First off, let's take care of some unfinished business by quickly
recapping how CHODR did the past couple of weeks. We forgot to recap the
week that ended on February 28, which was a good week for the system as it
correctly picked 33 games and missed only 9. This past week (ending on
March 7) wasn't as good as the system went 22-14 on predicting winners.
Secondly, there have been a few recent inquiries as to how the CHODR
predictions are calculated. The predictions come directly from the
ratings, as determined by the following formulas as given in the original
CHODR introduction:
> Team A's predicted goals = A's Offensive Rating
> + B's Defensive Rating
> - Average Offensive/Defensive Rating
> +/- Home Ice Advantage
>
> Team B's predicted goals = B's Offensive Rating
> + A's Defensive Rating
> - Average Offensive/Defensive Rating
> +/- Home Ice Advantage
>
>The Average Rating is subtracted from each team's predicted score
>because the average is already included in each teams rating, so it
>ends up getting included twice when the ratings are summed. The Home
>Ice Advantage value gets added to the home team's predicted score and
>subtracted from the away team's predicted score. No adjustment is
>made for a game on neutral ice. The Home Ice Advantage value used in
>the system is +/- 0.375 goals per game, since home teams have, on
>average, outscored their opposition by about 0.75 goals per game in
>Division I in recent years.
If you missed the full CHODR introduction and would like to have it sent
to you, please respond by private mail.
Note: the predictions below will be slightly different than those based
on the CHODR ratings published earlier because the results of the two ECAC
preliminary round games are included here.
And now for this week's predictions, and, as promised, something new to go
with them - probabilities. We've listed the predictions in the normal
fashion for those who just want "the latest line" but a summary for each
series is included below. The summary includes information such as the
chance of a win for each team in each game, along with overall chances of
winning the series. There is alot of information that you may find fun
and interesting. First, a bit of mathematical explanation for those who
are curious.
The predicted scores produced by CHODR are not meant to be an exact
estimate of the outcome for any one game. What the predicted scores
reflect is an estimate of the average score if a very large number of
games were played between the two teams. Of course, the score in any one
game could be quite differerent from the average, or expected score,
otherwise we wouldn't bother to play. However, we would expect that the
most common scores are those close to the average score, and that as we
move further away from the average, those scores become less and less
likely.
The Poisson Random Variable Distribution is the method we use to model
this scenario. This distribution is used to model variables which take on
integral values such as 0, 1, 2, 3, etc... (looks like possible values
for hockey scores, doesn't it?). Given a single paramater which is the
expected value (not necessarily an integer), i.e. the predicted score, it
provides the probabilities that the value is 0, is 1, is 2, and so on.
The distribution has the property that the sum of P(N)*N, where N is all
the integers, will be the original expected value. Therefore, although
the value for any one trial may not be the expected value (how can a team
score 4.3 goals?), the average value for a large number of trials will
match the expected value in this distribution.
So there you go - we know the probability that Team A will score 0, 1, 2,
etc.. goals based on their expected value and we can do the same for their
opponent Team B. To compute the probability that Team A will win we
simply take all the possible combinations of the two such that Team A
scores more goals than Team B. We can do the same for B and whatever is
left over is the chance we go to overtime. Here we are concerned not with
how many goals are scored, but who scores first so we look at the rate at
which each team scores. We use a similar mechanism known as an Exponential
Random Variable, which models the time until some expected event takes place
(i.e. the game winning goal), based on the rate at which the events occur
(from the predicted score).
With me so far? The rest is easy, once we have the probabilities of a win
for each team in a game, accounting for the appropriate overtime scenario
(none, 5-minute, sudden-death), we can compute all our interesting numbers
as appropriate for the playoff format in each league (summarized below)
using standard probability theory.
While that is by no means a complete explanation of all the math involved,
it does cover the basics. Questions are of course welcome, but please
send private mail to BOTH of us and NOT the list.
First, a quick summary of the upcoming action. Not surprisingly, the home
teams (higher seeds) are favored in every game.
ECAC:
Two games with no OT. If series tied, third game with sudden death OT.
#10 Princeton 1.89 at #1 HARVARD 4.89
#9 Colgate 2.30 at #2 RPI 5.25
#6 St Lawrence 2.78 at #3 CLARKSON 4.87
#5 Yale 3.97 at #4 BROWN 5.25
Hockey East:
Two games with 5 min OT. If series tied, sudden death after 2nd game.
