On Tue, 28 Nov 1995, Steven R. Glazewski wrote:
 
> The problem with this is how to _QUANTIFY_ "weak" and "strong".  The only
> objective evidence is their record.  I tried to make a logical case for
> score, but that got too cumbersome because all 2-goal losses aren't equal
> (the ever popular ENG).  The same can be said of shots on goal (having seen
> games where one team gets 30 blue-line blasts and loses to a team with 15
> tic-tac-toe or sniper shots from point blank).  I came up with a scheme and
> immediately noticed that it was *horrible* early in the season, but was
> quite good at the end.
>
> The reason?  with a small number of games played, you get a higher
> probability of *wierd distribution* of games played.  For example, Team A
> plays Michigan twice, Minnesota, Maine, and BU in its first five games
> whereas Team B plays Air Force, Amherst, Dartmouth twice and Wisconsin in
> its first five games; Team A is 0-4-1 and Team B is 4-0-1.  Are both teams
> equal (assuming the usual performance out of those 8 opponents)?  No, but
> there is a case where that tie for Team A may be worth more than the wins
> for Team B.  The bottom line is WAIT.  By year's end, I'm sure you'll be
> much more in agreement with HEAL than you are now.  Just let the schedules
> balance out.
>
> Steve G
 
        Steve has a good point, wait till the end of the season. Everyone
makes such a big deal about all the polls and ranking systems. Hey, when
it comes down to...it's who gets it done in the playoffs.
 
        As far as the heal system, Steve is exactly right. For example
even though CC is 9-0-3 and Minnesota is 10-3-1. In the heal system
Minnesota is ranked far higher than CC...You ask why?
 
        Lets take a look at who CC has played...4 games vs Northern Mich,
2 against Wisconsin (Home), North Dakota(Home), Michigan Tech(away), and
Minnesota(Home).
 
        Lets take a look at who Minnesota has played...Michigan, Michigan
State(nuetral), 2 games against Michigan Tech (away), CC (away), Denver
(home), SCSU (H/H), Alaska (Home)
 
        Now from the looks of that Minnesota has played by far better
teams. CC is a great team, but has yet to play anyone other than
Minnesota and Tech that have provided a formidable challange.
 
        Like Steve says it will all even out in the end, Minnesota will
encounter some lower division teams like Northern while CC will encounter
some upper division teams.
 
        MAIN POINT:  It all comes out in the wash.
 
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