
the ratio of points for to points against (equivalent to winning
percentage), listed in the third column.
__Team______ HIBT __KRACH__ __HISOS__ __KSOS___ __PF/PA__
1 Mich State 1150 1135(# 1) 202.9(#14) 200.2(#16) 5.667(# 1)
2 St Cloud 947.8 1113(# 2) 255.7(# 7) 300.5(# 7) 3.706(# 2)
3 Boston Coll 723.9 732.3(# 4) 210.2(#13) 212.6(#13) 3.444(# 3)
4 North Dakota 689.1 789.9(# 3) 251.6(# 8) 288.4(# 8) 2.739(# 4)
5 CO College 589.5 720.2(# 5) 278.1(# 4) 339.7(# 4) 2.120(# 6)
6 Minnesota 561.1 676.0(# 6) 260.5(# 6) 313.8(# 6) 2.154(# 5)
7 Wisconsin 424.7 515.2(# 7) 295.5(# 2) 358.4(# 1) 1.438(#16)
8 Michigan 416.7 423.9(# 8) 219.7(#10) 223.5(#11) 1.897(# 8)
9 Denver U 323.5 391.8(# 9) 261.8(# 5) 317.2(# 5) 1.235(#24)
10 Providence 309.3 327.1(#10) 183.0(#18) 193.6(#17) 1.690(#11)
11 Maine 288.7 313.2(#11) 186.0(#16) 201.9(#15) 1.552(#14)
12 New Hampshire 267.9 294.8(#12) 167.4(#25) 184.3(#19) 1.600(#12)
13 MSU-Mankato 249.1 293.6(#13) 236.3(# 9) 278.5(# 9) 1.054(#30)
14 Northern Mich 233.9 244.5(#14) 179.5(#20) 187.6(#18) 1.303(#21)
15 Western Mich 221.9 218.9(#16) 154.3(#29) 152.3(#30) 1.438(#17)
16 NE-Omaha 214.1 222.4(#15) 150.4(#30) 156.1(#29) 1.424(#18)
17 Miami 191.1 197.2(#17) 154.7(#28) 159.6(#27) 1.235(#23)
18 Mass-Lowell 187.9 188.4(#18) 160.4(#26) 160.8(#26) 1.171(#25)
19 Clarkson 176.3 174.1(#19) 97.93(#37) 96.70(#39) 1.800(#10)
20 St Lawrence 172.1 165.7(#20) 109.5(#33) 105.5(#34) 1.571(#13)
21 Ohio State 164.7 157.1(#22) 184.1(#17) 175.6(#24) .8947(#31)
22 Boston Univ 153.8 161.0(#21) 213.3(#11) 223.3(#12) .7209(#38)
23 Northeastern 143.1 146.0(#23) 200.3(#15) 204.3(#14) .7143(#39)
24 Bowling Green 137.2 127.4(#26) 159.5(#27) 148.0(#31) .8605(#33)
25 Harvard 124.1 124.7(#27) 116.8(#32) 117.3(#32) 1.062(#29)
26 Merrimack 122.8 130.5(#25) 168.9(#24) 179.4(#22) .7273(#37)
27 Michigan Tech 115.3 135.4(#24) 299.7(# 1) 352.1(# 2) .3846(#53)
28 Ferris State 114.7 116.0(#30) 170.1(#23) 172.0(#25) .6744(#43)
29 Dartmouth 112.4 116.5(#29) 99.91(#36) 103.5(#35) 1.125(#27)
30 Cornell 111.2 114.9(#31) 87.18(#42) 90.05(#41) 1.276(#22)
31 AK-Anchorage 102.9 122.9(#28) 287.0(# 3) 342.8(# 3) .3585(#54)
32 RPI 99.60 97.09(#32) 88.53(#41) 86.30(#42) 1.125(#28)
33 Yale 91.31 90.11(#33) 103.9(#35) 102.5(#36) .8788(#32)
34 Lake Superior 86.79 87.28(#35) 181.5(#19) 182.5(#21) .4783(#50)
35 Notre Dame 86.10 86.18(#36) 175.7(#21) 175.8(#23) .4902(#49)