#8 Northeastern 1.98 at #1 MAINE 7.57
#7 Boston College 2.15 at #2 BOSTON UNIVERSITY 5.85
#6 Merrimack 2.99 at #3 NEW HAMPSHIRE 5.41
#5 Providence 3.40 at #4 UMASS-LOWELL 4.36
CCHA:
Best of three games, each to completion (sudden death OT).
#12 Ohio State 1.47 at #1 MIAMI 6.73
#11 Notre Dame 1.14 at #2 MICHIGAN 6.72
#10 Illinois-Chicago 1.95 at #3 LAKE SUPERIOR 5.49
#9 Kent 2.90 at #4 MICHIGAN STATE 5.08
#8 Bowling Green 3.55 at #5 WESTERN MICHIGAN 4.51
#7 Alaska-Fairbanks 3.65 at #6 FERRIS STATE 4.00
WCHA:
Best of three games, each to completion (sudden death OT).
#10 Alaska-Anchorage 1.77 at #1 MINNESOTA-DULUTH 5.24
#9 Colorado College 2.78 at #2 WISCONSIN 5.91
#8 North Dakota 3.03 at #3 MINNESOTA 4.74
#7 St Cloud 2.89 at #4 MICHIGAN TECH 4.16
#6 Denver 3.31 at #5 NORTHERN MICHIGAN 4.68
Now the summaries (with probabilities) for each series. If you're going
to the games (of course you are), print out a copy of the series summary
to bring along. It will give you something to talk about in between
periods. Hopefully it's self-explanatory.
In the ECAC:
First two games are played Friday, March 12 and Saturday, March 13 with no
overtime. If series is tied (split or two ties), a third game is played
Sunday, March 14. If tied at the end of regulation, this game will be
played in sudden death overtime until someone wins. Therefore, for the
first two games see the "In Regulation" column for each teams chances.
The overall chances apply only in the third game.
#10 Princeton 1.89 at
#1 Harvard 4.89 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Princeton wins: 10.5% 8.2% 2.3% (27.9%)
Chance Harvard wins: 89.5% 83.5% 5.9% (72.1%)
Chance of a tie: 8.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 6:08
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Princeton wins in two games: 2.0%
Chance Harvard wins in two games: 83.5%
Chance of a third game: 14.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Princeton wins series: 3.6%
Chance Harvard wins series: 96.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Princeton wins game #1:
Chance Princeton wins series: 25.3%
Chance Harvard wins series: 74.7%
If Harvard wins game #1:
Chance Princeton wins series: 0.9%
Chance Harvard wins series: 99.1%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#9 Colgate 2.30 at
#2 RPI 5.25 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Colgate wins: 12.4% 9.8% 2.6% (30.4%)
Chance RPI wins: 87.6% 81.7% 5.9% (69.6%)
Chance of a tie: 8.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:31
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Colgate wins in two games: 2.6%
Chance RPI wins in two games: 80.6%
Chance of a third game: 16.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Colgate wins series: 4.7%
Chance RPI wins series: 95.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Colgate wins game #1:
Chance Colgate wins series: 28.4%
Chance RPI wins series: 71.6%
If RPI wins game #1:
Chance Colgate wins series: 1.2%
Chance RPI wins series: 98.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#6 St Lawrence 2.78 at
#3 Clarkson 4.87 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance St Lawrence wins: 21.2% 17.1% 4.1% (36.4%)
Chance Clarkson wins: 78.8% 71.7% 7.1% (63.6%)
Chance of a tie: 11.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:26
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance St Lawrence wins in two games: 6.7%
Chance Clarkson wins in two games: 67.5%
Chance of a third game: 25.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance St Lawrence wins series: 12.2%
Chance Clarkson wins series: 87.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If St Lawrence wins game #1:
Chance St Lawrence wins series: 43.5%
Chance Clarkson wins series: 56.5%
If Clarkson wins game #1:
Chance St Lawrence wins series: 3.6%
Chance Clarkson wins series: 96.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#5 Yale 3.97 at
#4 Brown 5.25 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Yale wins: 33.0% 27.7% 5.3% (43.1%)
Chance Brown wins: 67.0% 60.0% 7.0% (56.9%)
Chance of a tie: 12.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 4:31
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Yale wins in two games: 14.5%
Chance Brown wins in two games: 50.7%
Chance of a third game: 34.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Yale wins series: 26.0%
Chance Brown wins series: 74.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Yale wins game #1:
Chance Yale wins series: 59.8%
Chance Brown wins series: 40.2%
If Brown wins game #1:
Chance Yale wins series: 9.2%
Chance Brown wins series: 90.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
In Hockey East:
Two games are played Friday, March 12 and Saturday, March 13 with five
minute overtimes if needed. If series is tied (split or two ties), sudden
death overtime will be played following the second game. Overall
probabilites are based on five minute overtimes. A separate line details
possibilities for the sudden death overtime if needed.
