Thank you very much Mike for so vividly outlineing the Hockey
East 6-7-8 Playoff seeding possibilities. It was sort of like reading the
NFL wild card scenarios with one game left, one spot open, and six 8-7
teams. Those ties and extra shootout points sure do make things
interesting here!
My read on this is the reason that none of these teams want to be
eighth, the fact that they would have to face the Minutemen in an extra
playoff game, and then truck up to Orono (a real bummer for PC mileage
wise). Here's a UMass slanted perspective on the whole scenario.
MERRIMACK: First, of all of the three it is the least likely that we'll
face the Warriors. That would require a BC win at Walter Brown (unlikely)
and a PC win over a hot Lowell team.
God forbid this matchup does occur, it would be the toughest of
the three for UMass. In three outings against Merrimack this season, the
Minutemen have not been able to solve Martin Leagult, who has been the
deciding factor in all three meetings between the clubs.
UMass does have the size to counter Merrimack's twin towers
(McKenna and Jakopin) which prevents the Warriors from utalizing it like
I hear they do against some teams (I confess to not seeing MC, this year
except for our three meetings).
UMass would have to get to Legault early and bank on their own
phenom goalie, Brian Regan, to hold the fort from there. Merrimack has
NEVER hosted a Hockey East playoff game so it's tough to say if the crowd
could contribute to a home ice factor for the Warriors. 842 attended the
last meeting between the two schools. If UMass could bust out of the gate
and make Merrimack play catch up against Regan, on a rink where UMass
could utalize its defense (smaller ice than Mullins), and not have to
deal with a hostile crowd, a UMass win is possible. Unlikely, but possible.
PROVIDENCE: With BC holding the tiebreaker over PC, and a perfect
five point gap between them, there is a significant chance that UMass
could be off to Schneider Arena on the 7th. This would require a BC
victory over either MC or BU (neither of which they've done this year)
so it's still less likely than a trip to Conte, but more likely than a visit
to Volpe.
In Schneider Arena this season, UMass played it's best road game
of the season when they defeated PC 7-3 on January 20th. Their first trip
to Providence, was an even game that some shoddy officiating gave to the
Friars 5-4 in OT. UMass feels more confident in Schneider Arena than in
any other Hockey East arena, and of the three possibilities people are
nearly unanimous in their opinion that UMass has the best chance to win
here.
Crowds typically are not a factor here, and although it's listed
as NHL sized 200x85 ice, it looks smaller than that to me. The smaller
the rink, the better UMass plays as was evidenced by their near upset of
Northeastern last night and fairly close game at UNH. UMass just doesn't
have the speed to cover Mullins' Olympic sized rink and at Schneider the
don't have that to worry about, and have been more effective there.
The Minutemen thoroughly demolished the Friars their last trip
here and that momentum will carry over when they set sights on the arena.
That night things got so ugly that WMUA announcers nicknamed PC goalie
Bob Bell, Bob "Terri" Bell.
PC's scoring comes primarily from Chad Quenville and the
Minuteman D has been able to contain him in both games at PC. He didn't
play at Mullins due to a game misconduct. Meanwhile, the Minutemen really
moved the puck well in the offensive zone. This made PC's D work and
eventually crumble.
The thing that could be a problem is that Providence is a hot
team. They manhandled BU 8-1 and tied UNH up at UNH (sort of) Friday
night and took the shootout. Like Merrimack, PC has been used to playing
in front of friends and family and the guys in the press box who HAVE to
be there.
Our two games there drew a combined 2,039. Our smallest Hockey
East crowd at Mullins was 2,147 the day after a storm dropped a foot of
snow on Feb. 5. Despite averaging about 1,500 or so this year, the Friars
brought in 2,333 for BU and after that game, many would come back. That
place was basicaly neutral ice when we played there before. If they could
fill it, it might be a different story. First of all, just seeing the
place packed would give Providence a huge emotional lift, and secondly
I'd bet that place gets real LOUD. The seats are right on top of the ice
and it has a very low roof, reminicent of BU. If it's a tenth as loud at
BU for a Maine game, UMass might have a problem.
However, I see UMass beating PC if that scenario arises, and
heading north up 95 for Maine.
BOSTON COLLEGE: Since seventh would require a win either at Merrimack or
BU, I'm making my March 7th travel plans for Chestnut Hill, but I'm still
just penciling them in.
UMass has had some weak efforts this season, but unargueably and
beyond a shadow of a doubt, their worst game of the season was played
January 6th in Conte Forum, where they fell behind 8-1 to BC and ended up
losing 8-4. UMass did nothing right in this game. The defense did an
abysmal job of clearing the puck out from in front of the beseiged
goaltenders, who had no prayer all night long. Most of the BC goals came
on rebounds of pucks that should have been cleared long beforehand.
Of couse, the next night at Mullins, UMass registered their first
League win, with a 5-3 victory, before an enthusiastic 5,492. One thing
UMass was able to do both nights was get pucks past Greg Taylor.
Offensive numbers have been low for UMass this season, and this is
important. Usually UMass goalies must go out with a mindset that they can't
expect much offense so they HAVE to hold the fort, and this puts a lot of
undue pressure and strain on the netminders.
In any event, BC would be a tougher test for the Minutemen than
Providence, but both more likely and easier than Merrimack. Either way,
either UMass, BC, PC, or MC will have to go through Orono to get to the
Gahden. Not likely in any of the four cases, but heck, winning at Maine
isn't likely in BU's case either.
Leigh
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