CHODR - The College Hockey Offensive / Defensive Ratings
(Based on games through 3/21/93)
Last Division I Offense Defense Overall
Rank Week Team Record Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating
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* 1 1 Maine 37 1 2 6.151 1 2.364 1 3.786
* 2 2 Michigan 28 6 2 5.948 2 2.605 2 3.343
* 3 5 Lake Superior 27 7 5 4.741 5 2.849 3 1.893
* 4 3 Boston University 28 8 2 4.775 4 3.008 5 1.767
* 5 6 Clarkson 20 9 5 4.504 7 2.903 4 1.601
* 6 4 Miami 27 8 5 4.602 6 3.026 6 1.577
* 7 7 Minnesota-Duluth 26 10 2 4.964 3 3.577 13 1.386
* 8 8 Harvard 22 5 3 4.298 11 3.098 7 1.200
* 9 9 Wisconsin 23 14 3 4.473 8 3.377 10 1.096
10 10 Michigan State 22 14 2 3.981 23 3.275 8 0.706
11 11 Michigan Tech 17 15 5 4.129 14 3.434 11 0.695
*12 13 Northern Michigan 20 17 4 4.322 10 3.700 17 0.622
13 12 RPI 19 11 3 3.976 24 3.376 9 0.600
14 14 New Hampshire 18 17 3 4.056 18 3.630 14 0.425
15 15 UMass-Lowell 20 17 2 4.192 13 3.787 19 0.405
*16 16 Brown 16 11 3 4.427 9 4.032 24 0.395
*17 17 Minnesota 21 11 8 4.001 22 3.660 16 0.341
18 18 St Lawrence 17 12 3 4.101 17 3.862 20 0.239
19 19 St Cloud 14 18 2 3.819 25 3.636 15 0.183
20 20 Providence 16 16 4 4.029 19 3.919 23 0.110
21 23 Ferris State 18 16 4 3.713 30 3.711 18 0.002
22 22 Western Michigan 20 16 2 3.804 27 3.882 21 -0.078
23 24 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 11 2 4.250 12 4.344 28 -0.093
24 21 Bowling Green 18 21 1 4.126 15 4.229 27 -0.103
25 25 Yale 15 12 4 4.018 21 4.190 26 -0.172
26 26 Denver 19 17 2 3.735 28 4.088 25 -0.352
27 27 North Dakota 12 25 1 3.735 29 4.359 29 -0.623
28 28 Kent 12 21 3 4.023 20 4.655 35 -0.632
29 29 Vermont 11 16 3 2.818 38 3.568 12 -0.751
30 30 Northeastern 10 24 1 4.125 16 5.061 40 -0.936
31 31 Illinois-Chicago 9 25 2 3.285 35 4.387 30 -1.102
32 32 Colgate 11 18 2 3.567 32 4.702 37 -1.135
33 34 Dartmouth 11 16 0 3.475 33 4.654 34 -1.179
34 33 Boston College 9 24 5 3.349 34 4.533 32 -1.185
35 35 Colorado College 8 28 0 3.819 25 5.206 41 -1.387
36 36 Princeton 8 17 3 3.077 36 4.465 31 -1.388
37 37 Alaska-Anchorage 9 11 3 2.489 41 3.905 22 -1.416
38 38 Merrimack 12 20 2 3.617 31 5.051 39 -1.434
39 39 Notre Dame 6 27 2 2.979 37 4.680 36 -1.701
40 40 Cornell 6 19 1 2.757 40 4.589 33 -1.832
41 42 Union 3 22 0 2.131 44 4.983 38 -2.852
42 41 Ohio State 4 30 2 2.805 39 5.661 42 -2.856
43 43 Army 2 5 0 2.348 42 5.771 44 -3.423
44 44 Air Force 4 17 1 2.164 43 5.766 43 -3.601
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Average Team: 3.954 3.954 0.000
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Home Ice Advantage = +/- 0.375 Goals Per Game.
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Based on 742 Division I games. * - Seeded in NC$$ Tournament.
Notes for 3/21/93:
Well, if you want to gain a few spots in the ratings, especially at the
top where spots are hard to come by, just ask #1W Lake Superior how it's
done. The Lakers will tell you to play three games, and outscore your
highly ranked opposition (#2 Michigan, #6 Miami, and #24 BGSU) 15 goals
to 4. The Lakers gain two spots and end up #3 this week. Among the
teams in the NC$$ tournament, Miami is the big loser dropping two spots
to #6. Bowling Green dropped 3 spots, but perhaps the biggest loser is
RPI which fell only one spot, but ended up at unlucky #13 - out of the
NC$$ tournament.
Of the twelve tournment teams, nine of them comprise the top nine in
CHODR. The remaining three: Brown, Minnesota, and Northern Michigan are
teams that have played very well at the end of the season and found
unexpected success in the league tournaments (they were all in their
respective finals).
We all know there was some upsets in the league tournaments this past
weekend, but CHODR still did a pretty good job. In the ECAC, the system
was 3-1 missing only the Brown victory over Harvard. In Hockey East,
the prediction for the UNH vs Lowell consolation was 3.90 to 3.83.
