John Whelan's "if the season ended today" has reinforced my suspicion that
Michigan shot themselves in the foot with this weekend's success.  Two weeks ago
Tuesday, with Bowling Green vs Ohio State being the only hockey action in the
country, Michigan leapfrogged two teams in the PWR rankings by virtue of Bowling
Green's win over OSU.  That put BG, a team Michigan swept 3-0 in the regular
season, at .500, made them a TUC for PWR purposes and fattened Michigan's PWR.
BG then closed the season with another win over OSU, putting BG one game above
.500.
 
This past weekend, Michigan swept BG in two games, ending BG's season at one
game below .500 and relegating a team UM swept 5-0 (a team which swept OSU 3-0)
to "Team Not Under Consideration" status.  I felt Michigan could have benefited
from a Saturday night loss, which would have ensured BG couldn't slip below .500
on the season.  Instead, Michigan is now 12th in the PWR, passed by 11th-place
OSU.
 
Quite possibly, keeping BG above .500 would even have been worth the risk of
blowing the quarterfinal rubber game.  Any wins Michigan gains by continuing to
survive in the conference tournament merely bump wins off the early end of the
"last 16 games" factor.  And a loss to Ohio State in the semifinal would replace
a win with a loss in that category, while a win over OSU in the semifinal won't
reverse Michigan's unfavorable head-to-head factor vs OSU.
 
Short of going all the way to the tournament championship to gain the automatic
NCAA bid, I'm not sure that sweeping the quarterfinal could possibly put
Michigan in better shape than splitting the quarterfinals would have.  Can
anyone running a PWR application answer that?  Merely tacking a season ending
win onto BG's record and a corresponding loss onto Michigan's current status
would show the benefit of a three game split (vs the two game sweep) to Michigan
and the detriment to OSU.  I'm guessing that Michigan would pass OSU and that
any remaining games, if Michigan State wins the CCHA tournament, wouldn't change
that result.  Should Michigan have blown one for the Gipper?
 
Bob
 
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