Back again with the ECAC Tiebreaking Bonanza!  With two points separating
#1 and #4, and three points separating #5 and #8, the final weekend could
produce an even more unholy mess than usual, but at least there’s one easy
seeding we can get out of the way:  regardless of what they do in their
final two games, Brown will finish last.  The Bears will join Quinnipiac,
Princeton, and Yale (in some order) on the road for the first round of the
ECAC playoffs.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2006/ecac.cgiframe.shtml

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than those two teams tied.  For example, Union would win the
     tiebreaker against Harvard based on head-to-head record; however, in a
     three-way tie involving those two and St. Lawrence, Union would actually
     be seeded below Harvard.

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
6.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Though I've never seen it listed, I believe there is a seventh tiebreaker,
consisting of a coin flip between two teams or a drawing of lots among
three or more teams.

OK, here we go:


Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up the top spot with three points on the weekend.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes fourth if they lose twice, Colgate gets at least
     two points, Dartmouth beats Clarkson, Harvard sweeps, and St. Lawrence
     defeats Dartmouth.  This would set up a three-way tie for third place,
     with the tiebreakers placing Cornell fourth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate and St. Lawrence; could win or lose against
     Dartmouth and Harvard.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Gets the top seed with two wins if Cornell gets no more than
     two points.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to fifth with two losses if Colgate does not get
     swept and Harvard wins twice.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate and Union; loses to St. Lawrence; could win
     or lose against Cornell and Harvard.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Union, at Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Would clinch third with three points.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes first with a sweep if Cornell gets no more than two
     points and Dartmouth does not win twice.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to sixth if they lose twice, Harvard gets at least
     three points against St. Lawrence and Clarkson, St. Lawrence does not
     lose to Dartmouth, and Union also beats Cornell.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, and Union; could win
     or lose against St. Lawrence.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep guarantees third place.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches first with two wins if Cornell gets no more than
     one point and Colgate does not sweep.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes sixth if they lose twice and Union sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and Union; loses to Cornell; could win or
     lose against Colgate and Harvard

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up fourth place with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Gets the top seed with a sweep if Cornell and Colgate both
     lose twice, and Dartmouth gets no more than one point.  (This, by the
     way, would make Harvard by far the worst #1 seed in ECAC history in
     terms of winning percentage -- 0.614)
     WORST CASE:  Drops to eighth if they lose twice, Union gets at least one
     point, Rensselaer sweeps, and Clarkson does not lose to Dartmouth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate; loses to Clarkson; could win or lose
     against Cornell, Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, Union, and Rensselaer.

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Colgate, Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points would guarantee sixth place.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish third with a sweep if Colgate also loses to
     Rensselaer, St. Lawrence loses twice, and Harvard does not beat
     Clarkson.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to eighth if they get swept, Rensselaer gets at least
     three points, and Clarkson gets at least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate and Rensselaer; loses to Dartmouth and St.
     Lawrence; could win or lose against Harvard and Clarkson.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Finishes seventh with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to fifth with a sweep if Harvard loses twice and
     Union gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to eighth if they lose twice and Clarkson does
     not.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson; loses to Union; could win or lose against
     Harvard.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched eighth and can do no better without
     help.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fifth with a sweep if Rensselaer does not win
     twice, Harvard does not beat St. Lawrence, and Union gets no more than
     two points.
     WORST CASE:  Eighth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard; loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose
     against Union.

Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Yale, at Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees ninth place with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Ninth.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to eleventh if they lose twice and Princeton gets at
     least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale; could win or lose against Princeton.

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Quinnipiac, Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches ninth with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Ninth.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eleventh if they lose twice.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac; could win or lose against Princeton.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Brown, at Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Would finish tenth by beating Yale and not losing to
     Brown.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to ninth with a sweep if Quinnipiac gets no more than
     two points.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to eleventh if they lose twice.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Quinnipiac and Yale.