This is long but, hopefully, thorough.
Saturday, RPI has control of where they finish, assuming they win,
but have no control over who they'll play. Three games (Yale-
Colgate, Dartmouth-St. Lawrence and Princeton-Cornell) have a
bearing on RPI's first-round playoff games, creating 27
permutations (counting ties) for every RPI outcome, or 81
permutations overall. Only the Union-Brown game is irrelevant (to
RPI).
NOTE: I'm not going to explain the tie-breakers. All the results
take the tie-breakers into account.
NOTE: No guarantees I'm entirely correct with everything, but I
think I am.
NOTE: You might be better off just waiting until the games are
done tomorrow night. Then there's only one permutation.
If you are an RPI fan, you want:
1. RPI to win.
2. If not 1, then RPI to tie.
3. If not 1 or 2, St. Lawrence to not lose to Dartmouth.
4. If not any of those three, then Princeton to beat Cornell.
Now that you're (possibly) confused, let's look at this more closely.
IF RPI DEFEATS HARVARD--
* RPI finishes alone in 3rd in the conference.
* RPI hosts either Cornell, Harvard or Dartmouth.
* If St. Lawrence defeats Dartmouth, RPI will host Dartmouth.
* RPI will also host Dartmouth if Dartmouth and St. Lawrence tie
AND Princeton does NOT defeat Cornell.
* RPI can only host Cornell if Princeton defeats Cornell AND St.
Lawrence does NOT defeat Dartmouth.
* If Dartmouth defeats St. Lawrence AND Princeton does NOT
defeat Cornell, RPI hosts Harvard.
Of the 27 scenarios here, RPI plays Dartmouth in 15, Harvard in 6
and Cornell in 6. Given that St. Lawrence has the best record in
the league, an RPI win likely puts the Big Green in Troy the
following week.
IF RPI TIES HARVARD--
* RPI finishes 4th or 5th in the conference.
* RPI finishes 4th if the Princeton-Cornell game ends in a tie.
* If either Princeton or Cornell win, RPI finishes 5th.
* RPI hosts either Harvard or Dartmouth.
* RPI hosts Dartmouth if the Princeton-Cornell game ends in a tie
AND Dartmouth defeats St. Lawrence.
* RPI hosts Dartmouth if the Yale-Colgate, Dartmouth-St. Lawrence
and Princeton-Cornell games ALL end in ties. (Really highly
unlikely.)
* Any other scenario has RPI hosting Harvard.
Of the 27 scenarios here, RPI plays Harvard in 23 and Dartmouth in
4. Considering the unlikely events required to host Dartmouth, an
RPI tie almost certainly has the Crimson in Troy the following week.
IF RPI LOSES TO HARVARD--
* RPI finishes 6th, 7th or 8th in the conference.
* RPI only finishes 8th if the Princeton-Cornell game ends in a tie
AND Dartmouth beats St. Lawrence.
* RPI finishes 7th if the Princeton-Cornell game ends in a tie and
Dartmouth does NOT beat St. Lawrence.
* RPI also finishes 7th if Dartmouth beats St. Lawrence AND
Cornell beats Princeton.
* Any other scenario has RPI finishing 6th.
* RPI travels to play either Harvard or Clarkson.
* RPI travels to Clarkson if they finish 8th as stated above.
* RPI also travels to Clarkson if Dartmouth beats St. Lawrence
AND Cornell beats Princeton.
* Any other scenario has RPI traveling to Harvard.
Of the 27 scenarios here, RPI plays at Harvard in 21 and Clarkson
in 4. For RPI to go to Clarkson it requires the #1 team, St.
Lawrence, to lose to Dartmouth, so it's not likely. But RPI can
avoid Clarkson, a pretty hot team right now, by having Princeton
beat Cornell or St. Lawrence not to lose to Dartmouth. Odds are if
RPI loses to Harvard they'll be right back at the Bright Hockey
Center 6 days later.
My personal thought: Win, beat Dartmouth the next week, avoid
the play-in game, play the semi's on Friday.
But we'll see.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Kurt Stutt [log in to unmask] Troy, New York
"Is life so dear, or peace so sweet,
as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?"
--Patrick Henry, in his speech to the
Virginia House of Burgesses, March 23, 1775
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