Michigan State accomplished what none of the other contenders in the =
CCHA could over the weekend and that was win both games.  With =
convincing wins over Ferris State and Notre Dame, they moved out to a 5 =
point lead with only four weeks left in the season.  The problem they =
face now is that they have 7 games remaining against the top teams in =
the conference and a road game against Notre Dame they can't afford to =
take lightly.  Have they opened a big enough lead to hold on or will =
they limp home 2-4-1 as projected and let all three of the other =
contenders pull by?  They've looked very good but are only 3-4 against =
the other top teams with those remaining seven games left.  Michigan can =
still sneak by everyone with a game in hand and a perfect finish, =
although they also have 5 games remaining against the top teams.  None =
of the top four contenders can be ruled out, although even a strong =
finish by Lake Superior may leave them short as they now trail Michigan =
State by 7 points.
 
Two key games will be played this coming weekend with a home and away =
series between Michigan State and Western Michigan.  Each team has a =
slight edge on their home ice and they may split.  A sweep for either =
team will move them close to the CCHA title.  Michigan State would move =
to a projected 48 points with a sweep, Western Michigan to 49 with a =
much easier finishing schedule.
 
For the other top teams this weekend, Lake Superior plays two games at =
home against a resurgent Miami team that virtually locked up a place in =
the playoffs and possibly the #6 spot with two wins against =
Alaska-Fairbanks over the weekend.  Michigan hits the road for single =
games at Notre Dame and Illinois-Chicago.  Lake Superior and Michigan =
should win both games, but with Miami coming on strong at the finish and =
Michigan's trouble against Ohio State another surprise could happen.  =
Bowling Green also plays road games at Illinois-Chicago and Notre Dame =
that they should win, but they will probably stay in the #5 spot no =
matter how they finish.
 
The bottom of the league is another story.  Ferris State picked up a =
point with a tie on the road at Western Michigan and appears to have the =
edge right now for the #7 position despite trailing Alaska-Fairbanks by =
a single point.  They play two games at home this weekend against Ohio =
State in which they rate as slight favorites.  Wins would put them in a =
strong #7 spot in the conference.  Alaska-Fairbanks which might have put =
a lock on a playoff spot with wins over the weekend against Miami can =
now only sit back and watch for a week with two non-conference games =
against Waterloo.  Notre Dame also had a chance to move up this week but =
lost all three games and now has a pair of home games against Michigan =
and Bowling Green.  Illinois-Chicago faces the same two teams at home =
but is another two points back in a tie for last place.  They did win =
their critical game over the weekend against Notre Dame, but they need =
to pick up more points to stay alive.  Right now Ohio State is the =
surprise team at the bottom.  After another tie with Michigan on the =
road and with a reasonable chance at 5 or more points in their last 8 =
games, they could sneak into the #8 playoff spot.  They play two games =
on the road this weekend at Ferris State with a chance to come up with =
at least one win there and another two the following weekend at home =
with Alaska-Fairbanks in two games that may determine who gets that last =
spot.
 
Now for the numbers...
 
                             CURRENT     REMAINING     PROJECTED LAST
                         W  L  T PTS   W  L  T PTS   W  L  T PTS WEEK =
CHG
 1 Michigan             16  4  2  34   8  0  0  16  24  4  2  50  51  -1
 2 Western Michigan     16  4  3  35   6  0  1  13  22  4  4  48  49  -1
 3 Lake Superior        16  5  1  33   6  2  0  12  22  7  1  45  47  -2
 4 Michigan State       20  3  0  40   2  4  1   5  22  7  1  45  45   0
 5 Bowling Green        12  9  1  25   6  2  0  12  18 11  1  37  33   4
 6 Miami                 8 11  3  19   2  5  1   5  10 16  4  24  22   2
 7 Ferris State          5 15  3  13   3  2  2   8   8 17  5  21  20   1
 8 Alaska-Fairbanks      7 18  0  14   0  3  2   2   7 21  2  16  20  -4
 9 Ohio State            3 14  5  11   1  4  3   5   4 18  8  16  13   3
10 Notre Dame            5 14  3  13   1  7  0   2   6 21  3  15  17  -2
11 Illinois-Chicago      5 16  1  11   0  6  2   2   5 22  3  13  13   0
 
   PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
 
   Alaska-Fairbanks at Michigan
   Ferris State at Western Michigan
   Miami at Lake Superior
   Bowling Green at Michigan State
 
   GAME PROJECTIONS
 
DATE AWAY       HOME
2/ 9 OSU    2.5 FSU     3.0
2/ 9 BGSU   4.3 UIC     3.2
2/ 9 MU     2.7 LSSU    5.1
2/ 9 UM     5.1 ND      2.2
2/ 9 MSU    2.8 WMU     4.0
2/10 OSU    2.5 FSU     3.0
2/10 UM     5.6 UIC     2.2
2/10 MU     2.7 LSSU    5.1
2/10 WMU    2.6 MSU     2.9
2/10 BGSU   3.8 ND      3.2
2/13 ND     1.8 WMU     6.1
2/16 UIC    2.5 BGSU    5.4
2/16 MU     3.3 FSU     4.1
2/16 ND     1.9 UM      8.6
2/16 LSSU   3.4 MSU     2.5
2/16 UAF    2.9 OSU     2.8
2/17 UIC    2.5 BGSU    5.4
2/17 LSSU   4.0 FSU     1.9
2/17 MSU    2.7 UM      4.0
2/17 UAF    2.9 OSU     2.8
2/17 MU     2.1 WMU     5.2
2/20 MSU    4.5 ND      2.9
2/23 OSU    2.6 BGSU    4.2
2/23 FSU    4.0 UIC     4.0
2/23 UM     4.0 LSSU    3.2
2/23 ND     4.0 MU      5.9
2/24 ND     3.2 BGSU    6.1
2/24 FSU    4.0 UIC     4.0
2/24 UM     4.0 LSSU    3.2
2/25 MU     3.1 OSU     3.0
2/28 WMU    4.5 UAF     1.9
2/29 BGSU   2.3 MSU     4.0
3/ 1 WMU    4.5 UAF     1.9
3/ 1 UIC    3.3 MU      5.2
3/ 1 MSU    2.8 UM      6.5
3/ 1 LSSU   3.8 OSU      .8
3/ 2 WMU    4.5 UAF     1.9
3/ 2 LSSU   4.9 MU      2.8
3/ 2 BGSU   2.1 UM      6.8
3/ 2 FSU    3.6 ND      4.1
3/ 2 UIC    2.2 OSU     3.1
 
Eric Carlson
[log in to unmask]
 
HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey;  send information to
[log in to unmask], The College Hockey Information List.