Once again, I'll have to disagree with those such as Nathan Boyle who
really think that major changes in the college hockey world are underway.
 
Let's take a look at the CCHA.  UIC has dropped hockey.  Ohio State and
Notre Dame appear to be in the midst of making upgrades.  They have upped
the ante on what it will take to remain competitive in the league.  For a
variety of reasons, I don't expect that either will become a dominant power
in the CCHA, but they won't be the doormats they have been for a long time.
 Why have they made this upgrade?  Because they think that there is money
in it.  In this new world, I am absolutely convinced that Ferris State will
be following UIC shortly.  I've picked up a rumor that there athletic
department is in dire straits as it is; they certainly aren't going to be
in a position to do anything about the high school gymnasium they play
their hockey games in.  Not just competitively but also financially, they
won't be able to remain in the same league with the big powers very long.
 
Further, the question of how long the major schools are prepared to not
take the steps that might secure them a large TV contract is an important
one.  That is a large chunk of change and may be impossible to turn down
for those in charge regardless of what we might think about it.  The way
they might be able to secure that is to put together an arrangement that
involves more play between the sellable names (which, unfortunately, does
not include a large number of the CCHA, regardless of how good they are on
the ice).  It means an 'elite' league or something that looks a lot like
it.  In the long run, that will be the conference that gets a large number
of the NCAA bids as well.  It's going to be very hard for the teams on the
outside of it to compete with that kind of recruiting edge.
 
Nathan either said or implied that the rest of the league will be able to
keep these schools from leaving.  How?  They certainly can't just forbid
it.  Someone asked who they would play since they couldn't just spend all
their time playing each other.  There are two answers to that.  They would
free up a number of games to play 'elite' Eastern schools; I think teams
like BU and Maine would jump at the chance to get some of these programs on
their schedule.  Besides, they'll be bringing in the Eastern media markets.
 The other answer is that they will play non-conference games against some
of the same schools they play now.  Do you really think that some sort of
embargo against the teams that leave would really hold?  Considering the
chance to get a slice of the gate and TV revenues just like a lot of the
small basketball programs do?  It's not just the money; lots of people
would want to keep some of these rivalries alive.  Such a split couldn't be
any more bitter than the ECAC/HE one was, and they still play each other.
 
All of this reamins true despite the fact that some official voices are
saying it won't happen.  UIC denied that they were going to cancel hockey
for a while, too.  Besides, I'm not saying that this idea has made it to
the concrete proposal stage, just that I'm sure it has crossed hte minds of
people a lot more influential than I.  Also, no offense to Jeff Weiss
intended as he does a very good job and is very informative, but he is a
CCHA employee.  It's his JOB to deny that anything like this might occur.
Sorry to impugn your integrity Jeff, but you're saddled with the behavior
of people in media relations positions in all walks of life.
 
Much the same situation can be found in the WCHA.  If Colorado College
can't find the financing for their new arena (last I heard they hadn't, but
that was a while back) they're going to being riding on the edge of
disaster if Don Lucia can't keep the team as competitive as it has been.  I
remain very skeptical about the prospects for Mankato State and,
particularly, Nebraska-Omaha.  MSU has a very nice arena (at a previous
job, I ran the blueprints for it), but SW Minnesota is not exactly a hockey
hotbed.  Also, supporting a junior team (as they do in Omaha) is not the
same thing as supporting a college team.  They generally do not draw fans
from the same element of the population.  There are two ways in which UNO
is trying uncharted waters: they are bringing hockey to a new area and
trying to run a Division 1 team for the first time in any sport.  By my
reckoning in a crummy atlas, Omaha is less than 60 miles from Lincoln.
Combine the drawing power of the Lincoln Campus's sports, the lack of
hockey background for the locals, the commuter nature of the campus and the
political pressures of being the #2 campus and I simply do not see this
venture being a success.  Much like Ferris State in the CCHA, it will have
the effect of making the WCHA a less attractive home for the big powers
 
I will admit to being somewhat ambivalent about the possiblity of an
'elite' league forming.  I like the WCHA as it is currently structured and
would be more than happy to remain in it.  St. Cloud has been a good
addition, but I don't see that it is likely to work as well in all cases.
I'm less convinced that Anchorage is ever going to overcome the obstacle of
travel a be competitive, but Hawaii has managed in the WAC, so I'm willing
to give it a go.  But if  every program that decides to form is going to be
admitted to the WCHA, I'll happily vote for adding Michigan, Michigan State
and the other 'elite' schools to our regular schedule.  Is this elitist of
me (in a sense different from the way I've been using 'elite')?  I suppose
it is.  All I can say is that I'm glad I root for a team that will have the
opportunity to make this choice.
 
J. Michael Jackson
 
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