Here's a chart that is similar to the one I did last year around this time.
Some of the things the NCAA has put a lot of stock in, in past years, is
record against top ~23 teams, top 14, and top 8. I ranked the DivI
teams by winning percentage in DivI games, then listed their records
against the top 23, top 14, and top 8 (actually 9 since BU & UNH have same
pct). The top 23 was arrived at by taking all teams with a record at or
above .500, and adding in the two independents with the best chance at
getting a bid. The chart is below; following that is my current guess
at who will get the bids and where they will be seeded, with some comments.
2/25/91
No Team Vs All Div I Vs Top 23 Vs Top 14 Vs Top 8(9)
============================================================================
1 Lake Superior 31-3-4 .868 12-3-4 .737 6-3-2 .636 3-2-1 .583
2 Northern Michigan 29-5-4 .816 8-3-3 .679 5-3-2 .600 1-3-2 .333
3 Michigan 29-6-3 .803 12-5-2 .684 6-4-1 .591 3-3-1 .500
4 Maine 28-7-2 .784 14-6-1 .690 12-6-0 .667 10-5-0 .667
5 Minnesota 24-6-5 .757 7-3-3 .654 4-2-3 .611 1-2-2 .400
6 Boston College 27-9-0 .750 17-6-0 .739 14-4-0 .778 10-3-0 .769
7 Clarkson 20-7-2 .724 11-5-1 .676 3-4-1 .438 2-2-0 .500
8 Boston University 22-10-2 .676 9-9-2 .500 6-8-2 .438 3-8-1 .292
9 New Hampshire 22-10-2 .676 8-8-2 .500 4-8-2 .357 2-7-1 .250
10 Wisconsin 24-11-3 .671 7-9-2 .444 1-7-1 .167 0-7-1 .063
11 Providence 19-9-2 .667 9-7-2 .556 4-7-2 .385 3-7-2 .333
12 Cornell 15-8-3 .635 6-6-3 .500 3-2-1 .583 1-2-1 .375
13 Ferris State 21-12-5 .618 6-8-2 .438 2-5-1 .313 2-5-1 .313
14 St Lawrence 18-11-1 .617 7-10-0 .412 1-8-0 .111 1-4-0 .200
15 RPI 16-11-0 .593 5-11-0 .313 2-8-0 .200 1-4-0 .200
16 Colgate 15-10-4 .586 3-8-1 .292 3-5-0 .375 1-2-0 .333
17 North Dakota 21-15-2 .579 5-9-1 .367 3-9-1 .269 1-6-1 .188
18 Vermont 15-12-2 .552 5-11-0 .313 2-8-0 .200 0-5-0 .000
19 Western Michigan 19-16-3 .539 4-11-1 .281 2-10-1 .192 0-9-0 .000
20 Harvard 13-11-2 .538 6-7-2 .467 3-5-1 .389 1-4-0 .200
21 Michigan State 16-16-5 .500 5-11-4 .350 4-9-3 .344 3-6-3 .375
22 Alaska-Fairbanks 10-10-1 .500 2-6-0 .250 0-4-0 .000 0-0-0 .000
23 Alaska-Anchorage 12-14-4 .467 2-8-2 .250 0-4-2 .167 0-2-1 .167
============================================================================
WEST EAST
Lake Superior 1 Boston College
Michigan 2 Maine
Northern Michigan 3 Clarkson
Minnesota 4 Boston University
Ferris State/Wisconsin 5 Providence/Cornell
Alaska-Anchorage/ 6 Cornell/UNH
Alaska-Fairbanks
WEST NOTES: LSSU easy as top seed...I picked Michigan as #2 over NMU
because overall, vs 23, and vs 14 were pretty equal; Michigan
was far better vs top 9 and was 8-1-1 vs common opponents while
NMU was 8-2-0. This could go either way and I don't expect the
committee to shut two conferences out of home-ice berths, so
NMU may actually get 2nd...NMU over Minnesota because of common
opponents (24-2-2 to 21-4-3) and better overall record...Ferris-
Wisconsin is a tough one; I lean towards Ferris because of their
better top 14 & top 9 records (Wisconsin's are awful); no common
opponents to look at...as for independent, it's too close to call;
the teams have at least 2, maybe 3 games left between them and
those may decide it.
EAST NOTES: BC easy as top seed; both BC and Maine were far ahead of
anyone else and BC was just ahead of Maine, plus BC's 2-1 season
series lead. I don't think that even if Maine beats BC in the
playoffs (should they meet in the HE championship game) that it
will be enough to beat them out for the top seed...Clarkson was
strong against top 23 & top 14 and a little better against top 8,
plus they beat BU and NH; BU had three times as many top 9 games,
but they didn't win a significant percentage of them ...BU 2-0-1
v. PC; BU ahead of Cornell because of 8-5-0 (.615) record against
common opponents, Cornell 6-4-3 (.577)...PC over Cornell because
of 7-3-0 v. common opp., Cornell 6-4-0.
The EAST seedings are given in the case that Providence defeats UNH
Friday night, and also because I think PC is rated just a little bit
better than UNH at this point. If UNH wins, then I give them the sixth
seed (2-1-1 vs. PC) and bump Cornell up to 5th because vs. common opp.,
Cornell was 10-3-1 (.750) while UNH was 9-4 (.692).
At this point, Cornell gets the slight edge over both Wisconsin and Ferris.
What kept some teams out:
St Lawrence loses out to Cornell (0-2 head-to-head, worse v. top 14 & 9)
and Ferris (also worse v. top 14 & 9).
RPI loses out to SLU which didn't get in anyway.
North Dakota did not do well against higher-ranked teams; almost beat out
Wisconsin, as Wisconsin was 18-9-3 vs. common opp. and UND was
18-10-2, but season series went to Wisconsin, 3-2 (deciding game
was championship of Badger Showdown).
Michigan State had .500 overall record.
The others listed above weren't really serious contenders, as their
numbers show.
REMEMBER: since the tourney winners get automatic bids, if a team other
than one mentioned above wins its tourney, that could confuse everything.
I do not believe that any team other than the 15 listed under seedings
above can make the NCAAs if it does not *win* its tournament (and get
the automatic bid).
Comments, questions, and criticism (constructive!) are, of course,
welcome.
- mike, guru east
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