Using the CHODR ratings (found at http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr and the
"Off" and "Def" columns below) we can forecast the expected scoring
rates for this coming weekend's NCAA tourney games - then use those
scoring rates to predict the probability of each team advancing to the
next round (assuming Poisson distributions of scores). The results are
given below
WOMEN'S FROZEN FOUR Off Def Round1 Round2
1 Minnesota 4.96 1.13 0.785 0.491
2 Harvard 3.82 1.00 0.743 0.370
3 St. Lawrence 3.48 1.63 0.257 0.063
4 Dartmouth 4.00 1.70 0.215 0.076
EAST
Off Def Round1 Round2
1 Maine 3.50 1.40 0.823 0.567
2 Ohio State 3.44 2.34 0.430 0.144
3 Wisconsin 3.04 1.78 0.570 0.231
4 Harvard 2.86 2.58 0.177 0.059
NORTHEAST Off Def Round1 Round2
1 Boston College 3.91 1.63 0.910 0.641
2 Michigan 3.58 2.26 0.520 0.182
3 New Hampshire 3.80 2.49 0.480 0.158
4 Niagara 2.65 3.25 0.089 0.017
MIDWEST
Off Def Round1 Round2
1 Minnesota 4.77 2.24 0.757 0.429
2 Minnesota-Duluth 4.39 2.12 0.640 0.350
3 Michigan State 3.32 2.12 0.359 0.146
4 Notre Dame 2.86 2.29 0.242 0.075
WEST
Off Def Round1 Round2
1 North Dakota 4.76 1.74 0.955 0.746
2 Denver 3.64 2.28 0.575 0.152
3 Miami 3.32 2.41 0.424 0.090
4 Holy Cross 2.26 3.24 0.040 0.007
--
Robin H. Lock
Burry Professor of Statistics
Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics
St. Lawrence University
Canton, NY 13617
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