36 AK-Fairbanks 84.04 89.78(#34) 148.7(#31) 158.8(#28) .5652(#47)
37 AL-Huntsville 80.94 78.73(#37) 53.96(#46) 52.49(#45) 1.500(#15)
38 Vermont 75.90 77.08(#38) 96.14(#38) 97.64(#38) .7895(#34)
39 Mass-Amherst 73.03 76.22(#39) 175.3(#22) 182.9(#20) .4167(#51)
40 Princeton 64.31 66.10(#41) 95.17(#39) 97.83(#37) .6757(#42)
41 Minn-Duluth 63.86 75.87(#40) 212.9(#12) 252.9(#10) .3000(#55)
42 Union 56.44 57.04(#42) 80.62(#43) 81.48(#43) .7000(#40)
43 Colgate 50.65 49.16(#43) 92.86(#40) 90.12(#40) .5455(#48)
44 Mercyhurst 48.78 36.30(#45) 23.33(#49) 17.36(#49) 2.091(# 7)
45 Quinnipiac 45.49 33.43(#46) 24.64(#48) 18.11(#48) 1.846(# 9)
46 Niagara 41.99 38.94(#44) 55.43(#45) 51.40(#46) .7576(#36)
47 Iona 29.45 21.60(#48) 21.70(#50) 15.91(#50) 1.357(#20)
48 Brown 28.05 29.33(#47) 107.5(#34) 112.4(#33) .2609(#56)
49 Canisius 27.96 20.63(#49) 20.19(#51) 14.90(#51) 1.385(#19)
50 Air Force 21.58 20.06(#50) 27.75(#47) 25.79(#47) .7778(#35)
51 Sacred Heart 18.88 13.51(#51) 16.59(#54) 11.87(#55) 1.138(#26)
52 Connecticut 13.81 10.02(#52) 19.74(#52) 14.31(#52) .7000(#41)
53 Army 10.42 7.676(#54) 17.36(#53) 12.79(#53) .6000(#45)
54 Fairfield 9.440 6.933(#55) 14.16(#57) 10.40(#58) .6667(#44)
55 American Intl 8.395 6.371(#56) 14.79(#56) 11.23(#56) .5676(#46)
56 Bemidji State 7.743 7.986(#53) 72.78(#44) 75.07(#44) .1064(#58)
57 Holy Cross 6.469 4.908(#57) 16.53(#55) 12.54(#54) .3913(#52)
58 Bentley 2.793 2.167(#58) 13.41(#58) 10.40(#57) .2083(#57)
I made the arbitrary distinction that all games listed with a 'vs'
rather than an 'at' in the USCHO composite schedule are neutral site
games. The home ice advantage, assumed to be the same for all teams,
is 1.465 (meaning a team with a HIBT of 121.0 will have an effective
rating of 100 on the road and 146.5 at home). Here are the overall,
home, away, and neutral site records for each team:
__Team______ _Total_ __Home_ _Away__ _Neut _HI_Adv_
1 Mich State 32- 4-4 15- 1-1 12- 2-2 5-1-1 1.465
2 St Cloud 31- 8-1 16- 4-1 13- 4-0 2-0-0 1.465
3 Boston Coll 30- 8-2 12- 3-1 12- 4-1 6-1-0 1.465
4 North Dakota 27- 7-9 12- 2-5 13- 3-3 2-2-1 1.465
5 CO College 26-12-1 16- 5-1 8- 6-0 2-1-0 1.465
6 Minnesota 27-12-2 18- 4-1 8- 6-1 1-2-0 1.465
7 Wisconsin 21-14-4 11- 8-1 8- 5-3 2-1-0 1.465
8 Michigan 25-12-5 13- 3-3 9- 5-2 3-4-0 1.465
9 Denver U 19-15-4 12- 9-1 7- 6-3 0-0-0 1.465
10 Providence 22-12-5 15- 4-1 5- 7-4 2-1-0 1.465
11 Maine 19-11-7 12- 4-3 5- 6-4 2-1-0 1.465
