CCHA Play-off Picture, 2nd through 6th
 
At this stage, all 5 teams can end up anywhere from 2nd to 6th. LSSU's
and WMU's chances of being 6th are not very likely, however. Likewise
for BG and Miami and finishing 2nd.
 
Tuesday's game between BG and Miami will clear some things up. The
Lakers will clinch 5th or better with a BG tie or win. WMU will clinch
5th or better if either team wins, but not if they tie.
 
"Magic numbers" are the points a team needs against another to
guarantee finishing ahead of them in the final standings. Any
combination of a team winning points and the other team losing points
adding up to the magic number will mean that the leading team ends up
ahead of the other. For example, LSSU's magic number against MSU is 3.
The Lakers can get 3/4 points versus Kent, or MSU can only get 1/4
points (lose 3 points), or some other combination of LSSU winning and
MSU losing adding up to 3, and LSSU will finish ahead of MSU.
 
 
  Team             Games   Points   Games left
2 Lake Superior      28      36     @Kent (F), @Kent (S)
3 Western Michigan   28      36     @MS (F), IC (S)
4 Michigan State     28      35     @FS (R), WM (F)
5 Bowling Green      27      32     @Mia (T), Mich (F), @ND (S)
6 Miami              27      31     BG (T), @OS (F), OS (S)
 
 
Lake Superior (today: 2nd; highest: 2nd; lowest: 6th)
Wins tiebreaker with: MS (on goals), WM (by 1 goal), Mia
Loses tiebreaker with: BG
Magic numbers: WM (4)  MS (3)  BG (3)  Miami (1)
 
Controls own destiny: sweep Kent and they are #2.
 
Two points this weekend guarantees LSSU at least 3rd (unless BG wins
all 3). Three points gives the Lakers at least third. The key here for
the Soo is that WMU and MSU play each other, so it will be tough for
both teams to catch them.
 
Can finish as low as 6th if they are swept by Kent and Miami wins its
last 3 and WMU gets a point and MSU gets 2 points and BG beats Mich/ND.
 
 
Western Michigan (today: 3rd; highest: 2nd; lowest: 6th)
Wins tiebreaker with: MS, BG
Loses tiebreaker with: LS (goals), Mia
Magic numbers: MS (3)  BG (2)  Miami (2)
 
Can finish 3rd without anyone's help. Three of four points will lock it
up.
 
Will need help from Kent to finish 2nd. If Kent can steal a point from
the Lakers, then WMU can take #2 by sweeping its games.
 
Can finish as low as sixth if BG-Miami tie, both then sweep their last
2 games, and WMU loses its last 2.
 
 
Michigan State (today: 4th; highest: 2nd; lowest: 6th)
Wins tiebreaker with: BG
Loses tiebreaker with: LS, WM, Mia
Magic numbers:  BG (3)  Miami (3)
 
The Spartans control their own destiny in securing 3rd. If they beat
FSU on Thursday and Western on Friday, they would have 3rd locked up
regardless of what WMU does on Saturday.
 
No matter what happens in Tuesday's BG/Mia game, MSU could still finish
6th.  Two points for MSU and they will escape 6th and end up 5th or
better.
 
Three points and they will finish no worse than 4th.
 
 
Bowling Green (today: 5th; highest: 2nd; lowest: 6th)
Wins tiebreaker with: LS, Mia
Loses tiebreaker with: MS, WM
Magic number: Miami (5)
 
If BG beats Miami, then it only needs 1 point to clinch 5th. If Miami
wins, then BG would need help from Ohio State in order to stay out of
6th.
 
Can still finish 2nd, but the odds are pretty slim.
 
 
Miami (today: 6th; highest: 2nd; lowest: 6th)
Wins tiebreaker with: MS, WM
Loses tiebreaker with: LS, BG, FS
 
If they beat BG Tuesday, the Redksins are in the driver's seat for
5th.  Their magic number would then be 4, so a sweep over the Bucks or
a pair of splits for them and BG would give them 5th.
 
Can still finish 2nd, but the odds are very slim.