#8 Northeastern 1.98 at
#1 Maine 7.57 In 5 Minute
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Northeastern wins: 2.1% 1.9% 0.3% (11.4%)
Chance Maine wins: 96.8% 95.7% 1.0% (43.5%)
Chance of a tie: 1.1% 2.4% 1.1% (45.1%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 4:21
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If series is tied after two games, sudden death overtime is played:
Chance Northeastern wins: 20.7%
Chance Maine wins: 79.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Northeastern wins in two games: 0.1%
Chance Maine wins in two games: 95.8%
Chance of sudden death overtime: 4.1%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Northeastern wins series: 1.0%
Chance Maine wins series: 99.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Northeastern wins game #1:
Chance Northeastern wins series: 23.3%
Chance Maine wins series: 76.7%
If Maine wins game #1:
Chance Northeastern wins series: 0.4%
Chance Maine wins series: 99.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#7 Boston College 2.15 at
#2 Boston University 5.85 In 5 Minute
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Boston College wins: 7.0% 6.2% 0.8% (13.1%)
Chance Boston University wins: 89.8% 87.6% 2.2% (35.6%)
Chance of a tie: 3.2% 6.2% 3.2% (51.3%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:12
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If series is tied after two games, sudden death overtime is played:
Chance Boston College wins: 26.9%
Chance Boston University wins: 73.1%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Boston College wins in two games: 0.9%
Chance Boston University wins in two games: 86.3%
Chance of sudden death overtime: 12.7%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Boston College wins series: 4.4%
Chance Boston University wins series: 95.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Boston College wins game #1:
Chance Boston College wins series: 34.4%
Chance Boston University wins series: 65.6%
If Boston University wins game #1:
Chance Boston College wins series: 1.9%
Chance Boston University wins series: 98.1%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#6 Merrimack 2.99 at
#3 New Hampshire 5.41 In 5 Minute
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Merrimack wins: 17.1% 15.3% 1.8% (17.9%)
Chance New Hampshire wins: 77.9% 74.7% 3.2% (32.4%)
Chance of a tie: 5.0% 10.0% 5.0% (49.6%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 4:57
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If series is tied after two games, sudden death overtime is played:
Chance Merrimack wins: 35.6%
Chance New Hampshire wins: 64.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Merrimack wins in two games: 4.6%
Chance New Hampshire wins in two games: 68.5%
Chance of sudden death overtime: 26.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Merrimack wins series: 14.2%
Chance New Hampshire wins series: 85.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Merrimack wins game #1:
Chance Merrimack wins series: 49.8%
Chance New Hampshire wins series: 50.2%
If New Hampshire wins game #1:
Chance Merrimack wins series: 6.1%
Chance New Hampshire wins series: 93.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#5 Providence 3.40 at
#4 UMass-Lowell 4.36 In 5 Minute
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Providence wins: 32.6% 29.7% 2.9% (20.8%)
Chance UMass-Lowell wins: 60.2% 56.5% 3.7% (26.8%)
Chance of a tie: 7.2% 13.8% 7.2% (52.4%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:22
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If series is tied after two games, sudden death overtime is played:
Chance Providence wins: 43.8%
Chance UMass-Lowell wins: 56.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Providence wins in two games: 15.3%
Chance UMass-Lowell wins in two games: 44.9%
Chance of sudden death overtime: 39.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Providence wins series: 32.8%
Chance UMass-Lowell wins series: 67.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Providence wins game #1:
Chance Providence wins series: 66.2%
Chance UMass-Lowell wins series: 33.8%
If UMass-Lowell wins game #1:
Chance Providence wins series: 14.3%
Chance UMass-Lowell wins series: 85.7%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
In the CCHA:
Best of three series is played on Friday, March 12, Saturday, March 13,
and Sunday, March 14 if necessary. If tied after regulation, each game is
played in sudden death overtime to completion, until someone wins. This
is the same format as the WCHA.
