Back by popular apathy, it's The ECAC Playoff Permutation Special!  This
year, the ECAC goes into its final regular-season weekend with all ten
playoff teams determined, as well as the regular-season champion, so perhaps
some of the drama is missing.  However, there is still plenty of jockeying
for better spots to do yet.
 
First things first.  The #1 seed for the playoffs will be Harvard, which
locked up the regular-season title Friday night.  Clarkson and Brown will
join the Crimson in having home ice for the quarterfinals.  Princeton and
St. Lawrence are assured of being #9 and #10 in some order, and Dartmouth
and Yale are the two teams that will not make the playoffs.
 
Here's a breakdown of where each team could finish in the ECAC's final
standings, along with what has to happen for them to move up to better
playoff spots.  The playoff picture for each team is broken down into the
following categories:
 
THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (within 4 points) in the
     standings.
 
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
 
1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
6.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
 
Note that in the case of a tie among three or more teams, the tiebreakers
are applied in order until either one team emerges as the leader or one team
is eliminated, and then the whole process starts again.  For example, if
three teams are tied for fourth, the head-to-head record is considered
first.  If one team has a better head-to-head record than the other two,
that team gets fourth place, leaving the other two to fight it out for fifth
(starting again with the head-to-head record).  Confusing?  Well, what do
you expect from The Academic League? :-)
 
Here are the playoff "permutations" for each team, in order of their current
position in the standings:
 
Harvard:
     THIS WEEK:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  As previously mentioned, Harvard has already clinched
     first place.  However, the Crimson have had some annoying late-season
     fades over the past couple of years, and the always-tough North Country
     trip may serve as an important tune-up for the playoffs.  Harvard may
     already be a virtual lock for the NC$$ tournament (probably the only
     ECAC team that can claim that), but a poor performance in the ECAC
     post-season will not be looked on too kindly by the selection com-
     mittee.
 
Brown:
     THIS WEEK:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A win over Clarkson will give the Bears second place.
     BEST CASE:  Second.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes fourth if they lose twice and RPI sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats RPI; could win or lose against Clarkson.
 
Clarkson:
     THIS WEEK:  Harvard, Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second with a win over Brown.
     BEST CASE:  Second.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes fourth if RPI gets at least three more points
     than they do on the weekend.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to RPI; could win or lose against Brown.
 
RPI:
     THIS WEEK:  Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two points will guarantee the Engineers fourth place.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish second with a sweep if Brown loses twice and
     Clarkson gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes sixth if they lose twice, Colgate beats or ties
     Union, and Vermont gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson, Colgate, and Vermont; loses to Brown.
 
Vermont:
     THIS WEEK:  At Princeton, at Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches sixth with one point this weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fourth with two wins if Colgate does not sweep and
     RPI gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to seventh if they lose twice, Colgate gets at least
     one point, and either Union or Cornell sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union and Cornell; loses to RPI; could win or lose
     against Colgate.
 
Colgate:
     THIS WEEK:  At Union, at RPI.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep gives the Red Raiders fifth place.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches fourth with a sweep if RPI does not beat Cornell.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eighth if they lose twice, Union and Cornell tie,
     and Cornell beats RPI.  This would set up a three-way tie for sixth
     among Union, Cornell, and Colgate, and the tiebreakers would place the
     Red Raiders eighth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to RPI; could win or lose against Vermont, Union,
     and Cornell.
 
Union:
     THIS WEEK:  Colgate, Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches seventh by beating Cornell.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish fifth with a sweep if RPI beats Colgate and
     Vermont loses twice.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eighth if they lose to Cornell and the Big Red
     gets at least one point against RPI.  If Cornell loses to RPI (and
     Union beats Colgate), the Dutchmen would still finish eighth if they
     lose to the Big Red by more than five goals.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Princeton; loses to Vermont; could win or lose
     against Colgate and Cornell.
 
Cornell:
     THIS WEEK:  At RPI, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches seventh with at least a tie against RPI and a
     win over Union.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fifth with a sweep if Vermont loses twice and
     Colgate loses to RPI and does not beat Union.
     WORST CASE:  A loss to Union would place the Big Red eighth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Princeton; loses to Vermont; could win or lose
     against Colgate and Union.
 
Princeton:
     THIS WEEK:  Vermont, Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep gives Princeton ninth place.
     BEST CASE:  Ninth.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes tenth if St. Lawrence gets at least two more
     points than they do.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Union and Cornell; could win or lose against St.
     Lawrence.
 
St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEK:  Brown, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  The Saints have clinched tenth and can finish no higher
     without help.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches ninth by getting at least two more points than
     Princeton does on the weekend.
     WORST CASE:  Tenth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Princeton.
 
Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEK:  At Yale, at Princeton
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches eleventh with a win over Yale.
     BEST CASE:  Eleventh.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if they lose to Yale and either the Elis
     do not lose to Vermont or Vermont does not finish in the top four.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Yale.
 
Yale:
     THIS WEEK:  Dartmouth, Vermont
     ON THEIR OWN:  Will finish eleventh with a win over Dartmouth and at
     least a tie against Vermont.
     BEST CASE:  Eleventh.
     WORST CASE:  A loss to Dartmouth places the Elis twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Dartmouth.
 
--
Disclaimer -- Unless otherwise noted, all opinions expressed above are
              strictly those of:
 
Bill Fenwick                        |  Send your HOCKEY-L poll responses to:
Cornell '86 and '94 (.5)            |  [log in to unmask]
LET'S GO RED!!
Reporter:    "What do you think of the team's execution?"
John McKay:  "I'm in favor of it."
-- an exchange that occurred while McKay was coaching the 0-14 Tampa Bay
   Buccaneers in 1976