Friday was a good night for the WCHA (4-0) but a bad night for the
ECAC (0-3) and CHODR (1-3).  Incidentally, until Friday's games there
had not been a single ECAC-WCHA mathcup all season, now there are
three.
 
Quickly, some updated projections on Saturday's games:
 
Saturday, March 27:
 
Eastern Regional - Worcester, Massachusetts
 
#1E MAINE               5.69 (89.1%) vs #5W Minnesota           2.42 (10.9%)
#2E BOSTON UNIVERSITY   4.39 (64.9%) vs #6W Northern Michigan   3.38 (35.1%)
 
Western Regional - Detroit, Michigan
 
#1W LAKE SUPERIOR       4.26 (54.6%) vs #4W Minnesota-Duluth    3.94 (45.4%)
#2W MICHIGAN            5.22 (77.7%) vs #6E Wisconsin           3.13 (22.3%)
 
 
And the updated predictions on the whole tournament, showing the
change in the odds since the seeds were first announced.
 
 
                             Semi-
                            Finals     Finals    Champions
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#1E Maine                    89.1%      55.0%      42.9%    (+2.6%)
#5W Minnesota                10.9%       2.2%       0.7%    (+0.5%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#2W Michigan                 77.7%      37.8%      27.6%    (-0.2%)
#6E Wisconsin                22.3%       5.0%       2.2%    (+1.4%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#1W Lake Superior            54.6%      31.2%       9.1%    (-1.4%)
#4W Minnesota-Duluth         45.4%      23.7%       6.3%    (+3.0%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#2E Boston University        64.9%      32.5%       9.0%    (-0.3%)
#6W Northern Michigan        35.1%      12.5%       2.2%    (+1.4%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
The odds for the #4-6 seeds are all greater because they have
advanced to the semis.  Maine's odds are greater because Minnesota
ranks much lower in CHODR than Clarkson.  The odds on the other #1-2
seeds are all less because Maine's odds are so much greater.  LSSU's
odds are so much less because Duluth is a stronger opponent than
Brown (and was the only favorite to win).  By leagues now the chances
at the title are:
 
   Hockey East:   51.9%   (2 teams)
   CCHA:          36.7%   (2 teams)
   WCHA:          11.4%   (4 teams)
 
Even with half of the remaining field, the WCHA has only a slim
chance at the title, mostly due to heavy favorites Maine and
Michigan, although BU and LSSU are favored to reach the final in the
other bracket.
 
 
Timothy J. Danehy                           [log in to unmask]
Robin H. Lock                                  [log in to unmask]