#12 Ohio State 1.47 at
#1 Miami 6.73 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Ohio State wins: 2.0% 1.6% 0.4% (17.9%)
Chance Miami wins: 98.0% 96.0% 2.0% (82.1%)
Chance of a tie: 2.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:05
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Ohio State wins in two games: 0.0%
Chance Miami wins in two games: 96.1%
Chance of a third game: 3.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Ohio State wins series: 0.1%
Chance Miami wins series: 99.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Ohio State wins game #1:
Chance Ohio State wins series: 3.9%
Chance Miami wins series: 96.1%
If Miami wins game #1:
Chance Ohio State wins series: 0.0%
Chance Miami wins series: 100.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#11 Notre Dame 1.14 at
#2 Michigan 6.72 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Notre Dame wins: 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% (14.5%)
Chance Michigan wins: 98.9% 97.4% 1.5% (85.5%)
Chance of a tie: 1.7%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:17
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Notre Dame wins in two games: 0.0%
Chance Michigan wins in two games: 97.7%
Chance of a third game: 2.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Notre Dame wins series: 0.0%
Chance Michigan wins series: 100.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Notre Dame wins game #1:
Chance Notre Dame wins series: 2.3%
Chance Michigan wins series: 97.7%
If Michigan wins game #1:
Chance Notre Dame wins series: 0.0%
Chance Michigan wins series: 100.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#10 Illinois-Chicago 1.95 at
#3 Lake Superior 5.49 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Illinois-Chicago wins: 8.0% 6.2% 1.7% (26.3%)
Chance Lake Superior wins: 92.0% 87.2% 4.8% (73.7%)
Chance of a tie: 6.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:35
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Illinois-Chicago wins in two games: 0.6%
Chance Lake Superior wins in two games: 84.7%
Chance of a third game: 14.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Illinois-Chicago wins series: 1.8%
Chance Lake Superior wins series: 98.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Illinois-Chicago wins game #1:
Chance Illinois-Chicago wins series: 15.3%
Chance Lake Superior wins series: 84.7%
If Lake Superior wins game #1:
Chance Illinois-Chicago wins series: 0.6%
Chance Lake Superior wins series: 99.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#9 Kent 2.90 at
#4 Michigan State 5.08 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Kent wins: 20.7% 16.8% 3.9% (36.3%)
Chance Michigan State wins: 79.3% 72.4% 6.9% (63.7%)
Chance of a tie: 10.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:13
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Kent wins in two games: 4.3%
Chance Michigan State wins in two games: 62.9%
Chance of a third game: 32.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Kent wins series: 11.1%
Chance Michigan State wins series: 88.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Kent wins game #1:
Chance Kent wins series: 37.1%
Chance Michigan State wins series: 62.9%
If Michigan State wins game #1:
Chance Kent wins series: 4.3%
Chance Michigan State wins series: 95.7%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#8 Bowling Green 3.55 at
#5 Western Michigan 4.51 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Bowling Green wins: 36.1% 30.1% 6.0% (44.0%)
Chance Western Michigan wins: 63.9% 56.3% 7.6% (56.0%)
Chance of a tie: 13.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:10
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Bowling Green wins in two games: 13.0%
Chance Western Michigan wins in two games: 40.8%
Chance of a third game: 46.1%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Bowling Green wins series: 29.7%
Chance Western Michigan wins series: 70.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Bowling Green wins game #1:
Chance Bowling Green wins series: 59.2%
Chance Western Michigan wins series: 40.8%
If Western Michigan wins game #1:
Chance Bowling Green wins series: 13.0%
Chance Western Michigan wins series: 87.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#7 Alaska-Fairbanks 3.65 at
#6 Ferris State 4.00 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Alaska-Fairbanks wins: 44.7% 37.8% 7.0% (47.7%)
Chance Ferris State wins: 55.3% 47.7% 7.6% (52.3%)
Chance of a tie: 14.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:26
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Alaska-Fairbanks wins in two games: 20.0%
Chance Ferris State wins in two games: 30.6%
Chance of a third game: 49.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Alaska-Fairbanks wins series: 42.1%
Chance Ferris State wins series: 57.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Alaska-Fairbanks wins game #1:
Chance Alaska-Fairbanks wins series: 69.4%
Chance Ferris State wins series: 30.6%
If Ferris State wins game #1:
Chance Alaska-Fairbanks wins series: 20.0%
Chance Ferris State wins series: 80.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
In the WCHA:
Best of three series is played on Friday, March 12, Saturday, March 13,
and Sunday, March 14 if necessary. If tied after regulation, each game is
played in sudden death overtime to completion, until someone wins. This
is the same format as the CCHA.