12 New Hampshire 21-12-6 12- 5-3 5- 7-2 4-0-1 1.465
13 MSU-Mankato 19-18-1 12- 8-0 7- 9-1 0-1-0 1.465
14 Northern Mich 18-13-7 10- 6-4 8- 7-3 0-0-0 1.465
15 Western Mich 20-13-6 10- 5-3 8- 8-3 2-0-0 1.465
16 NE-Omaha 22-15-3 15- 5-1 5- 9-2 2-1-0 1.465
17 Miami 20-16-2 11- 5-2 9- 9-0 0-2-0 1.465
18 Mass-Lowell 19-16-3 8- 7-2 11- 7-1 0-2-0 1.465
19 Clarkson 21-11-3 10- 5-1 9- 4-2 2-2-0 1.465
20 St Lawrence 20-12-4 9- 2-3 6-10-1 5-0-0 1.465
21 Ohio State 16-18-2 6- 9-0 10- 7-2 0-2-0 1.465
22 Boston Univ 14-20-3 8- 7-1 4-11-2 2-2-0 1.465
23 Northeastern 13-19-4 7- 6-2 5-11-2 1-2-0 1.465
24 Bowling Green 16-19-5 9- 5-2 7-13-3 0-1-0 1.465
25 Harvard 16-15-2 9- 4-1 6- 8-1 1-3-0 1.465
26 Merrimack 14-20-4 10- 7-2 4-11-1 0-2-1 1.465
27 Michigan Tech 8-24-4 2-10-4 5-13-0 1-1-0 1.465
28 Ferris State 12-19-5 7- 5-4 4-13-1 1-1-0 1.465
29 Dartmouth 16-14-4 12- 5-0 3- 7-4 1-2-0 1.465
30 Cornell 16-12-5 8- 3-5 5- 6-0 3-3-0 1.465
31 AK-Anchorage 7-24-5 2-13-3 5-11-2 0-0-0 1.465
32 RPI 17-15-2 10- 5-2 7-10-0 0-0-0 1.465
33 Yale 14-16-1 9- 5-0 5-11-1 0-0-0 1.465
34 Lake Superior 11-23-0 8- 7-0 2-16-0 1-0-0 1.465
35 Notre Dame 9-22-7 4-11-2 5- 8-4 0-3-1 1.465
36 AK-Fairbanks 9-19-8 7- 7-4 2-12-4 0-0-0 1.465
37 AL-Huntsville 15-10-0 10- 3-0 5- 7-0 0-0-0 1.465
38 Vermont 14-18-2 8- 7-1 5-10-1 1-1-0 1.465
39 Mass-Amherst 8-22-4 4- 9-3 4-13-1 0-0-0 1.465
40 Princeton 10-16-5 4- 7-4 6- 7-1 0-2-0 1.465
41 Minn-Duluth 7-28-4 5-13-2 2-14-2 0-1-0 1.465
42 Union 12-18-4 10- 5-2 2-13-1 0-0-1 1.465
43 Colgate 10-20-4 6- 7-0 4- 9-4 0-4-0 1.465
44 Mercyhurst 22-10-2 11- 3-1 8- 7-1 3-0-0 1.465
45 Quinnipiac 22-11-4 13- 3-0 8- 7-4 1-1-0 1.465
46 Niagara 10-14-5 5- 4-1 2- 9-3 3-1-1 1.465
47 Iona 17-12-4 10- 1-3 7-10-1 0-1-0 1.465
48 Brown 4-21-4 3-10-1 1-11-3 0-0-0 1.465
49 Canisius 16-11-4 10- 1-2 5- 7-2 1-3-0 1.465
50 Air Force 9-12-3 6- 4-1 2- 6-2 1-2-0 1.465
51 Sacred Heart 14-12-5 10- 2-2 4-10-3 0-0-0 1.465
52 Connecticut 12-18-4 7- 5-1 5-13-3 0-0-0 1.465
53 Army 12-20-0 8- 6-0 4-14-0 0-0-0 1.465
54 Fairfield 11-17-2 7- 4-2 3-12-0 1-1-0 1.465
55 American Intl 10-18-1 7- 7-0 3-11-1 0-0-0 1.465
56 Bemidji State 1-22-3 1- 9-2 0-12-0 0-1-1 1.465
57 Holy Cross 8-22-2 7- 5-1 1-16-1 0-1-0 1.465
58 Bentley 4-23-2 3-10-1 1-12-1 0-1-0 1.465
John Whelan, Cornell '91
[log in to unmask]
http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/
Enjoy the latest Hockey Geek tools at slack.net/hockey
|
|
|