Mark writes:
>Ted asks:
>> But I wanna know, why BC didn't
>> lose a spot.
>
>I agree that it seems strange for BC not to drop, but who should
>move ahead of them?
>7. Boston University - similar record but BC holds 3-1 head to head advantage
>8. Wisconsin - maybe, but not as good a record
>9. Providence - Finished 4th regular season, BC holds 2-1 head to head adv.
>10. Clarkson - already moved up two notches, BC beat them
>teams 11-13 have worse records than BC...
>
>So while the loss should theoretically lower their stature, I
>couldn't picture any team moving ahead of BC just on last week's
>performance. Just my $.02 worth
Mark seems to be somewhat on the money, but let's see if I can take it a
bit further. Ted, you are letting yourself be roped into believing that
TCHCR works just like your average voted-on Top 10/15/20 poll, and it
doesn't. In the polls, voters seem to believe that if a team loses it
should drop one or more spots, and if it wins, particularly against a
high-ranked team, it should move up. The beauty of TCHCR is that it
allows for such upsets as a Northeastern beating a BC without it
heavily affecting a team's ranking.
Also, consider this: BU, the team right behind BC, played Merrimack,
which wasn't much better than Northeastern. Still, BU did gain slightly
on BC because it won and BC lost. However, one factor that worked AGAINST
BU was that one of its opponents, BC, effectively became a little bit
worse by losing to NU (although NU winning almost canceled this out).
TCHCR 2/24:
Last Division I Schedule Schedule
Rank Week Team Record Rating Strength Rank
6 5 Boston College 27 9 0 88.78 61.07 17
7 7 Boston University 22 10 2 84.21 61.79 13
8 8 Wisconsin 24 11 3 80.79 62.68 10
9 9 Providence 19 9 2 78.40 58.51 19
10 11 North Dakota 21 15 2 73.27 64.33 5
11 12 New Hampshire 22 10 2 72.30 53.21 25
12 10 Clarkson 20 7 2 72.14 46.75 32
TCHCR 3/3:
6 6 Boston College 27 10 0 86.01 60.63 17
7 7 Boston University 23 10 2 84.76 61.08 15
8 8 Wisconsin 26 11 3 82.32 62.18 11
9 9 Providence 20 9 2 79.71 58.79 19
10 12 Clarkson 22 7 2 73.46 45.97 34
11 10 North Dakota 23 16 2 73.42 63.67 7
12 11 New Hampshire 22 11 2 71.21 54.19 24
Note the following:
1) The difference in rating between BU & BC dropped. Now, you cannot
use the actual rating to determine whether a team improved or not
over a week because the ratings are normalized so that the top team
is always given a rating of 100.00 and the 44th team is given a
rating of 0.00. But the *difference* in rating can show how one team
improves or gets worse relative to another team.
2) BU's schedule strength got worse because it beat Merrimack in the first
round. BC's schedule strength got a *little* worse because it played
Northeastern - but NU won against a very good team (BC), making NU a
slightly *better* team and preventing BC's schedule strength from
dropping as much as it would have if BC had won!
3) Relative to BC, BU/Wis/Prov/Clark/NorthDak all improved. And they all
won their games/series. UNH improved, but not very much; they also
lost their first round game, but it was to Providence, a much better
team according to TCHCR than Northeastern. North Dakota's loss to St
Cloud in their best-of-three series (which ND won 2-1) caused them to
only gain a little, not as much as if they had swept SCSU. It also
allowed Clarkson, which swept its series with Yale, to jump ahead of
them.
Keith's mail has just arrived, and as I think this augments rather than
duplicates his answer, I will still send this out.
- mike
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