#10 Alaska-Anchorage 1.77 at
#1 Minnesota-Duluth 5.24 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Alaska-Anchorage wins: 7.6% 5.9% 1.7% (25.3%)
Chance Minnesota-Duluth wins: 92.4% 87.5% 4.9% (74.7%)
Chance of a tie: 6.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:56
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Alaska-Anchorage wins in two games: 0.6%
Chance Minnesota-Duluth wins in two games: 85.4%
Chance of a third game: 14.0%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Alaska-Anchorage wins series: 1.6%
Chance Minnesota-Duluth wins series: 98.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Alaska-Anchorage wins game #1:
Chance Alaska-Anchorage wins series: 14.6%
Chance Minnesota-Duluth wins series: 85.4%
If Minnesota-Duluth wins game #1:
Chance Alaska-Anchorage wins series: 0.6%
Chance Minnesota-Duluth wins series: 99.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#9 Colorado College 2.78 at
#2 Wisconsin 5.91 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Colorado College wins: 12.9% 10.4% 2.5% (32.0%)
Chance Wisconsin wins: 87.1% 81.7% 5.4% (68.0%)
Chance of a tie: 7.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 4:47
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Colorado College wins in two games: 1.7%
Chance Wisconsin wins in two games: 75.8%
Chance of a third game: 22.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Colorado College wins series: 4.6%
Chance Wisconsin wins series: 95.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Colorado College wins game #1:
Chance Colorado College wins series: 24.2%
Chance Wisconsin wins series: 75.8%
If Wisconsin wins game #1:
Chance Colorado College wins series: 1.7%
Chance Wisconsin wins series: 98.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#8 North Dakota 3.03 at
#3 Minnesota 4.74 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance North Dakota wins: 25.9% 21.1% 4.8% (39.0%)
Chance Minnesota wins: 74.1% 66.7% 7.4% (61.0%)
Chance of a tie: 12.2%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:21
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance North Dakota wins in two games: 6.7%
Chance Minnesota wins in two games: 55.0%
Chance of a third game: 38.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance North Dakota wins series: 16.6%
Chance Minnesota wins series: 83.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If North Dakota wins game #1:
Chance North Dakota wins series: 45.0%
Chance Minnesota wins series: 55.0%
If Minnesota wins game #1:
Chance North Dakota wins series: 6.7%
Chance Minnesota wins series: 93.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#7 St Cloud 2.89 at
#4 Michigan Tech 4.16 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance St Cloud wins: 30.7% 25.0% 5.7% (41.0%)
Chance Michigan Tech wins: 69.3% 61.2% 8.1% (59.0%)
Chance of a tie: 13.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:54
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance St Cloud wins in two games: 9.4%
Chance Michigan Tech wins in two games: 48.0%
Chance of a third game: 42.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance St Cloud wins series: 22.5%
Chance Michigan Tech wins series: 77.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If St Cloud wins game #1:
Chance St Cloud wins series: 52.0%
Chance Michigan Tech wins series: 48.0%
If Michigan Tech wins game #1:
Chance St Cloud wins series: 9.4%
Chance Michigan Tech wins series: 90.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
#5 Denver 3.31 at
#4 Northern Michigan 4.68 In Sudden Death
Overall Regulation Overtime
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Denver wins: 30.5% 25.1% 5.3% (41.4%)
Chance Northern Michigan wins: 69.5% 62.0% 7.5% (58.6%)
Chance of a tie: 12.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expected time of Game Winning Goal (in Overtime): 5:12
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Denver wins in two games: 9.3%
Chance Northern Michigan wins in two games: 48.3%
Chance of a third game: 42.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Chance Denver wins series: 22.2%
Chance Northern Michigan wins series: 77.8%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
If Denver wins game #1:
Chance Denver wins series: 51.7%
Chance Northern Michigan wins series: 48.3%
If Northern Michigan wins game #1:
Chance Denver wins series: 9.3%
Chance Northern Michigan wins series: 90.7%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Timothy J. Danehy [log in to unmask]
Robin H. Lock [log in to unmask]
|
