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| Date: | Tue, 10 Mar 1998 17:34:38 -0700 |
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> Date: Tue, 10 Mar 1998 17:38:08 -0600
> From: Eeyore <[log in to unmask]>
> Subject: A DIFFERENT Hypothetical PWR Question
>
> Perhaps one of those who crunch the numbers on PWR could answer this one
> for me.
>
> It seems to me that there is an ugly bias lurking in the "Common
> Opponents" criterion of the comparisons, namely the number of times each
> team has played the common opponents. I'll cite the most extreme
> example I can hypothetically construct off the top of my head: a WCHA
> team and a HE team who's only common opponents are Boston University and
> Alaska-Anchorage. Say that each team has played the non-conference
> opponent once (in, say, a holiday tournament). With regular in
> conferencing schedules, our HE team has played much stiffer "common
> opponents" than our WCHA team, since they played a top notch team (BU)
> three times while the WCHA team played UAA four times. If each team has
> won all of its games against Anchorage and lost all of its games to BU,
> the WCHA team would ge a point in the comparison for its 4-1 record vs.
> a 1-3 record.
>
> It hardly seems like a fair comparison. Is there any sort of correction
> run in a case like this? While my extreme example might not happen, I
> suspect that this weighting problem is very common on a smaller scale.
>
> J. Michael Neal
>
> HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey; send information to
> [log in to unmask], The College Hockey Information List.
>
here's the data play with it, look at it and you make the call if you
really think there's a bias....
There are 190 common opponent lines in the PWR file from USCHO
13 pairs never competed
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 1- 0 0 1- 3- 0 1
COP 0- 1- 0 0 1- 3- 0 1
COP 0- 5- 1 0 5- 3- 0 1
COP 1- 0- 0 0 1- 0- 0 0
COP 1- 0- 0 0 2- 0- 0 0
COP 1- 0- 0 0 2- 0- 0 0
COP 1- 0- 0 0 2- 0- 0 0
COP 1- 0- 0 1 0- 0- 2 0
COP 1- 0- 0 1 0- 2- 0 0
COP 1- 0- 0 1 0- 2- 0 0
COP 1- 0- 0 1 1- 0- 1 0
COP 1- 0- 1 0 1- 0- 0 1
COP 1- 0- 1 0 1- 0- 0 1
