From what I remember of Bill James's analysis teams that overachieve
(i.e., have an actual winning percentage that higher than the predicted
based on their points scored and points allowed) tend to fall back to
earth in subsequent seasons. Teams that underachieve tend to rebound
in subsequent seasons. In otherwords, if UML did overachieve this year,
they should not be expected to do as well next year.
 
This trend may hold true in major league baseball (James's millieu), with
its (relatively) stable rosters. College athletics, however, has a higher
turnover.
 
Ken Kretsch             | "Coach, my Mom wants me to live for my Bar Mitzvah"
BU '79                  | "Goldberg, this is your Bar Mitzvah. Today you
[log in to unmask]        |  become a man!"
 
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