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| Date: | Wed, 18 Dec 2002 01:57:14 +0000 |
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There seem to be about five rating systems going around at the moment,
so I thought it would be interesting to see how (and whether) they agree
in their rankings of the teams.
I've looked at:
KRACH (calculated by me, or go digging at http://slack.net/hockey)
CHODR (http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/current.html)
RPI (http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2003/rpi.shtml)
HEAL (http://maine.edu/heal/heal.latest)
RHEAL ("iterated HEAL"; http://maine.edu/heal/rheal.latest)
First, a big table of what ranks who where. These are listed by the
median of the five ranks (I think the median makes a better "consensus"
because it won't be thrown off by one crazy ranking):
KRACH CHODR RPI HEAL RHEAL Median
Cornell 1 1 1 1 1 1
Maine 2 3 2 2 7 2
Colorado College 4 2 8 3 5 4
Boston College 5 4 3 4 4 4
Ferris State 8 5 9 6 2 6
North Dakota 3 17 4 7 6 6
New Hampshire 6 6 6 5 3 6
Ohio State 7 7 5 8 9 7
Michigan 10 9 14 14 10 10
Boston University 9 18 7 10 12 10
Minnesota 12 11 12 15 13 12
Harvard 11 14 11 12 19 12
St. Cloud State 14 13 10 13 8 13
Dartmouth 13 26 13 9 11 13
Miami 16 10 15 11 17 15
Notre Dame 17 16 16 17 15 16
Merrimack 20 29 17 18 16 18
Northern Michigan 22 15 24 16 18 18
Denver 18 8 22 19 23 19
Yale 19 21 18 25 31 21
Alaska-Fairbanks 21 24 20 24 20 21
MSU-Mankato 24 22 21 21 14 21
Massachusetts 15 23 19 22 24 22
Providence 23 20 29 23 21 23
Western Michigan 25 25 25 39 32 25
Mass.-Lowell 26 19 23 33 28 26
Nebraska-Omaha 27 31 27 32 27 27
Michigan State 29 27 28 29 26 28
Minnesota-Duluth 28 12 32 30 22 28
Northeastern 30 33 26 28 33 30
Brown 31 28 31 31 25 31
Clarkson 35 32 34 34 30 34
Michigan Tech 34 30 38 44 34 34
Wisconsin 32 34 30 43 39 34
Union 39 35 41 38 36 38
Rensselaer 36 36 43 41 38 38
Bowling Green 37 38 39 51 43 39
Findlay 46 39 37 26 47 39
Alaska-Anchorage 38 37 40 55 40 40
Bemidji State 40 46 42 27 29 40
Colgate 42 47 36 35 41 41
Quinnipiac 48 41 33 20 49 41
Vermont 33 45 35 49 42 42
St. Lawrence 43 40 54 47 37 43
Wayne State 41 43 48 46 35 43
Niagara 45 42 44 45 44 44
Alabama-Huntsville 44 44 46 40 45 44
Holy Cross 52 51 49 37 48 49
Air Force 50 50 47 42 50 50
Princeton 49 48 50 60 54 50
Sacred Heart 51 52 52 36 46 51
Lake Superior 47 53 51 57 56 53
Canisius 53 57 45 50 53 53
Mercyhurst 54 49 53 54 57 54
Connecticut 56 55 56 48 51 55
American Int'l 55 59 55 52 52 55
Bentley 57 56 57 53 55 56
Army 58 54 58 56 58 58
Iona 59 58 59 59 59 59
Fairfield 60 60 60 58 60 60
Where are the big discrepancies? One idea is to see which rankings
differ wildly from their median. Veterans of ratings discussions on
Hockey-L will not be surprised by the team on the top of the next list
(though at least it's not RPI to blame this time :-) ):
Team System Rank Median Diff
Quinnipiac HEAL 20 41 21
Minnesota-Duluth CHODR 12 28 16
Sacred Heart HEAL 36 51 15
Alaska-Anchorage HEAL 55 40 15
Western Michigan HEAL 39 25 14
Dartmouth CHODR 26 13 13
Bemidji State HEAL 27 40 13
Findlay HEAL 26 39 13
Bowling Green HEAL 51 39 12
Holy Cross HEAL 37 49 12
Merrimack CHODR 29 18 11
St. Lawrence RPI 54 43 11
Bemidji State RHEAL 29 40 11
Denver CHODR 8 19 11
North Dakota CHODR 17 6 11
Princeton HEAL 60 50 10
Michigan Tech HEAL 44 34 10
Yale RHEAL 31 21 10
Wisconsin HEAL 43 34 9
Vermont KRACH 33 42 9
Boston University CHODR 18 10 8
Wayne State RHEAL 35 43 8
Air Force HEAL 42 50 8
Findlay RHEAL 47 39 8
Quinnipiac RHEAL 49 41 8
Quinnipiac RPI 33 41 8
Canisius RPI 45 53 8
Findlay KRACH 46 39 7
Vermont RPI 35 42 7
Western Michigan RHEAL 32 25 7
It's mainly HEAL and CHODR that differ greatly from the consensus; it
looks as if HEAL likes the MAAC and dislikes the Western conference,
while CHODR is just different... interestingly, RPI agrees pretty well
with the consensus.
In the final list, "predicted" is really the wrong word, since we're
looking at the past. I've taken all the games between
tournament-eligible teams and thrown out the ties, leaving 411 games.
Then, for each rating system, I've counted up how many times the
higher-rated team won. The bigger the better here -- after all, you'd
want a rating system to have some consistency with the game results!
I've separated things out by conference:
Observed results "predicted" by system and conference
n KRACH CHODR RPI HEAL RHEAL
cc 66 51 53 51 53 53
ch 13 9 6 7 8 8
ec 43 35 33 34 32 30
he 34 28 24 27 28 28
ma 46 37 30 37 31 33
nc 166 140 130 134 127 136
wc 43 36 33 36 36 36
all 411 336 309 326 315 324
Any half-decent rating system should do a good job within a conference,
because there are so many conference games (perhaps not yet, but by the
end of the season). The real test is with the non-conference games. RPI
is actually doing quite well here; also, RHEAL's improvement over HEAL
is entirely down to the non-conference games.
(It's perhaps unfair to include CHODR here because this is not what it
does. CHODR's aim is to predict goalscoring, which it does as accurately
as possible.)
Anyhow, a little late-night food for thought.
Cheers,
Ken.
--
Ken Butler
At home in Canterbury, England
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