CHODR - The College Hockey Offensive / Defensive Ratings
                      (Based on games through 3/28/93)
 
     Last                    Division I     Offense         Defense    Overall
Rank Week Team                 Record     Rating  Rank   Rating  Rank   Rating
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1    1  Maine               38  1  2     6.140    1     2.368    1     3.773
  2    2  Michigan            29  6  2     5.865    2     2.620    2     3.245
  3    3  Lake Superior       28  7  5     4.705    5     2.853    3     1.852
  4    4  Boston University   29  8  2     4.750    4     2.959    5     1.791
  5    7  Minnesota-Duluth    27 11  2     5.021    3     3.525   12     1.496
  6    5  Clarkson            20 10  5     4.387    8     2.895    4     1.492
  7    6  Miami               27  9  5     4.511    6     3.029    6     1.482
  8    9  Wisconsin           24 15  3     4.479    7     3.233    8     1.246
  9    8  Harvard             22  6  3     4.206   12     3.077    7     1.128
 10   11  Michigan Tech       17 15  5     4.168   14     3.410   11     0.759
 11   10  Michigan State      22 14  2     3.959   23     3.294    9     0.665
 12   12  Northern Michigan   21 18  4     4.265   10     3.614   16     0.652
 13   13  RPI                 19 11  3     3.951   24     3.403   10     0.548
 14   17  Minnesota           22 12  8     3.998   20     3.569   13     0.429
 15   14  New Hampshire       18 17  3     4.042   18     3.637   17     0.405
 16   15  UMass-Lowell        20 17  2     4.179   13     3.794   19     0.386
 17   19  St Cloud            14 18  2     3.860   26     3.606   15     0.254
 18   16  Brown               16 12  3     4.372    9     4.119   25     0.253
 19   18  St Lawrence         17 12  3     4.074   17     3.890   21     0.184
 20   20  Providence          16 16  4     4.013   19     3.926   23     0.087
 21   21  Ferris State        18 16  4     3.691   30     3.731   18    -0.040
 22   23  Alaska-Fairbanks    10 11  2     4.244   11     4.351   29    -0.106
 23   22  Western Michigan    20 16  2     3.780   27     3.901   22    -0.121
 24   24  Bowling Green       18 21  1     4.103   16     4.246   27    -0.143
 25   25  Yale                15 12  4     3.986   22     4.214   26    -0.227
 26   26  Denver              19 17  2     3.775   28     4.064   24    -0.289
 27   27  North Dakota        12 25  1     3.774   29     4.333   28    -0.559
 28   28  Kent                12 21  3     3.998   21     4.675   34    -0.678
 29   29  Vermont             11 16  3     2.789   38     3.591   14    -0.802
 30   30  Northeastern        10 24  1     4.114   15     5.069   40    -0.956
 31   31  Illinois-Chicago     9 25  2     3.263   35     4.408   30    -1.145
 32   32  Colgate             11 18  2     3.538   32     4.727   37    -1.189
 33   34  Boston College       9 24  5     3.345   34     4.542   32    -1.197
 34   33  Dartmouth           11 16  0     3.447   33     4.679   35    -1.232
 35   35  Colorado College     8 28  0     3.864   25     5.180   41    -1.316
 36   37  Alaska-Anchorage     9 11  3     2.502   41     3.888   20    -1.386
 37   36  Princeton            8 17  3     3.052   36     4.496   31    -1.445
 38   38  Merrimack           12 20  2     3.604   31     5.055   39    -1.450
 39   39  Notre Dame           6 27  2     2.955   37     4.704   36    -1.749
 40   40  Cornell              6 19  1     2.727   40     4.615   33    -1.888
 41   42  Ohio State           4 30  2     2.781   39     5.685   42    -2.904
 42   41  Union                3 22  0     2.101   44     5.009   38    -2.908
 43   43  Army                 2  5  0     2.344   42     5.769   44    -3.424
 44   44  Air Force            4 17  1     2.150   43     5.762   43    -3.612
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Team:                              3.943          3.943          0.000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Ice Advantage = +/- 0.375 Goals Per Game.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Based on 750 Division I games.
 
CHODR went 1-3 on Friday but rebounded Saturday as it picked the correct
final four to finish 5-3 on the week.  The four remaining teams are, by
a considerable margin, the top four teams in the rankings.
 
And now the final projections of the season:
 
Semifinals - Thursday, April 1
 
#1E MAINE               4.78 (57.3%) vs #2W Michigan            4.26 (42.7%)
#1W LAKE SUPERIOR       3.69 (51.0%) vs #2E Boston University   3.63 (49.0%)
 
Championship - Saturday, April 3
 
#1E MAINE               5.02 (76.2%) vs #1W Lake Superior       3.10 (23.8%)
#1E MAINE               5.12 (76.6%) vs #2E Boston University   3.14 (23.4%)
#2W MICHIGAN            4.74 (69.7%) vs #1W Lake Superior       3.35 (30.3%)
#2W MICHIGAN            4.85 (70.3%) vs #1E Boston University   3.39 (29.7%)
 
 
Which gives us the following overall probabilities:
 
                            Finals    Champions
-----------------------------------------------
#1E Maine                    57.3%      43.7%
#2W Michigan                 42.7%      29.9%
-----------------------------------------------
#1W Lake Superior            51.0%      12.8%
#2E Boston University        49.0%      13.6%
-----------------------------------------------
 
There is a 57.3% chance of a Hockey East team winning it all, and
a 42.7% chance of a CCHA team winning it all.
 
 
Timothy J. Danehy                           [log in to unmask]
Robin H. Lock                                  [log in to unmask]