COP 1- 0- 2 1 0- 1- 0 0
COP 1- 0- 2 1 0- 1- 0 0
COP 1- 1- 0 0 1- 0- 0 1
COP 1- 1- 0 0 4- 0- 0 1
COP 1- 1- 0 1 1- 2- 0 0
COP 1- 1- 0 1 1- 2- 0 0
COP 1- 1- 1 0 1- 0- 0 1
COP 1- 1- 1 1 1- 2- 0 0
COP 1- 2- 0 0 2- 1- 0 1
COP 1- 2- 0 0 3- 2- 0 1
COP 1- 2- 0 1 0- 1- 0 0
COP 1- 2- 1 0 3- 2- 0 1
COP 1- 3- 0 0 3- 1- 0 1
COP 1- 4- 0 0 4- 1- 1 1
COP 2- 0- 0 0 1- 0- 0 0
COP 2- 0- 0 0 1- 0- 0 0
COP 2- 0- 0 0 3- 0- 0 0
COP 2- 0- 0 1 0- 0- 2 0
COP 2- 0- 0 1 1- 2- 1 0
COP 2- 0- 0 1 2- 1- 0 0
COP 2- 0- 0 1 2- 4- 0 0
COP 2- 0- 0 1 3- 3- 0 0
COP 2- 0- 1 1 0- 2- 0 0
COP 2- 1- 0 0 2- 1- 0 0
COP 2- 1- 0 0 3- 1- 0 1
COP 2- 1- 0 0 4- 0- 1 1
COP 2- 1- 0 1 0- 2- 0 0
COP 2- 1- 0 1 1- 1- 2 0
COP 2- 1- 0 1 4- 2- 3 0
COP 2- 1- 0 1 5- 3- 1 0
COP 2- 1- 1 0 2- 1- 0 1
COP 2- 1- 1 0 3- 0- 0 1
COP 2- 1- 1 0 4- 2- 0 1
COP 2- 1- 1 1 1- 2- 0 0
COP 2- 2- 0 0 2- 2- 1 0
COP 2- 2- 0 0 3- 2- 0 1
COP 2- 2- 0 0 4- 1- 0 1
COP 2- 2- 1 0 3- 1- 0 1
COP 2- 2- 1 1 2- 4- 1 0
COP 2- 5- 0 0 3- 2- 0 1
COP 2- 7- 2 0 3- 5- 0 1
COP 2- 7- 3 0 2- 3- 0 1
COP 3- 0- 0 0 3- 0- 0 0
COP 3- 0- 0 0 6- 0- 0 0
COP 3- 0- 0 1 0- 1- 0 0
COP 3- 0- 0 1 3- 2- 1 0
COP 3- 0- 0 1 3- 4- 0 0
COP 3- 0- 0 1 5- 0- 1 0
COP 3- 0- 0 1 5- 1- 0 0
COP 3- 0- 1 1 3- 3- 0 0
COP 3- 1- 0 0 9- 1- 0 1
COP 3- 1- 0 1 0- 4- 2 0
COP 3- 1- 0 1 2- 6- 1 0
COP 3- 1- 0 1 3- 2- 0 0
COP 3- 1- 1 1 2- 1- 0 0
COP 3- 1- 1 1 4- 3- 0 0
COP 3- 2- 1 0 2- 1- 0 1
COP 3- 2- 1 1 4- 3- 0 0
COP 3- 3- 0 0 3- 0- 0 1
COP 3- 3- 1 0 2- 2- 0 0
COP 3- 3- 1 0 4- 0- 0 1
COP 3- 4- 1 0 6- 0- 0 1
COP 3- 4- 1 1 0- 2- 1 0
COP 4- 0- 0 1 1- 2- 0 0
COP 4- 0- 0 1 2- 1- 1 0
COP 4- 0- 0 1 3- 1- 0 0
COP 4- 0- 1 1 5- 1- 0 0
COP 4- 1- 0 1 1- 1- 0 0
COP 4- 1- 1 0 2- 0- 0 1
COP 4- 1- 1 1 4- 4- 0 0
COP 4- 1- 1 1 5- 2- 0 0
COP 4- 2- 0 1 0- 2- 1 0
COP 4- 2- 0 1 4- 3- 1 0
COP 4- 2- 1 0 4- 1- 0 1
COP 4- 2- 1 1 1- 1- 1 0
COP 4- 3- 0 0 7- 0- 0 1
COP 4- 3- 0 0 10- 2- 1 1
COP 4- 3- 1 1 3- 4- 0 0
COP 5- 0- 0 1 3- 5- 0 0
COP 5- 0- 0 1 5- 8- 1 0
COP 5- 0- 0 1 6- 2- 0 0
COP 5- 1- 0 1 4- 1- 0 0
COP 5- 1- 1 1 1- 1- 1 0
COP 5- 1- 2 0 8- 1- 0 1
COP 5- 2- 0 0 3- 0- 0 1
COP 5- 2- 0 0 3- 0- 0 1
COP 5- 2- 0 1 7- 4- 1 0
COP 5- 2- 1 1 2- 2- 0 0
COP 5- 2- 2 0 8- 1- 0 1
COP 5- 2- 2 1 1- 2- 0 0
