I mentioned this to Charlie, but I think it is worth saying here too to
everyone (and I will add a little more also).
 
The RPI is not meant to be looked at midway through the season.  It has one
sole purpose: it is to be used in selecting the teams for the NCAA
tournament after all the games are played.  After ALL games are played.  It
is not intended to be used at a random point in the season to tell us
anything about the teams.
 
The reason for the posting of the RPI in the past by Erik, as I see it, is
so that people can follow along and see how things change as games are
played.  It is not meant to be used alongside the polls or other ratings to
give us any insight on the teams.  Rather, it is posted so that we can get
an insight on the selection process.
 
Given that, I think it should be noted that at this early point in the
season, the strange effect of CC beating AF and dropping is magnified by
the small number of games that have been played (relative to the number
that will be played throughout the entire season).  A better analysis would
be to wait until the end of the season and run the RPI twice: once with all
games, and again without the CC-AF game.  I believe that the effect of that
game will be minor if any at that point.
 
Perhaps now we can see why the NCAA Selection Committee does not wish to
release the RPI during the season.  We can also see why Erik has waited
until a point significantly into the season to post his version of the
rating.
 
But I do think it is a good question to raise, that a team can drop by
winning a game against a weak team.  It doesn't make sense if you believe a
team should never drop when it wins.  It may make sense if you believe that
strength of schedule should be a component in the rating.  People will have
to form their own opinions on this.
 
On the scheduling of weaker teams that may hurt your RPI...this is the
$64,000 question.  Nonconference scheduling is a tricky thing.  Some teams
cannot schedule the top teams that others can.  And even some good teams
that can schedule whomever they wish will still choose to schedule weaker
teams in an attempt to help those teams build their programs.  This has
most often been an issue with the Independents - more of an issue when
there were more Independents around, but it is still an issue.  Imagine
where Air Force would be if established teams refused to play them...and
where the Alaskas would be if the same happened when they were
Independents.
 
Sean Pickett's point about all conferences having their share of weaker
teams is a good one.  When all is said and done, everyone will have had
several games against teams not ranked highly in the RPI.
 
I believe the analysis I suggested would be a good one.  Perhaps I will
take a look at past seasons if I get a chance, but I do not know that I
will have the time.  Anyone with a program that runs the RPI can easily
obtain composite schedules from this and past seasons from the HOCKEY-L
archives and use them.  Send to [log in to unmask] the command
 
  get hockey-l filelist
 
to get a listing of all files available from the archives, including DivI
composites back through 1986-87.  The ones within the last 5-6 years would
be the best ones to use, especially last year since the makeup of DivI was
the same as it is this year.
 
---                                                                   ---
Mike Machnik                   [log in to unmask]            *HMM* 11/13/93
>> Co-owner of the College Hockey Lists at University of Maine System  <<
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