Glad to see it's so straight forward. I at least understand the effect on my alma mater.

Eric Hornick Union '86



 Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since 1982. Visit my blog: forever1940.blogspot.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick



----- Original Message ----
From: Bill Fenwick <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Sent: Tue, February 23, 2010 5:15:11 PM
Subject: ECAC Permutations, or Making a Bit of Sense of It All

ECAC fans... are you looking at the standings going into the last weekend
of league play, and do you find yourself wondering just what has to happen
for your team to finish with its highest possible seed in the post-season
tournament?  Do you lie awake at night trying to figure out how the ECAC's
confusing and convoluted tie-breaking procedure can help or hinder your
team on its journey up the standings?

No?  Well, I'm going to go ahead and do this again anyway...

With Clarkson wrapping up the #12 spot in the league, the eleven remaining
teams will be jockeying for playoff seedings this weekend.  The top three
seeds will go to Yale, Cornell, and Union in some order, but there's the
usual potential for a horrific mess among the eight remaining teams.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?ecac.cgi

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than just those two teams tied.  For example, if Rensselaer and St.
     Lawrence were to finish tied after this weekend, St. Lawrence would win
     the tiebreaker based on head-to-head record; however, in a three-way tie
     involving those teams and Quinnipiac, St. Lawrence would be seeded below
     Rensselaer.


For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.


And so, without further ado, The Possibilities:

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two points would give the Bulldogs the top seed.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to third if they lose twice, Cornell and Union tie,
     and the Big Red and Dutchmen each win their other game.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell and Union.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Union, Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second with a win against Union, or if they tie
     that game, a win against Rensselaer.
     BEST CASE:  Takes first place with a sweep if Yale gets no more than one
     point.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish third if they lose to Union.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale; could win or lose against Union.

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A win over Cornell would give the Dutchmen second place.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes first with a sweep if Yale gets no more than one
     point.
     WORST CASE:  Ends up third if they lose to Cornell.
     TIEBREAKERS:  

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Rensselaer, Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep guarantees fourth place.
     BEST CASE:  Fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to seventh if they get swept, St. Lawrence gets at
     least one point, and Quinnipiac wins twice.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to St. Lawrence and Quinnipiac; could win or lose
     against Rensselaer.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up the #4 seed with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Would fall to sixth with two losses if St. Lawrence gets at
     least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac; could win or lose against Colgate and
     St. Lawrence.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Dartmouth, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fifth with a pair of wins.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to fourth with a sweep if either Colgate and
     Rensselaer tie OR the Colgate-Rensselaer winner does not win its other
     game.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eighth if they lose twice, Quinnipiac gets at
     least three points, and Harvard also beats Clarkson.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate; loses to Quinnipiac and Harvard; could win
     or lose against Rensselaer.

Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Brown, Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points would give the Bobcats seventh place.
     BEST CASE:  Would wrap up fifth with a sweep if Colgate loses twice and
     St. Lawrence gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to eleventh place with two losses if Harvard gets at
     least one point, Princeton beats Brown, and Dartmouth sweeps.  This
     would set up a three-or-more-way tie involving Quinnipiac, Brown,
     Dartmouth, and potentially Harvard and/or Princeton, with the tie-
     breakers putting Quinnipiac in eleventh.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate and St. Lawrence; loses to Rensselaer and
     Brown; could win or lose against Harvard, Princeton, and Dartmouth.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up eighth with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Gets sixth with a sweep if Quinnipiac gets no more than two
     points and St. Lawrence loses to Dartmouth.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to eleventh if they get swept, Dartmouth wins twice,
     and either Princeton and Brown tie OR the Princeton-Brown loser wins its
     other game.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence and Dartmouth; loses to Princeton;
     could win or lose against Quinnipiac and Brown.

Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Beating Princeton gives Brown ninth place.
     BEST CASE:  Would rise to seventh with two wins if Harvard gets no more
     than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eleventh if they lose twice and Dartmouth gets at
     least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac; could win or lose against Harvard,
     Princeton, and Dartmouth.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Yale, Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A win over Brown gives Princeton ninth place.
     BEST CASE:  Takes seventh place with a sweep if Quinnipiac gets no more
     than one point and Harvard does not win twice.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to eleventh if they get swept and Dartmouth gets at
     least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard and Dartmouth; could win or lose against
     Quinnipiac and Brown.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched eleventh place and can do no better
     without help.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish eighth if they win twice, Harvard gets swept,
     Brown beats Princeton and loses to Quinnipiac, and Princeton does not
     beat Yale.
     WORST CASE:  Eleventh.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Harvard and Princeton; could win or lose against
     Quinnipiac and Brown.



Bill Fenwick
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