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Date: | Tue, 25 Mar 2003 22:34:12 -0600 |
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One of the advantages of the KRACH rating system is that it lets you
not only say whether one teams is better than another, but quantify
that difference, in terms of a probability that one or the other would
win a head-to-head game. I've gone through the NCAA tournament and
worked out the probability for each team of advancing to the regional
finals, Frozen Four[TM], championship game, or national title, given
their potential opponents. Here they are:
____O d d s o f w i n n i n g____
Seed ___Team___ KRACH 1 game 2 games 3 games 4 games
1W Minnesota 787.43 97.58% 59.19% 27.91% 14.40%
2W Ferris State 494.43 48.43% 19.35% 6.998% 2.826%
3W North Dakota 526.57 51.57% 21.37% 8.033% 3.363%
4W Mercyhurst 19.530 2.42% 0.08917% 0.002072% 0.0000566%
1M Colorado College 1105.1 95.14% 60.48% 37.79% 22.57%
2M Maine 698.83 55.60% 22.99% 11.83% 5.758%
3M Michigan 558.04 44.40% 16.13% 7.403% 3.202%
4M Wayne State 56.395 4.855% 0.3994% 0.03224% 0.002403%
1E Cornell 1022.7 68.03% 43.7% 26.49% 14.78%
2E Boston College 706.33 66.82% 31.28% 16.2% 7.576%
3E Ohio State 350.68 33.18% 10.24% 3.607% 1.106%
4E MSU-Mankato 480.58 31.97% 14.78% 6.281% 2.361%
1N New Hampshire 892.32 69.76% 43.34% 23.74% 12.46%
2N Boston University 664.66 64.43% 31.5% 15.01% 6.799%
3N Harvard 366.94 35.57% 12.47% 4.222% 1.335%
4N St. Cloud State 386.76 30.24% 12.69% 4.443% 1.454%
Credits: the KRACH ratings are based on the results of the entire
season from US College Hockey Online, and the program to calculate the
KRACH and the probabilities was written by me and run on USCHO's
server. Ken Butler first developed KRACH, which is an application to
college hockey of a method independently discovered by Zermelo and by
Bradley and Terry.
Lots of observations can be made, but the most interesting is probably
to compare Cornell's and Minnesota's odds of reaching each round.
Minnesota has a better shot to make the Frozen Four[TM] despite a
lower KRACH, because their odds of beating their weaker first-round
opponent are higher, but Cornell has a slightly better chance of
winning the whole tournament. Discuss.
John Whelan, Cornell '91
[log in to unmask]
http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/
Enjoy the latest Hockey Geek tools at slack.net/hockey
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