CHODR - The College Hockey Offensive / Defensive Ratings
(Based on games through 3/15/93)
Last Division I Offense Defense Overall
Rank Week Team Record Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating
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1 1 Maine 35 1 2 6.140 1 2.306 1 3.835
2 2 Michigan 28 5 2 6.008 2 2.549 2 3.459
3 3 Boston University 27 7 2 4.906 4 3.085 6 1.821
4 4 Miami 26 7 5 4.735 5 3.034 5 1.701
5 5 Lake Superior 24 7 5 4.694 6 3.013 4 1.681
6 6 Clarkson 18 9 5 4.543 8 2.964 3 1.580
7 7 Minnesota-Duluth 25 9 2 4.980 3 3.487 12 1.493
8 9 Harvard 21 4 3 4.346 10 3.105 7 1.242
9 8 Wisconsin 23 12 3 4.523 9 3.336 10 1.187
10 11 Michigan State 22 13 2 4.036 20 3.266 9 0.770
11 12 Michigan Tech 17 14 5 4.174 14 3.420 11 0.754
12 10 RPI 19 9 3 3.985 24 3.256 8 0.729
13 13 Northern Michigan 18 16 4 4.320 11 3.743 18 0.577
14 15 New Hampshire 18 15 3 4.160 15 3.686 15 0.474
15 14 UMass-Lowell 19 16 2 4.142 17 3.736 17 0.407
16 16 Brown 15 10 3 4.550 7 4.197 27 0.353
17 17 Minnesota 19 11 8 4.032 21 3.731 16 0.301
18 18 St Lawrence 17 12 3 4.108 18 3.853 20 0.256
19 19 St Cloud 14 18 2 3.839 26 3.626 14 0.214
20 21 Providence 16 16 4 4.049 19 3.910 23 0.139
21 23 Bowling Green 18 20 1 4.188 13 4.173 25 0.014
22 22 Western Michigan 20 16 2 3.819 27 3.869 21 -0.050
23 26 Ferris State 17 15 4 3.725 30 3.779 19 -0.054
24 20 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 11 2 4.263 12 4.326 28 -0.063
25 24 Yale 15 12 4 4.025 23 4.174 26 -0.150
26 25 Denver 19 17 2 3.753 28 4.080 24 -0.327
27 28 North Dakota 12 25 1 3.753 29 4.347 29 -0.594
28 29 Kent 12 21 3 4.032 22 4.639 35 -0.607
29 27 Vermont 11 16 3 2.829 38 3.557 13 -0.728
30 30 Northeastern 10 24 1 4.144 16 5.051 40 -0.907
31 31 Illinois-Chicago 9 25 2 3.284 35 4.377 30 -1.093
32 38 Colgate 11 18 2 3.589 32 4.694 37 -1.105
33 32 Boston College 9 24 5 3.358 34 4.510 32 -1.152
34 33 Dartmouth 11 16 0 3.482 33 4.637 34 -1.155
35 36 Colorado College 8 28 0 3.840 25 5.196 41 -1.355
36 37 Princeton 8 17 3 3.081 36 4.452 31 -1.371
37 35 Alaska-Anchorage 9 11 3 2.518 41 3.909 22 -1.391
38 34 Merrimack 12 20 2 3.633 31 5.033 39 -1.401
39 39 Notre Dame 6 27 2 2.991 37 4.663 36 -1.672
40 40 Cornell 6 19 1 2.771 40 4.578 33 -1.807
41 42 Ohio State 4 30 2 2.815 39 5.644 42 -2.828
42 41 Union 3 22 0 2.145 44 4.976 38 -2.831
43 43 Army 2 5 0 2.358 42 5.754 43 -3.396
44 44 Air Force 4 17 1 2.186 43 5.762 44 -3.576
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Average Team: 3.968 3.968 0.000
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Home Ice Advantage = +/- 0.375 Goals Per Game.
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Based on 724 Division I games.
Notes for 3/15/93:
Colgate may have lost the series to the RPI Engineers, but as a
consolation prize they end up being the biggest winner of the week in the
overall ratings, gaining six spots on their way to #32. Merrimack and
Alaska-Fairbanks each lost four spots to share losers honors.
