And now for something completely different... the ECAC Tiebreaking
Brouhaha!  Only eleven teams are jockeying for positions this coming
weekend, as Brown has wrapped up the #12 spot in the league.  (They can
catch current #11 Rensselaer, but the Engineers hold the tiebreaker edge)

In addition to the Bears, the top three spots in the ECAC have resolved
themselves rather nicely; it will be Yale, Princeton, and Cornell, in some
order.  However, the league presents its usual delightful mess with the
next six teams, all of which are within four points of each other.  Harvard
and Quinnipiac are the "feast-or-famine" teams; they could finish either
with a first-round bye or having to open the first round on the road.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?ecac.cgi

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than those two teams tied.  For example, if Dartmouth and Clarkson
     were to finish tied after this weekend, Dartmouth would win the tie-
     breaker based on wins in the league; however, in a three-way tie
     involving those two and St. Lawrence, Dartmouth would be seeded below
     Clarkson.


For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

I'm not a fan of using league wins as a tiebreaker (essentially saying that
a win and a loss is "better" than two ties, even though both would result
in the same number of points); however, I do have to say that, since the
ECAC added it as a criterion last year, a lot of potential ties have become
far easier to resolve.

And now, here it comes:

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up the top spot with three points on the weekend.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to third if they lose twice, Cornell also beats
     Brown, and Princeton gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Princeton and Cornell.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second with three points.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes first with a sweep if Yale gets no more than two
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to third if they lose twice and Cornell gets at
     least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell; could win or lose against Yale.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Yale, at Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Is guaranteed third place and can do no better without
     help.
     BEST CASE:  Takes first place with a sweep if Yale does not beat Colgate
     and Princeton gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Third.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Princeton; could win or lose against Yale.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Princeton, Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fourth with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to seventh with two losses if Harvard gets at least
     two points, Quinnipiac doesn't lose to Harvard, and either St. Lawrence
     gets at least one point or Clarkson sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union; loses to Harvard and Quinnipiac; could win or
     lose against St. Lawrence and Clarkson.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Union, at Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points would wrap up fifth place.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish fourth with two wins if Dartmouth does not
     sweep.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to eighth if they lose twice, Clarkson sweeps,
     Dartmouth gets at least one point, Harvard gets at least two points, and
     Quinnipiac gets at least three points.  This sets up a three-way tie for
     sixth involving St. Lawrence, Clarkson, and either Harvard or Quinni-
     piac, with the tiebreakers putting St. Lawrence eighth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Harvard, Clarkson, and Union; could win or lose
     against Dartmouth and Quinnipiac.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Quinnipiac, Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees sixth by beating Quinnipiac.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fourth with a sweep if Dartmouth and St. Lawrence
     each get no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to ninth if they lose twice, Clarkson sweeps, and
     Union beats St. Lawrence (or, if Clarkson and Union tie and they each
     win their other game).
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, and Clarkson; loses to
     Quinnipiac; could win or lose against Union.

Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up the #6 seed by beating Harvard and not losing to
     Dartmouth.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to fourth with two wins if Dartmouth does not beat
     Princeton and St. Lawrence gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to ninth if they lose twice, Union gets at least
     one point, and Clarkson gets at least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth, Harvard, and Clarkson; could win or lose
     against St. Lawrence and Union.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches eighth by beating Union.
     BEST CASE:  Can finish fifth with a sweep if Dartmouth and St. Lawrence
     both lose twice.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to tenth if they get swept and Colgate wins twice.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; loses to Harvard, Quinnipiac, and
     Colgate; could win or lose against Dartmouth and Union.

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Winning against Clarkson would give the Dutchmen eighth
     place.
     BEST CASE:  Takes fifth with a sweep if St. Lawrence loses twice,
     Dartmouth gets at least one point, Harvard gets no more than one point,
     and Quinnipiac does not sweep.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes ninth if they lose to St. Lawrence and do not beat
     Clarkson.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate; loses to Dartmouth; could win or lose
     against St. Lawrence, Harvard, Quinnipiac, and Clarkson.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Brown, at Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep guarantees tenth place.
     BEST CASE:  Would clinch ninth with two wins if Clarkson loses twice.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to eleventh if Rensselaer gets at least one more
     point than they do.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson; loses to Union and Rensselaer.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has clinched eleventh place and can do no better without
     help.
     BEST CASE:  Gets tenth place by picking up at least one more point than
     Colgate does.
     WORST CASE:  Eleventh.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown and Colgate.


--
Bill Fenwick                                                 DJF   5/27/94
Cornell '86 and '95                                          JCF   12/2/97
LET'S GO RED!!