Regulation ended in a 4-4 tie, and although Lowell ended up winning in
OT, we'll give ourselves a win for a 4-0 sweep in Hockey East. In the
CCHA, we missed the FSU over MSU and LSSU over Michigan games. Miami
was originally favored to win a possible final over LSSU by the slimmest
of margins - 0.02 goals, but the results of the first two nights gave
Lake Superior the edge going into the championship, so we'll call it 3-2
in the CCHA. Lastly in the WCHA we went a miserabel 1-4 in picking the
winners but the predictions were very close in all cases. None of the
underdogs that won had less than a 36.8% chance of winning so the upsets
weren't shockers. All in all, we end up 11-7 on the weekend, which
isn't too bad at tourney time - when anything can happen and usually
does.
And now on to some new business - the NC$$ tournament. For now we will
provide the predictions for next weekend's games only, since there are
too many possible matchups for the Phinal Phour (9 possible matchups for
each semifinal, 36 possible matchups in the final). We do however, have
those numbers precomputed and have used them to provide overall odds on
each team winning the tournament. First, however, predictions and
probabilities for the regionals.
Eastern Regional - Worcester, Massachusetts
Friday, March 26:
#3E HARVARD 4.01 (58.8%) vs #6W Northern Michigan 3.43 (41.2%)
#4E CLARKSON 4.18 (69.2%) vs #5W Minnesota 2.92 (30.8%)
Saturday, March 27:
#1E MAINE 5.07 (79.4%) vs #4E Clarkson 2.88 (20.6%)
#1E MAINE 5.82 (90.2%) vs #5W Minnesota 2.38 ( 9.8%)
#2E BOSTON UNIVERSITY 3.89 (58.8%) vs #3E Harvard 3.32 (41.2%)
#2E BOSTON UNIVERSITY 4.49 (66.6%) vs #6W Northern Michigan 3.34 (33.4%)
Western Regional - Detroit, Michigan
Friday, March 26:
#3W MIAMI 3.99 (57.3%) vs #6E Wisconsin 3.51 (42.7%)
#4W MINNESOTA-DULUTH 5.01 (63.5%) vs #5E Brown 4.02 (36.5%)
Saturday, March 27:
#1W LAKE SUPERIOR 4.33 (57.4%) vs #4W Minnesota-Duluth 3.82 (42.6%)
#1W LAKE SUPERIOR 4.79 (71.0%) vs #5E Brown 3.29 (29.0%)
#2W MICHIGAN 4.99 (74.2%) vs #3W Miami 3.22 (25.8%)
#2W MICHIGAN 5.34 (79.3%) vs #6E Wisconsin 3.09 (20.7%)
And now the probabilities for the entire tournament. Remember that the
bracket is constructed so that 1E meets 2W and 1W meets 2W in the semi-
finals, so the #1 seeds cannot meet until the final. Each group of
three teams listed below represents one bracket of the regionals, out of
which one team will advance to the semifinals in Milwaukee. The top and
bottom brackets are played in the East Regionals (Worcester), and the
middle two brackets are played in the West Regionals (Detroit). The
probabilities are based on the the likelihood of defeating each possible
opponent in each round, weighted by the likelihood of facing each
possible opponent. Again, the probabilities indicate the chances of the
team to make it to whatever is listed at the top, i.e. Maine has an
82.7% chance of reaching the semis, a 51.3% chance of reaching the
finals, and a 40.3% chance to win the title.
Quarter- Semi-
Finals Finals Finals Champions
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#1E Maine BYE 82.7% 51.3% 40.3%
#4E Clarkson 69.2% 14.2% 4.6% 2.3%
#5W Minnesota 30.8% 3.0% 0.6% 0.2%
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#2W Michigan BYE 76.4% 37.8% 27.8%
#3W Miami 57.3% 14.8% 3.9% 1.9%
#6E Wisconsin 42.7% 8.8% 1.9% 0.8%
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#1W Lake Superior BYE 62.4% 35.2% 10.5%
#4W Minnesota-Duluth 63.5% 27.1% 13.2% 3.3%
#5E Brown 36.5% 10.6% 3.7% 0.6%
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#2E Boston University BYE 62.0% 32.4% 9.3%
#3E Harvard 58.8% 24.2% 10.6% 2.3%
#6W Northern Michigan 41.2% 13.7% 4.9% 0.8%
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The six teams in the top bracket which includes CHODR heavyweights Maine
and Michigan have a combined 73.3% chance of winning the title, most of
that due to those two teams. Of teams seeded #3 or lower, Minnesota-
Duluth has the best shot at only 3.3%. By leagues the chances at the
title are as follows:
ECAC: 5.2% (3 teams)
Hockey East: 49.6% (2 teams)
CCHA: 40.2% (3 teams)
WCHA: 5.1% (4 teams)
And geographically, the East has a 54.8% chance with 5 teams while the
West has a 45.2% chance with 7 teams.
Timothy J. Danehy [log in to unmask]
Robin H. Lock [log in to unmask]
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