The top seven spots remain the same going into the league championship
tournaments, but Michigan keeps chipping away at Maine's lead and is now
less than 0.4 goals behind, but a solid 1.6 goals ahead of third-place
Boston University.
Now to recap how the system did in predicting the scores for the past
week. CHODR favored the home team in every game so the only games it
missed were the upsets, of which there were five (both ECAC Tuesday games,
both BGSU-WMU games, and Colgate's Friday win at RPI). Two ties at half a
game each bring our miss total to 6 games out of 41.
To get a more accurate estimate of how we did, we'll take a look at how
close we came to the actual scores. In the 41 games played last week,
there was a total of 82 different scores (two teams per game). If we took
the expected score for each team and rounded to the nearest integer, the
actual score exactly matched the expected value 26 times (32%). We were
off by one goal in 25 more cases (30%) and off by just two in 19 (23%).
That leaves only 12 cases (15%) in which the system was off by three or
more goals.
And now the predictions for the championship tournaments. Since
everything is just one game now, we don't have all the probabilities that
were relevant to the home series, but we still have the probabilities for
each team winning in each game, which are included next to the projected
score for each team. All games (with the possible exception of some of
the consolation games - I'm not sure of the format in each league) are now
played with sudden death overtime until someone wins. This lets us
compute the overall probability of each team winning the game, which also
lets us compute the probability of the possible matchups in the semis and
finals, which (you guessed it) lets us compute the probability of each
team winning the championship. This is explained further below. If the
consolation games are played with limited overtime, there will be a chance
of a tie and each teams probability of winning will be less than that
shown. Note that the #1 seeds are not always the favorites to win the
tournaments.
ECAC:
Semifinals - Friday, March 19:
#1 HARVARD 4.54 (62.8%) vs #4 Brown 3.66 (37.2%)
#2 RPI 2.95 (36.4%) vs #3 CLARKSON 3.80 (63.6%)
Championship/Consolation - Saturday, March 20:
#1 HARVARD 3.60 (58.3%) vs #2 RPI 3.09 (41.7%)
#1 Harvard 3.31 (44.6%) vs #3 CLARKSON 3.65 (55.4%)
#2 RPI 4.18 (55.5%) vs #4 Brown 3.81 (44.5%)
#3 CLARKSON 4.74 (67.3%) vs #4 Brown 3.51 (32.7%)
And the probabilities for the whole tournament:
ECAC Tournament Finals Champions
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#1 Harvard 62.8% 31.1%
#4 Brown 37.2% 13.8%
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#2 RPI 36.4% 17.0%
#3 Clarkson 63.6% 38.0%
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The percentages in the column marked Finals are the chances for each team
to make it to the finals - these are just the chances of winning on
Friday. For the overall chance of winning the championship, given in the
column marked champions, we must also take into account the probabilities
of who the other team will be. For instance, Clarkson's probability of
winnig the championship is the probability of the being in the final times
the sum of two products: Clarkson's chances of beating Brown times the
chance of Brown being in the final and Clarkson's chances of beating
Harvard times the chance of Harvard being in the final. Thus, Clarkson's
overall chances are given by:
0.636 ( ( 0.628 * 0.554 ) + ( 0.372 * 0.673 ) ) = 0.380
This same method is used in the other leagues, with more teams in the CCHA
and WCHA which have six and five teams respectively.
