David Carroll <[log in to unmask]> writes:
> With "strength of schedule" being so
> important in making the NC$$ tournament, it's understandable that any school
> with a pipe-dream chance of making it to the top RPI ratings will not
> jeopardize that with a Div. III opponent.
 
Actually, games between a D1 team and a non-D1 opponent have no bearing
whatsoever on selection for the D1 tournament.  Only games between two
teams eligible for the D1 tournament are considered.  So a D1 team could
play RIT and not jeopardize its chances at all -- it might even be
better than playing a lower D1 team since it has been shown that in some
cases your rating can drop even if you win.
 
At the same time, D1 coaches tend to avoid using countable games against
non-D1 opponents because they want to play as many games as possible
that will be included in tourney selection.
 
> > My personal feeling is that  RIT is ripe for a move up to Division I.
> > Chris Lerch and I have debated this point before (remember
> > Chris?).  RIT really has done everything it can at the D-III level,
> >  including winning national championships.
>
> I agree with this.  They have the example of Union to follow.  The Dutchmen
> took some lumps the first few years in Div. I after being a Div. III power
> (perhaps contradicting Todd's divisional parity idea) but they can be tough
> on any given night.  It certainly gives the school more exposure, and
> they're definitely not a punching bag at the higher level - isn't that
> better than beating up on weak Div. III opponents clearly not on your level?
 
Did Union ever win a national championship?  I don't think they did.
They were also not dominant in D3 -- they were one of the better teams
but not dominating on a regular basis.  I don't believe they even made
it to a single D3 final in the 7-8 years or so prior to moving up to D1.
 
And there is also the very good question of whether it is better to be
winning in D3 than struggling in D1.  Union is not a pushover, but it
seems that it's going to be very tough for them to establish the kind of
success they had in D3 without further changes in the way the school
approaches hockey.
 
Alabama-Huntsville has seemed happier winning D2 championships the last
few years than struggling in D1 as it did before moving back to D2.
Even though there have only been a couple of teams on their level in
D2.  What it may come down to is that fans are happier and the mood
around the locker room is better when you win.
 
You can only go so long losing tough games against good opponents before
you just get tired of losing (and it doesn't matter who you are losing
to).  Ask Merrimack.  Early on it was a feather in their cap to play
Maine, BC or BU tough but lose.  After a few years of this there were no
more moral victories.  Just wins and losses.  They might have opened
some eyes playing BC tough last week in their 2-1 loss but to them, they
still did not get the two points.  And the standings do not care if you
lost to the first place team or the last place team.
 
If you are stuck in a situation where you are just looking for moral
victories and get the odd win, that's a sign that something is not
right.  I don't think it's right for a team to have to keep going
through that year after year.  This is the situation that schools like
RIT risk getting into if they make the jump to the big time for the
wrong reasons.
 
> > Already this season RIT has scored ten or more goals four times,
> > and a quick look at their season results show they've dominated
> > nearly all of their opponents.
>
> This certainly sounds like it's time for the move - how often do you hear
> about even a great Div I school racking up 10 goals against an opponent?
 
This doesn't mean that RIT is far and away the best team in D3 and
belongs in D1.  It only means that they've dominated some of the teams
they have played.  RIT's schedule is dictated to some extent by factors
beyond its control.  Playing in a four team league, they have to find 19
nonleague games.  That is a lot.  So for several reasons they will play
some teams that they are much better than.  But they will not be playing
many of the better D3 teams.
 
RIT could go undefeated this year.  Looking at their schedule, I only
see a handful of games which look like they should be good ones (of
course, if an underdog gets close to upsetting them, that will be a good
one too).  But even if they do go undefeated and win the D3
championship, does this mean they should move up to D1?  Not
necessarily.  Ideally RIT would at least be able to schedule more games
against top D3 clubs.  I am sure no one feels that way more than the
team itself.  With the changes bound to happen in the offseason in D3,
this should be RIT's prime goal, finding a home where it can play better
competition night in and out.
 
A program should not move up unless it has clearly defined its goals and
objectives and laid out a plan for getting to where it wants to be.  As
well as having the resolve and commitment to follow that plan.  This is
a process each school must follow and the answers are different for each
school.  If RIT decides that D1 hockey helps them to meet their goals
and objectives, and they are committed to doing what they have to do,
then maybe it is the right move to make.  But it would be a mistake to
do it just because they are dominating many of their games this season.
---
Mike Machnik
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