> Date: 31 Mar 1992 17:11:00 -0600 (CST)
> From: "Patrick T. Berends" <[log in to unmask]>
> Subject: Probabilities
> To: Multiple recipients of list HOCKEY-L <[log in to unmask]>
> Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
>
> The recent discussion about probabilities in play-offs got me crunching
> numbers on my calculator.  Assuming each game is independent and the
> favorite's probability of winning is 70% and the underdog's is 30% the
> following probabilities can result after two games:
>
>          Favorite winning both games: 49.0%
>          Underdog winning both games:  9.0%
>                                Split: 42.0%
>
> Now, involving a third game, things get more difficult as we need to rely
> on the condition that the teams split the first two games, as this has to
> occur.  Keeping this in mind, here are the probabilities:
>
>          Favorite winning in two games:    49.0%
>          Favorite winning in three games:  29.4%
>          Underdog winning in two games:     9.0%
>          Underdog winning in three games:  12.6%
>
> or,
>
>          Favorite winning series: 78.4%
>          Underdog winning series: 21.6%
>
> As far as the NC_$$_ goes, you'd think they support a two out of three when
> there is that high a probability (42%) of a third game.  That probability
> should increase as the playoffs continue (duh).  Even if the underdog only
> has a 10% of winning, the probability of a third game is almost 1 in 5 (18%).
>
> If you want to go to 5 games:
>
>          Favorite winning in three games: 34.300%
>          Favorite winning in four games:  18.522%
>          Favorite winning in five games:  30.870%
>                          Favorite winning series:  83.692%
>          Underdog winning in three games:  2.700%
>          Underdog winning in four games:   5.670%
>          Underdog winning in five games:   7.938%
>                          Underdog winning series:  16.308%
>
> So this talk about lengthing series, in order to ensure the top teams
> advance, has some merit.
>
> Finally, I'd like to say thanks to the many postees on the list.  I have been
> a reader since last November, but this is my first post.  I live in a place
> that provides little pro hockey coverage and absolutely none on college
> hockey.  You've kept a displaced Maine fan very informed.  Again, thanks.
>
> Patrick T. Berends
> Dept. of Ag. Economics
> Kansas State University
 
 
So what's the probability of KSU beating KU in basketball?
or should I ask what the probability of UTEP beating KU is?
 
charlie shub  [log in to unmask]      -or-        (719) 593-3492
  or even  cdash@colospgs (BITNET)  if the above address won't work
 
PhD in CS from KU in 1974   GO JAYHAWKS!!!!!!!
 
charlie shub  [log in to unmask]      -or-        (719) 593-3492
  or even  cdash@colospgs (BITNET)  if the above address won't work