COP 5- 4- 0 1 2- 4- 0 0
COP 5- 5- 1 0 7- 5- 1 1
COP 5- 9- 1 0 7- 4- 2 1
COP 6- 1- 1 0 9- 2- 0 1
COP 6- 1- 1 1 12- 3- 0 0
COP 6- 3- 1 0 7- 3- 0 1
COP 6- 4- 3 1 5- 4- 0 0
COP 6- 5- 0 1 3- 5- 0 0
COP 6- 6- 0 1 2- 3- 0 0
COP 7- 1- 0 1 8- 5- 1 0
COP 7- 2- 1 0 11- 2- 0 1
COP 7- 3- 1 1 2- 3- 0 0
COP 7- 4- 1 1 2- 4- 0 0
COP 7- 6- 1 0 11- 2- 0 1
COP 8- 0- 1 1 1- 2- 0 0
COP 8- 1- 0 1 3- 1- 0 0
COP 8- 1- 0 1 4- 4- 1 0
COP 9- 2- 1 1 2- 4- 1 0
COP 9- 2- 1 1 5- 7- 0 0
COP 9- 2- 1 1 5- 7- 1 0
COP 9- 3- 1 1 7- 5- 2 0
COP 9- 4- 2 1 5- 5- 1 0
COP 9- 7- 7 0 18- 5- 1 1
COP 9- 8- 5 0 13- 8- 3 1
COP 9-11- 3 0 15- 6- 3 1
COP 10- 0- 1 1 13- 2- 0 0
COP 10- 2- 0 0 5- 0- 0 1
COP 10- 3- 2 1 8- 3- 0 0
COP 10- 7- 1 0 7- 4- 2 1
COP 10-13- 4 0 18- 8- 1 1
COP 11- 1- 0 1 5- 2- 0 0
COP 11- 2- 1 1 3- 2- 3 0
COP 11- 4- 3 1 6- 2- 4 0
COP 11- 9- 4 1 8- 8- 7 0
COP 11-13- 3 0 13-11- 3 1
COP 12- 4- 3 1 5- 6- 1 0
COP 12- 9- 4 0 19- 5- 1 1
COP 12-11- 4 0 19- 5- 4 1
COP 12-11- 4 0 19- 8- 1 1
COP 12-12- 2 0 16- 8- 2 1
COP 12-13- 2 0 14-12- 1 1
COP 13-10- 4 0 17- 9- 1 1
COP 13-10- 4 1 13-11- 3 0
COP 13-11- 2 0 21- 4- 1 1
COP 14- 4- 4 1 16- 6- 1 0
COP 14- 9- 1 1 14-10- 0 0
COP 14-11- 2 0 21- 5- 2 1
COP 14-11- 4 0 22- 6- 1 1
COP 15- 2- 0 1 13- 4- 0 0
COP 15- 3- 2 0 16- 3- 1 1
COP 15- 4- 2 1 7- 8- 6 0
COP 15- 4- 2 1 11- 7- 4 0
COP 15- 5- 1 1 9-10- 3 0
COP 15- 6- 4 0 18- 5- 1 1
COP 15- 9- 3 0 16-10- 1 0
COP 15-12- 1 0 17-10- 1 1
COP 16- 0- 0 1 5- 4- 6 0
COP 16- 6- 1 1 11- 9- 3 0
COP 17- 8- 2 1 15- 9- 2 0
COP 17- 8- 2 1 15-10- 1 0
COP 18- 3- 0 1 9- 7- 2 0
COP 18- 5- 1 1 16- 7- 1 0
COP 18- 5- 4 1 16- 8- 2 0
COP 18- 6- 4 0 23- 3- 1 1
COP 18- 9- 2 1 14-12- 2 0
COP 19- 3- 2 1 14- 7- 3 0
COP 19- 7- 1 0 20- 6- 0 1
COP 19- 8- 1 0 19- 7- 1 1
COP 20- 3- 1 1 18- 7- 0 0
COP 20- 4- 4 1 18- 8- 1 0
COP 21- 4- 1 1 15- 9- 2 0
COP 21- 7- 1 1 14-11- 3 0
COP 23- 4- 3 1 14-13- 3 0
COP 24- 4- 1 1 20- 5- 4 0
charlie shub University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
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(719) 262-3492 (fax) 262-3369 http://www.cs.uccs.edu/~cdash
HOCKEY-L is for discussion of college ice hockey; send information to
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