Hockey East:
Semifinals - Friday, March 19:
#1 MAINE 5.88 (89.9%) vs #4 UMass-Lowell 2.45 (10.1%)
#2 BOSTON UNIVERSITY 4.59 (69.4%) vs #3 New Hampshire 3.25 (30.6%)
Championship/Consolation - Saturday, March 20:
#1 MAINE 5.23 (76.7%) vs #2 Boston University 3.21 (23.3%)
#1 MAINE 5.83 (89.4%) vs #3 New Hampshire 2.47 (10.6%)
#2 BOSTON UNIVERSITY 4.64 (70.2%) vs #4 UMass-Lowell 3.23 (29.8%)
#3 NEW HAMPSHIRE 3.90 (51.0%) vs #4 UMass-Lowell 3.83 (49.0%)
Hockey East Tournament Finals Champions
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#1 Maine 89.9% 72.4%
#4 UMass-Lowell 10.1% 3.6%
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#2 Boston University 69.4% 19.5%
#3 New Hampshire 30.6% 4.5%
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CCHA:
Quarterfinals - Friday, March 19:
#1 Miami BYE
#2 Michigan BYE
#3 LAKE SUPERIOR 4.87 (73.2%) vs #6 Bowling Green 3.20 (26.8%)
#4 MICHIGAN STATE 3.82 (63.1%) vs #5 Ferris State 2.99 (36.9%)
Semifinals - Saturday, March 20:
#1 MIAMI 4.00 (64.4%) vs #4 Michigan State 3.07 (35.6%)
#1 MIAMI 4.51 (75.5%) vs #5 Ferris State 2.76 (24.5%)
#2 MICHIGAN 5.02 (74.3%) vs #3 Lake Superior 3.24 (25.7%)
#2 MICHIGAN 6.18 (89.0%) vs #6 Bowling Green 2.74 (11.0%)
Championship - Sunday, March 21: (No Consolation)
#1 Miami 3.29 (26.1%) vs #2 MICHIGAN 5.04 (73.9%)
#1 MIAMI 3.75 (50.3%) vs #3 Lake Superior 3.73 (49.7%)
#1 MIAMI 4.91 (73.3%) vs #6 Bowling Green 3.22 (26.7%)
#2 MICHIGAN 5.27 (84.7%) vs #4 Michigan State 2.59 (15.3%)
#2 MICHIGAN 5.79 (90.9%) vs #5 Ferris State 2.27 ( 9.1%)
#3 LAKE SUPERIOR 3.96 (64.2%) vs #4 Michigan State 3.05 (35.8%)
#3 LAKE SUPERIOR 4.47 (75.4%) vs #5 Ferris State 2.74 (24.6%)
#4 MICHIGAN STATE 4.21 (61.3%) vs #6 Bowling Green 3.45 (38.7%)
#5 Ferris State 3.90 (49.0%) vs #6 BOWLING GREEN 3.97 (51.0%)
CCHA Tournament Semifinals Finals Champions
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#1 Miami BYE 68.5% 22.0%
#4 Michigan State 63.1% 22.5% 4.6%
#5 Ferris State 36.9% 9.0% 1.2%
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#2 Michigan BYE 78.2% 60.9%
#3 Lake Superior 73.2% 18.8% 10.4%
#6 Bowling Green 26.8% 3.0% 0.9%
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WCHA:
Quarterfinal - Thursday, March 18:
#4 MICHIGAN TECH 3.92 (52.7%) vs #5 Northern Michigan 3.74 (47.3%)
Semifinals - Friday, March 19:
#1 MINNESOTA-DULUTH 4.40 (60.8%) vs #4 Michigan Tech 3.66 (39.2%)
#1 MINNESOTA-DULUTH 4.72 (62.9%) vs #5 Northern Michigan 3.81 (37.1%)
#2 WISCONSIN 4.26 (63.2%) vs #3 Minnesota 3.37 (36.8%)
Championship/Consolation - Saturday, March 20:
#1 MINNESOTA-DULUTH 4.32 (54.4%) vs #2 Wisconsin 4.01 (45.6%)
#1 MINNESOTA-DULUTH 4.71 (66.9%) vs #3 Minnesota 3.52 (33.1%)
#2 WISCONSIN 3.94 (56.6%) vs #4 Michigan Tech 3.51 (43.4%)
#2 WISCONSIN 4.27 (59.0%) vs #5 Northern Michigan 3.66 (41.0%)
#3 Minnesota 3.45 (43.0%) vs #4 MICHIGAN TECH 3.91 (57.0%)
#3 Minnesota 3.78 (45.9%) vs #5 NORTHERN MICHIGAN 4.05 (54.1%)
WCHA Tournament Semifinals Finals Champions
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#1 Minnesota-Duluth BYE 61.8% 36.5%
#4 Michigan Tech 52.7% 20.7% 10.0%
#5 Northern Michigan 47.3% 17.5% 8.0%
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#2 Wisconsin BYE 63.2% 31.7%
#3 Minnesota BYE 36.8% 13.8%
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Timothy J. Danehy [log in to unmask]
Robin H. Lock [log in to unmask]
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