After I put up the ECAC permutations last week, I was asked to do the same thing for the WCHA, so here we go.  Given that the WCHA tiebreakers are less sadistic -- I mean, more straightforward –- than the ECAC’s, the playoff possibilities end up having fewer twists and turns.

At any rate, one first-round playoff pairing is all set, as Denver has locked up the top seed and Michigan Tech will finish last, meaning the Pioneers will host the Huskies regardless of this weekend’s outcomes.  Here’s a breakdown of where the other eight teams could finish.  For each team, I’ve listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team’s last two games of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
    competition.  Generally, this involves a sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
    This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
    standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
    some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
    standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A “could win or
    lose” the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are more
    than those two teams tied.  

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the WCHA tiebreakers are:

1.  Head-to-head record in WCHA games (non-conference meetings, such as in
    tournaments, do not count).
2.  Most WCHA wins.
3.  Fewest goals allowed head-to-head (used only if the teams played a four-
    game series against each other).
4.  Goal differential in WCHA games.

Here goes:


Wisconsin:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Minnesota (Target Center), at Minnesota.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points would clinch second place.
     BEST CASE:  Second.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to fourth with two losses if Minnesota-Duluth sweeps
     and St. Cloud State gets at least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Minnesota-Duluth; could win or lose against St.
     Cloud State.

St. Cloud State:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Minnesota State, Minnesota State.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up third place with two points.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to second with a sweep if Wisconsin gets no more than
     two points.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish fifth if they get swept, North Dakota wins
     twice, and Minnesota-Duluth gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Minnesota-Duluth; loses to North Dakota; could win
     or lose against Wisconsin.

Minnesota-Duluth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Alaska-Anchorage, at Alaska-Anchorage.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Would guarantee fourth by getting three points.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes second with a sweep if Wisconsin loses twice and
     St. Cloud State gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  If they lose twice and North Dakota gets at least two
     points, the Bulldogs will drop to fifth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Wisconsin; loses to St. Cloud State and North
     Dakota.

North Dakota:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Michigan Tech, Michigan Tech.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched fifth and can do no better without
     help.
     BEST CASE:  Gets third place with a sweep if St. Cloud State loses twice
     and Minnesota-Duluth gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Fifth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Cloud, Minnesota-Duluth, and Colorado College.

Colorado College:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Denver, Denver.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Finishes sixth with a pair of wins.
     BEST CASE:  Sixth.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to seventh if Minnesota gets at least one more point
     than they do.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to North Dakota and Minnesota.

Minnesota:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Wisconsin (Target Center), Wisconsin.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than seventh without help.
     BEST CASE:  Would climb to sixth if they win twice and Colorado College
     does not.
     WORST CASE:  Seventh.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colorado College.

Alaska-Anchorage:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Minnesota-Duluth, Minnesota-Duluth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches eighth with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Eighth.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes ninth if Minnesota State gets at least one more
     point than they do.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Minnesota State.

Minnesota State:
     THIS WEEKEND:  St. Cloud State, at St. Cloud State.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has clinched ninth and can do no better without help.
     BEST CASE:  Gets the #8 seed with a sweep if Alaska-Anchorage does not
     win twice.
     WORST CASE:  Ninth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Alaska-Anchorage.

--
Bill Fenwick
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